Europe

Ukraine

Moldova

Politics

The European Commission recommended opening accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova once they adopted certain key measures, Reuters reported on Nov. 8.

EU: European Commission Recommends Beginning Accession Negotiations for Ukraine, Moldova

Russia

Moldova's pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, or PAS, of President Maia Sandu came first in hundreds of local elections over the weekend, securing more than 40% of the total votes nationwide, Reuters reported on Nov. 6.

Moldova: Ruling Pro-EU Party Secures Most Votes in Local Elections, Suffers Defeats in Major Cities

Georgia

An internal update from the European Commission indicated that Ukraine and Moldova have made important progress in implementing key reforms to facilitate EU membership, while Georgia has made only limited progress, Euractiv reported on June 21.

EU: Bloc Reports on Eurasian Countries' Progress Toward EU Membership

Moldova's Constitutional Court declared the pro-Russian Shor Party "unconstitutional" and ordered its dissolution, Reuters reported on June 19.

Moldova: Constitutional Court Dissolves Pro-Russian Shor Party

Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned a year and a half into her government's mandate, automatically triggering the resignation of the entire Cabinet, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported Feb. 10.

Moldova: Prime Minister's Resignation Triggers Cabinet Overhaul, Reignites Instability Fears

Energy

Russian gas giant Gazprom declined to follow through on its Nov. 23 threat to reduce natural gas flows through Ukraine to Moldova, Reuters reported Nov. 28.

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Lifts Immediate Threat to Natural Gas Deliveries Through Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian gas giant Gazprom threatened to reduce its gas flows to Europe via Ukraine, Bloomberg reported Nov. 22.

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Threatens to Reduce Gas Flows to Europe Through Ukraine

United States

Economics

Military & Security

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 12 Moldovan entities and nine individuals, including two Moldovan oligarchs "widely recognized for capturing and corrupting Moldova's political and economic institutions and those acting as instruments of Russia's global influence campaign," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported Oct. 26.

Moldova: U.S. Tries to Keep Moldova Outside Russia's Orbit by Expanding Sanctions

Assessments

Israel

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Australia

China

India

U..S Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Oct. 14, 2023, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with his Arab counterparts Nov. 4 in the Jordanian capital in a bid to garner regional support for U.S. policies in the Israel-Hamas war.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Meets Arab Ministers, State Assembly Elections in India

Snapshots

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Romania

Power lines are seen on the outskirts of Balti, the second-largest city in Moldova, on Nov. 2, 2022. 

Russia’s gas cut-offs are making Moldova increasingly vulnerable, with widespread blackouts, rampant inflation and growing pro-Russian anti-government protests. 

Will Moldova Be the First To Fall in Russia’s Energy War on Europe?

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022. 

Security

The Ukraine Conflict

On top of destabilizing Moldova's pro-EU government, the attacks in Transdniestria could distract Kyiv from Moscow's eastern offensive by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine.

Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War

Refugees from Ukraine walk at the Ukrainian-Romanian border in Siret on March 2, 2022. Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

Romania's Security and Social Challenges, and Political Benefits, From the Ukraine War

French President Emmanuel Macron (left) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an Eastern Partnership summit at the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Dec. 15, 2021. 

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

European Disintegration

These countries will probably receive more EU funding and political support to help fend off threats from Russia, but they're unlikely to join the bloc anytime soon.

For Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, EU Aid Remains More Likely Than Accession

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks with journalists outside a polling station in Chisinau on July 11, 2021. 

 To secure its influence over the ex-Soviet state, Russia will work to undermine the new parliament’s attempts to boost cooperation with the West. 

Moldova Elects Its Most Pro-EU Government Yet

Guidance

Philippines

Germany

Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks during a joint press conference at the White House on April 27, 2018, in Washington, D.C. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Moldova and a Biden-Merkel Meeting

Algeria

Biden and Trump campaign signs are displayed as voters line up to cast their ballots during early voting Oct. 30, 2020, at the Alafaya Branch Library in Orlando, Florida. 

The Weekly Rundown: Election Day in the United States

Belarus

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is looking to make inroads against Russia during a visit to its periphery.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The U.S. national security adviser is on a tour of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova in a bid to make inroads against the Kremlin. 

On Russia's Borders, Bolton Probes for Openings for the U.S.

Moldova's pro-Russian and pro-EU factions have formed a coalition, but their partnership seems destined to fail.

Echoes of the Cold War

The frontier state's pro-Russian and pro-EU blocs have banded together to oust a common foe, but their vastly differing foreign orientations will make them awkward partners.

In Moldova, Political Paralysis Is Never Far Away

Moldovan President Igor Dodon (left) speaks during a news conference with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Dodon favors a shift toward Moscow. 

The European Union and Russia have battled for influence over the country for a decade. An upcoming vote could reorient the country more firmly toward Moscow.

Moldova's Elections Could Shift the Country's Focus East

Moldova is a landlocked country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania. Like its immediate neighbors, Moldova is a borderland state contested between Russia and the West.    Moldova's small size, flat terrain and strategic location on the Bessarabian gap has made it vulnerable to invasion and control by outside powers throughout its history. The territory that now makes up Moldova was contested between the Ottoman and Russian empires in the 19th century. In the 20th century, the Romanians, Germans and Soviets fought for control over its territory. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moldova became an independent state for the first time in modern history, with its economic, political and demographic core located in the capital of Chisinau.    Independence has not removed external competition for influence over Moldova. The country's political system is roughly evenly divided between pro-Russian and pro-European Union groups that clash &mdash; sometimes violently &mdash; over the country's orientation toward Moscow or toward the West. Moldova is also divided geographically, with the territory of Transdniestria breaking away from Chisinau's control in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Transdniestria remains de facto out of the control of the Moldovan government and is supported financially and militarily by Russia. Coping with these various internal and external divisions is Moldova's primary geographic challenge.

SITUATION REPORTS

EU: European Commission Recommends Beginning Accession Negotiations for Ukraine, Moldova

Moldova: Ruling Pro-EU Party Secures Most Votes in Local Elections, Suffers Defeats in Major Cities

EU: Bloc Reports on Eurasian Countries' Progress Toward EU Membership

Moldova: Constitutional Court Dissolves Pro-Russian Shor Party

Moldova: Prime Minister's Resignation Triggers Cabinet Overhaul, Reignites Instability Fears

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Lifts Immediate Threat to Natural Gas Deliveries Through Ukraine

Russia, Moldova: Gazprom Threatens to Reduce Gas Flows to Europe Through Ukraine

Moldova: U.S. Tries to Keep Moldova Outside Russia's Orbit by Expanding Sanctions

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