Europe

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government said it supported including the Nord Stream pipeline ban in the European Union's next sanctions package against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the Financial Times reported May 23, citing officials familiar with the matter.

Europe, Russia: Germany Backs EU Sanctions on Nord Stream Pipelines 

China

Afghanistan

Economics

The Afghan Taliban's acting commerce minister said the group is talking to Russia and China about the possibility of using local currencies to settle hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trade transactions, Reuters reported May 23.

Afghanistan: Taliban Talking to Russia, China on Using Local Currencies to Settle Trade Transactions

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a televised meeting of government officials that the government has "approved the creation of a necessary security buffer zone along our borders" and that soldiers "are actively working to accomplish this task," Russian state-run outlet TASS reported May 22.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Says Work Underway for 'Security Buffer Zone' Along Border

Syria

Military & Security

An attack on Russia's Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Syria, killed at least four people, including two militants and two people at the base, AP reported May 22.

Russia, Syria: Militants Conduct Deadly Attack on Russia's Hmeimim Air Base

On May 21, Russian government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that work on a memorandum for a potential peace agreement with Ukraine was making progress, but that the Kremlin will keep the content secret for now, The Moscow Times has reported.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow 'Making Progress' on Its Peace Offer, but Insists on Maximalist Demands

Belgium

Politics

The European Union on May 20 adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia, targeting nearly 200 vessels linked to Moscow's so-called shadow fleet used to bypass Western oil sanctions, Reuters reported the same day.

EU, Russia: EU Adopts 17th Russia Sanctions Package, Eyes Tougher Energy Measures 

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on May 19.

U.S., Russia: Putin Promises To Work With Ukraine on Peace During Call With Trump

Mozambique

Sources within Russia's Embassy in Mozambique confirmed that the Russian research vessel Atlantida K-1704 had been fired upon around three miles (about 5 kilometers) off the coast of Tambuzi island on May 10, located in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province, Club of Mozambique reported on May 19. 

Mozambique: Attack of Russian Research Vessel Likely Linked to Islamic State Mozambique Province

Columns

On Geopolitics

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Assessments

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.

While direct talks mark a notable development in the peace process, Moscow will not make meaningful concessions unless it faces bolder action from the West (particularly the U.S.), like asset seizures and increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Snapshots

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

United Kingdom

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Iran

Armenia

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

Media

Canada

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Australia

Philippines

Forecast Webcast

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Turkey

South Korea

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

Brazil

Lebanon

Japan

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Podcasts

How will these changes affect European countries?


Essential Geopolitics: The United States' Evolving Relationship With Russia

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Europe, Russia: Germany Backs EU Sanctions on Nord Stream Pipelines

Afghanistan: Taliban Talking to Russia, China on Using Local Currencies to Settle Trade Transactions

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Says Work Underway for 'Security Buffer Zone' Along Border

Russia, Syria: Militants Conduct Deadly Attack on Russia's Hmeimim Air Base

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow 'Making Progress' on Its Peace Offer, but Insists on Maximalist Demands

EU, Russia: EU Adopts 17th Russia Sanctions Package, Eyes Tougher Energy Measures

U.S., Russia: Putin Promises To Work With Ukraine on Peace During Call With Trump

Mozambique: Attack of Russian Research Vessel Likely Linked to Islamic State Mozambique Province

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