United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The United Kingdom's defense ministry launched Project Nightfall to procure a ground-launched ballistic missile system capable of striking targets over 500 kilometers (310 miles) away, specifically for the Ukrainian battlefield, Kyiv Independent reported Jan 12. 

U.K., Ukraine: London Initiates Independent Deep Strike Missile Pipeline for Kyiv 

Kazakhstan

Economics

Energy

Unidentified drones attacked oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, terminal in the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Jan. 13, a development later confirmed by Kazakhstan's energy ministry.

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had approved and was conducting new covert and deep strike operations against Russia, Politico reported on Jan. 11. 

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

South Africa

United States

Iran

China

Politics

South Africa is scheduled to host the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval military exercises off the coast of Simons Town's naval base in the company of Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels on Jan. 9-16, The Independent Online reported on Jan. 9.

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

Poland

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at targets in Ukraine's Lviv region during a broader missile and drone attack on energy and civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported on Jan. 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Venezuela

U.S. security forces launched an operation to seize an oil tanker, the Russia-flagged Marinera, formerly known as the Bella 1, in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Iceland, despite Russia's deployment of naval vessels to escort the ship and a request that the United States stop pursuing the tanker, BBC reported on Jan. 7. 

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

Assessments

Nigeria

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Greenland

Israel

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Norway

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Environment, Science & Technology

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Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

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Palestinian Territories

Qatar

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Yemen

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Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.K., Ukraine: London Initiates Independent Deep Strike Missile Pipeline for Kyiv

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

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