Ukraine

Russia

Economics

Military & Security

Ukrainian and Western media attributed a Dec. 1 explosion on the bypass track of Russia's Chortov Bridge and a Nov. 29 explosion on the Severomuysky tunnel of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, or BAM, to Ukraine’s security service, Meduza reported on Dec. 1.

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Takes Credit for Dual Sabotage of BAM

Politics

Social Issues

Russia's Supreme Court approved a request by the country's Justice Ministry to recognize the nonexistent "international LGBT movement" as an extremist organization, The New York Times reported on Nov. 30.

Russia: Moscow Recognizes 'International LGBT Movement' as Extremist Organization    

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Estonia

Poland

Belarus

Finland will close its last remaining open border crossing with Russia for at least two weeks following an uptick in illegal migration attempts that Finnish officials say Russia is facilitating in order to destabilize the country after joining NATO earlier this year, AP reported Nov. 29. 

Finland, Russia: Finland Closes Entire Border With Russia Over Migrant Concerns

Europe

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union presented member states with a framework to provide Ukraine with "lasting security commitments" that EU leaders will discuss in December, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 22.

Ukraine, EU: Bloc Prepares Framework for 'Lasting Security Commitments'

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Eritrea

Mali

Somalia

Zimbabwe

Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Moscow had started shipments of free grain totalling up to 200,000 tons and destined for six African countries, Reuters reported on Nov. 17.

Sub-Saharan Africa: First Shipment of Russian Grain En Route to Burkina Faso and Somalia

Ukraine's troops secured multiple bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, one of Russia's most significant natural strategic barriers, AP reported on Nov. 17.

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Claims Multiple Bridgeheads Across the Dnieper

Finland has decided to close four border crossings with Russia until at least Feb. 18, 2024, leaving only three in operation, Reuters reported Nov. 16.

Finland, Russia: Finland to Close Four Russian Border Crossings Amid Surge of Asylum Seekers

United States

Energy

EU officials are holding discussions on reinforcing the West's $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports, including by potentially increasing the enforcement mechanisms, over concerns that "almost none" of Russia's oil exports are being traded below the cap, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 13.

Russia: Russia Is Still Selling Most of Its Oil Above the West's Price Cap

Assessments

United Arab Emirates

China

COP28 President-Designate and the UAE's Special Envoy for Climate Change, Sultan al-Jaber (front row, fourth from left) -- poses for a group photo along with U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and other participants in the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on May 3, 2023, in Berlin, Germany.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

This year's U.N. conference will highlight disparities between the developed and developing world on climate ambitions, as well as individual countries' differing priorities.

What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit

Kenya

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

OPEC headquarters on June 3, 2023, in Vienna. OPEC+ will meet Nov. 26 to decide whether to deepen production cuts.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Climate Negotiations at COP28, OPEC+ Meets Following an Oil Sell-off

Serbia

Kosovo

NATO peacekeepers stand guard as hospital employees lead a protest march of ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo on June 19, 2023. 

Russian information campaigns are fomenting EU accession fatigue and anti-Western narratives in Serbia and raising risks of violence in northern Kosovo.

The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo

Snapshots

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (right) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Nov. 9, 2023.

Despite inking new deals with Moscow, Astana will continue to deepen its ties with China, the West and Turkey, which over time will increase tensions with Russia.

Kazakhstan's Diversification Push Won't Spur Russian Retaliation -- For Now

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right) hold a joint press conference on Nov. 4, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Western policymakers' concerns about whether to keep funding the nearly two-year war in Ukraine will likely grow ahead of upcoming U.S. and EU elections, which for Kyiv, may translate to fewer resources and greater pressure to ink a peace deal with Moscow.

Ukraine Grapples With the Prospect Waning Western Support

Germany

Denmark

Greece

France

Sweden

Belgium

Spain

Italy

Hungary

Israeli and EU Flags

A lack of a unified EU response to the Israel-Hamas War highlights divisions among member states' foreign policies, complicating the bloc's plans to play a meaningful role in the conflict, as well as efforts to maintain unified support for Ukraine.

Israel-Hamas War Highlights Divisions Among EU Member States

Iran

Turkey

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cote d'Ivoire

Gabon

Niger

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov attends a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations on May 19, 2023, in Pyatigorsk, Stavropol Krai region, Russia. Reports of the deteriorating health of Kadyrov carry acute and chronic risks for the region's stability.

The prospect of the long-time leader of Chechnya no longer being the region’s formal head carries acute and chronic risks for the region's stability, though not along the lines of the 1990s.

Rumors of Kadyrov's Ill Health Raise Questions About Chechnya's Future

Asia-Pacific

A 3D rendering of the European Union's flag and a gas valve on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.

Despite high storage and lower demand, European natural gas prices will remain vulnerable to market shocks as the winter heating season begins.

Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Takes Credit for Dual Sabotage of BAM

Russia: Moscow Recognizes 'International LGBT Movement' as Extremist Organization

Finland, Russia: Finland Closes Entire Border With Russia Over Migrant Concerns

Ukraine, EU: Bloc Prepares Framework for 'Lasting Security Commitments'

Sub-Saharan Africa: First Shipment of Russian Grain En Route to Burkina Faso and Somalia

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Claims Multiple Bridgeheads Across the Dnieper

Finland, Russia: Finland to Close Four Russian Border Crossings Amid Surge of Asylum Seekers

Russia: Russia Is Still Selling Most of Its Oil Above the West's Price Cap

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