Assessments

Romania

Russia

Moldova

Power lines are seen on the outskirts of Balti, the second-largest city in Moldova, on Nov. 2, 2022. 

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia’s gas cut-offs are making Moldova increasingly vulnerable, with widespread blackouts, rampant inflation and growing pro-Russian anti-government protests. 

Will Moldova Be the First To Fall in Russia’s Energy War on Europe?

Snapshots

Ukraine

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022. 

On top of destabilizing Moldova's pro-EU government, the attacks in Transdniestria could distract Kyiv from Moscow's eastern offensive by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine.

Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War

Security

The Ukraine Conflict

Refugees from Ukraine walk at the Ukrainian-Romanian border in Siret on March 2, 2022. Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

Romania's Security and Social Challenges, and Political Benefits, From the Ukraine War

Europe

Georgia

French President Emmanuel Macron (left) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an Eastern Partnership summit at the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Dec. 15, 2021. 

European Disintegration

These countries will probably receive more EU funding and political support to help fend off threats from Russia, but they're unlikely to join the bloc anytime soon.

For Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, EU Aid Remains More Likely Than Accession

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks with journalists outside a polling station in Chisinau on July 11, 2021. 

 To secure its influence over the ex-Soviet state, Russia will work to undermine the new parliament’s attempts to boost cooperation with the West. 

Moldova Elects Its Most Pro-EU Government Yet

Guidance

United States

China

Philippines

Germany

Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks during a joint press conference at the White House on April 27, 2018, in Washington, D.C. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Moldova and a Biden-Merkel Meeting

Algeria

India

Biden and Trump campaign signs are displayed as voters line up to cast their ballots during early voting Oct. 30, 2020, at the Alafaya Branch Library in Orlando, Florida. 

The Weekly Rundown: Election Day in the United States

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Eurasia

<p>Eurasia is the world&rsquo;s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia&rsquo;s farthest reaches &mdash; a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia&rsquo;s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Belarus

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is looking to make inroads against Russia during a visit to its periphery.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The U.S. national security adviser is on a tour of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in a bid to make inroads against the Kremlin. 

On Russia's Borders, Bolton Probes for Openings for the U.S.

Moldova's pro-Russian and pro-EU factions have formed a coalition, but their partnership seems destined to fail.

Echoes of the Cold War

The frontier state's pro-Russian and pro-EU blocs have banded together to oust a common foe, but their vastly differing foreign orientations will make them awkward partners.

In Moldova, Political Paralysis Is Never Far Away

Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned a year and a half into her government's mandate, automatically triggering the resignation of the entire Cabinet, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported Feb. 10.

Moldova: Prime Minister's Resignation Triggers Cabinet Overhaul, Reignites Instability Fears

Russian gas giant Gazprom declined to follow through on its Nov. 23 threat to reduce natural gas flows through Ukraine to Moldova, Reuters reported Nov. 28.

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Lifts Immediate Threat to Natural Gas Deliveries Through Ukraine

Russian gas giant Gazprom threatened to reduce its gas flows to Europe via Ukraine, Bloomberg reported Nov. 22.

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Threatens to Reduce Gas Flows to Europe Through Ukraine

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 12 Moldovan entities and nine individuals, including two Moldovan oligarchs "widely recognized for capturing and corrupting Moldova's political and economic institutions and those acting as instruments of Russia's global influence campaign," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported Oct. 26.

Moldova: U.S. Tries to Keep Moldova Outside Russia's Orbit by Expanding Sanctions

Moldovan President Maia Sandu called on the government to give special powers to security forces to crack down on a street protest movement that she said intends to install a pro-Russia leadership, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported Oct. 11.

Moldova: President Asks to Expand Police Powers Amid Pro-Russia Protests

The 27 leaders of the European Union agreed to grant EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, Euractiv reported June 23.

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: EU Grants Candidate Status to Ukraine, Moldova

The European Commission recommended that Ukraine and Moldova be granted candidate status to eventually join the European Union, Bloomberg reported June 17.

Ukraine, Moldova: European Commission Recommends EU Candidate Status

Instability in Central Asia

Moldova's pro-Russia former President Igor Dodon has been arrested in Moldova's capital of Chisinau on suspicion of high treason and other charges including corruption, Deutsche Welle reported May 24.

Moldova: Former President Under Investigation on Treason and Corruption Charges

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Grenada

Mongolia

Moldova is a landlocked country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania. Like its immediate neighbors, Moldova is a borderland state contested between Russia and the West.    Moldova's small size, flat terrain and strategic location on the Bessarabian gap has made it vulnerable to invasion and control by outside powers throughout its history. The territory that now makes up Moldova was contested between the Ottoman and Russian empires in the 19th century. In the 20th century, the Romanians, Germans and Soviets fought for control over its territory. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moldova became an independent state for the first time in modern history, with its economic, political and demographic core located in the capital of Chisinau.    Independence has not removed external competition for influence over Moldova. The country's political system is roughly evenly divided between pro-Russian and pro-European Union groups that clash &mdash; sometimes violently &mdash; over the country's orientation toward Moscow or toward the West. Moldova is also divided geographically, with the territory of Transdniestria breaking away from Chisinau's control in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Transdniestria remains de facto out of the control of the Moldovan government and is supported financially and militarily by Russia. Coping with these various internal and external divisions is Moldova's primary geographic challenge.

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Poland

Ukrainian rescuers work Jan. 9, 2023, at a local market in Shevchenkove village, Kharkiv region, after a Russian missile strike. The Russia-Ukraine war will likely continue through 2023.

SITUATION REPORTS

Moldova: Prime Minister's Resignation Triggers Cabinet Overhaul, Reignites Instability Fears

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Lifts Immediate Threat to Natural Gas Deliveries Through Ukraine

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Threatens to Reduce Gas Flows to Europe Through Ukraine

Moldova: U.S. Tries to Keep Moldova Outside Russia's Orbit by Expanding Sanctions

Moldova: President Asks to Expand Police Powers Amid Pro-Russia Protests

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: EU Grants Candidate Status to Ukraine, Moldova

Ukraine, Moldova: European Commission Recommends EU Candidate Status

Moldova: Former President Under Investigation on Treason and Corruption Charges

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