China

Kazakhstan

Russia

Economics

Energy

Politics

A preliminary hearing began in Astana on a lawsuit filed by China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Co., or CNODC, seeking to overturn Kazakhstan's April 2025 order that redistributed tariff revenue on Russian crude transiting to China via Kazakhstan, Kursiv reported on March 17.

Kazakhstan: Tariff Clash Over Russian Oil Puts Spotlight on Key China-Bound Oil Artery

Ukraine

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said no region in Russia is safe from Ukrainian drone strikes, Interfax reported on March 17. 

Russia, Ukraine: Shoigu Warns No Russian Region Is Safe From Ukrainian Drone Strikes 

Cyber

Russian authorities have imposed rolling mobile internet blackouts in Moscow since March 5, while allowing access only to a limited set of approved services through a whitelist system, the Financial Times reported on March 14.

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

Europe

Belgium

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said the European Union should normalize relations with Russia to restore access to cheaper energy, according to a March 14 interview with L'Echo.

Belgium, Russia: Belgian Prime Minister Calls for EU Normalization With Moscow, Renewed Energy Trade

United States

Iran

The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 30-day license authorizing the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels on or before March 12 and currently at sea, Reuters reported on March 13.

Russia: U.S. Waiver Will Ease Near-Term Oil Tightness but Complicate Russia Sanctions Strategy

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the 2022 Istanbul agreements on Ukraine "no longer correspond to the current situation" and that "the reality has changed," Russian state news agency TASS reported on March 11. 

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Kremlin Hardens Negotiating Line as Patriot Stocks Face Strain

North Korea

The China State Railway Group announced on March 9 that it would resume direct passenger rail service between Beijing and Pyongyang and international passenger rail service between China's border city of Dandong and Pyongyang, effective March 12.

China, North Korea: Cross-Border Passenger Rail Service Resumes

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a "very good call" with Russian President Vladimir Putin about Ukraine and the Iran conflict and is considering easing certain oil sanctions on Russia to help cool surging energy prices, Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Russia, Iran: Trump Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions After Call With Putin

Assessments

South Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026. 

Kim Jong Un's latest directives suggest a willingness to pursue high-level negotiations with the United States and China in pursuit of critical economic concessions.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a truck equipped with a machine gun during an air raid alert in Kyiv on Jan. 24, 2026, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts despite mounting economic strain, combined with the U.S.'s new focus on Iran, makes meaningful progress in peace talks unlikely anytime soon.

Ukraine War Enters Its Fifth Year, With No Near End in Sight

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.

Yerevan and Baku's efforts to finalize a peace treaty and realign toward the West will be tested by Russian influence operations ahead of Armenian elections and Iran's competing geopolitical interests.

To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

Vietnam

Slovakia

Hungary

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

U.S.-China Relations

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Greenland

Denmark

France

Switzerland

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Taiwan

Norway

Pakistan

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Social Issues

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: Tariff Clash Over Russian Oil Puts Spotlight on Key China-Bound Oil Artery

Russia, Ukraine: Shoigu Warns No Russian Region Is Safe From Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

Belgium, Russia: Belgian Prime Minister Calls for EU Normalization With Moscow, Renewed Energy Trade

Russia: U.S. Waiver Will Ease Near-Term Oil Tightness but Complicate Russia Sanctions Strategy

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Kremlin Hardens Negotiating Line as Patriot Stocks Face Strain

China, North Korea: Cross-Border Passenger Rail Service Resumes

U.S., Russia, Iran: Trump Weighs Easing Russian Oil Sanctions After Call With Putin

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