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Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

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Leading members of the German Social Democrats, the Greens Party and the German Free Democrats arrive to present their mutually-agreed on coalition contract on November 24, 2021 in Berlin. If the parties' members approve the agreement, the Bundestag is likely to hold a vote to appoint SPD leader Olaf Scholz as chancellor the week of Dec. 6.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Germany's Coalition Moves Forward, JCPOA Talks Resume

U.S.-Iran Relations

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Eurasia

A protester is seen in the window of the seized main government building, known as the White House, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 6, 2020. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

The overnight seizure of government buildings cast doubt over President Jeenbekov’s continued rule, but the crisis is unlikely to shift the country’s overall policy direction.

In Kyrgyzstan, Protests Challenge the President’s Place in Power

Security

The New Silk Road

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. 

<p>Eurasia is the world&rsquo;s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia&rsquo;s farthest reaches &mdash; a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia&rsquo;s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

The Jihadist Wars

Moscow Looks to the East

Instability in Central Asia

A second military base in Kyrgyzstan would not only help Russia stem militancy but would also bolster its position as the outside power with the greatest influence in Central Asia as the U.S. floats an Afghan withdrawal.

Russia, Kyrgyzstan: A Second Russian Military Base Moves Closer to Reality as Regional Security Realigns

Anti-Chinese demonstrations and social media activity is expected to grow as China continues to expand its economic footprint in Kyrgyzstan.

China in Transition

A few hundred people rallied this week in the Kyrgyz capital against Chinese migrants and economic ties. Such resistance is likely to grow as Beijing's presence in the region expands.

Kyrgyzstan: The Importance of an Anti-Chinese Protest in Central Asia

2019 Annual Forecast

2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Kyrgyzstan's government filed a lawsuit that would close the local affiliate of U.S.-funded broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Eurasianet reported Jan. 24.

Kyrgyzstan: Government Threatens to Close RFERL Kyrgyz Service in Lawsuit

Environment, Science & Technology

Fighting along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border that initially commenced on Sept. 14 has resumed and spread to additional border points, leaving several people dead, dozens wounded and thousands forced to evacuate the affected areas, Eurasianet reported Sept. 16.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan agreed to operationalize a railway economic corridor between China and Afghanistan, Ariana News reported Sept. 11.

Afghanistan, China: Beijing to Transport Goods to Afghanistan Through Central Asia

The Islamic State's Afghanistan branch has in recent weeks ramped up the production, translation and dissemination of propaganda directed at Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz speakers in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, publishing several books and audio messages in Central Asian languages, Eurasianet reported March 18.

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Parties allied with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov secured a majority of parliamentary seats, while several opposition parties that failed to meet the 5% parliamentary threshold claimed widespread fraud, RFE/RL reported Nov. 28.

Kyrgyzstan: Presidential Allies Secure Parliamentary Majority Amid Record Low Turnout 

Energy

Kyrgyzstan warned its Central Asian neighbors that it will begin releasing less water through the Toktogul reservoir on the Naryn River, Eurasianet reported Nov. 8.

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Environmental Issues

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Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

The Pulse of Political Islam

Russia hosted the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan, and neighboring representatives reaffirmed their recognition of Afghanistan’s sovereignty, as well as the need for practical engagement with the country, Ariana News reported Oct. 21.

Afghanistan: Neighboring Countries Reaffirm Kabul’s Sovereignty

Kyrgyz and Tajik military forces exchanged gunfire across their border on April 29 after a day of confrontations in which citizens on either side threw rocks at each other in a dispute over water infrastructure, Reuters has reported.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Militaries Exchange Gunfire at Border in Water Dispute

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Located in the southeast corner of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan borders China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan is land-locked and almost entirely mountainous, making economic development difficult. The country has some mineral resources such as gold, but it does not have significant deposits of oil or natural gas. Consequently, Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest states of the former Soviet Union.     Its mountainous terrain fosters significant internal political and social divisions, particularly between its northern and southern regions. Kyrgyzstan has two population and political cores distinct from each other — one in the capital of Bishkek and the other in the corridor between Osh and Jalal-Abad. This has created an unstable post-independence political environment in the country, with Kyrgyzstan experiencing two revolutions in the past seven years alone.    In 1924, Josef Stalin shaped borders in Central Asia to deliberately divide the Fergana Valley region and its people into three political entities. Kyrgyzstan's large Uzbek and Tajik minority populations in the south, as well as disputes over its limited water resources, have led to tensions and frequent border disputes with its neighbors.    Despite the economic, security and political difficulties created by its geography, Kyrgyzstan's strategic location makes it an area of competition between larger powers. Russia is Kyrgyzstan's largest trading partner, and the country hosts a Russian military base in Kant. The United States also has an air base in Manas, a key transit point for NATO military operations in nearby Afghanistan. Taking advantage of this external competition while trying to overcome internal weaknesses shapes Kyrgyzstan's strategy.

Kyrgyz Republic

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SITUATION REPORTS

Kyrgyzstan: Government Threatens to Close RFERL Kyrgyz Service in Lawsuit

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Afghanistan, China: Beijing to Transport Goods to Afghanistan Through Central Asia

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Kyrgyzstan: Presidential Allies Secure Parliamentary Majority Amid Record Low Turnout

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Afghanistan: Neighboring Countries Reaffirm Kabul’s Sovereignty

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Militaries Exchange Gunfire at Border in Water Dispute

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