Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Politics

Officials associated with Afghanistan's Taliban-led administration assumed control of an Afghan consulate in Khorog, Tajikistan, Eurasianet reported on March 27.

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

Fighting along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border that initially commenced on Sept. 14 has resumed and spread to additional border points, leaving several people dead, dozens wounded and thousands forced to evacuate the affected areas, Eurasianet reported Sept. 16.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Uzbekistan

Energy

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy agreed to settle Afghan electricity utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat's outstanding debt for electric power supplies, Eurasianet reported Aug. 3.

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Security

Social Issues

Crossing Borders

South Asian Militancy

The Taliban has closed at least some border crossings along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border since May 10 and has been seizing Tajik trucks and, in some cases, their drivers, RFE/RL Gandhara reported May 19.

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Instability in Central Asia

The Islamic State's Afghanistan branch has in recent weeks ramped up the production, translation and dissemination of propaganda directed at Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz speakers in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, publishing several books and audio messages in Central Asian languages, Eurasianet reported March 18.

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Kazakhstan

Environmental Issues

Kyrgyzstan warned its Central Asian neighbors that it will begin releasing less water through the Toktogul reservoir on the Naryn River, Eurasianet reported Nov. 8.

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Russia

COVID-19

Economics

Russia's Internal Struggle

According to official statistics published by Russia’s ministry of internal affairs, 1.6 million Tajik citizens have entered Russia to work in 2021, which is equivalent to about one-quarter of Tajikistan’s workforce, Eurasnet reported Nov. 3.

Tajikistan, Russia: Tajik Labor Migration Statistics Shatter Previous Record

China

Tajikistan has approved the construction of a new Chinese-funded base in Vakhon, a remote village located near the country’s border with Afghanistan, RFE/FL reported Oct. 28.

Tajikistan: China to Fund New Base Near Afghan Border, Receive Full Control of Existing Base

Snapshots

United States

Turkmenistan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Columns

On Geopolitics

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Media

Turkey

Cambodia

Podcasts

Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

Assessments

Pakistan

Taliban fighters in armored vehicles in a military parade on April 19, 2022, in Herat, Afghanistan. Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

The Jihadist Wars

Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Worsening Security in Afghanistan Threatens the Taliban at Home and Abroad

Guidance

Colombia

Ecuador

Germany

A currency exchange office on Oct. 14, 2021 in Istanbul.

Cyber

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: More Interest Rate Cuts in Turkey, the Moscow Format Meets

The War in Afghanistan

Ethiopia

Saudi Arabia

OPEC headquarters in Vienna on May 24, 2017. The Oct. 4 OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be closely watched after the European benchmark Brent hit $80 per barrel for the first time in three years Sept. 28. 

The Weekly Rundown: OPEC+ Meets, Tensions Rise Along the Tajik-Afghan Border

Mexico

Iran

Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference June 21, 2021, in Tehran, Iran. Aside from foreign policy, Raisi's main short-term priorities will be improving the Iranian economy.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Inauguration Day in Iran, Military Drills in Central Asia

A view of southwestern Tajikistan from the Afghan border town of Qazi Deh. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Ongoing unrest in southwestern Tajikistan highlights the challenges the government faces in ensuring the nearby withdrawal of U.S. troops doesn't spur violence within its own borders.

The Race to Secure Tajikistan's Afghan Border

More attacks could see Russian, Chinese, and U.S. security involvement -- and competition -- in the Central Asian country increase.

Militancy in Tajikistan Could Draw in Outside Powers

Lake Sarez sits at an elevation of 3,300 meters (10,827 feet) in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.

Tajikistan appears set for a military operation in its restive eastern region -– and that could soon attract the attentions of Russia and China.

A Military Crackdown in Tajikistan Could Draw in Bigger Powers

Tajikistan and Russia deny conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan that would mark an atypical escalation in the region.

 Afghanistan: Border Clashes Raise Concerns of Spreading Instability

On Security

A man signs a condolence book at the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, for the four bicyclists killed in a terrorist attack on July 29, 2018.

With Russian support, the government has been able to keep a lid on simmering militancy, but poverty and a growing youth population could increase the threat from radicalization.

Why an Attack by Grassroots Jihadists in Tajikistan Matters

Tajikistan lies in the southeast corner of Central Asia, bordering Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, China to the east and Afghanistan to the south. Tajikistan is landlocked and largely mountainous, and the country does not have sizeable oil or natural gas resources like some of its Central Asian neighbors. These factors have created significant barriers to economic development in the country and made it the poorest of all the former Soviet states.    Tajikistan's core is centered around the capital of Dushanbe, though the country's clan-based politics and mountainous terrain have fostered substantial regional differences and divisions in areas like Sughd to the north, Khatlon to the south and Gorno-Badakhshan to the east. These divisions were on display when Tajikistan experienced a civil war in the early post-Soviet period from 1992-1997, which killed or displaced much of the country's population. Tajikistan has also had periodic water and border disputes with its neighbors, especially Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, with which it shares the Fergana Valley.     Despite Tajikistan's internal divisions and lack of energy resources, the country is of substantial interest to outside powers like Russia, China, and the United States. Tajikistan shares a long and porous border with Afghanistan, which has made the country vulnerable to militancy and narcotics flows. Russia is the strongest external power in Tajikistan, hosting a military base there, but China has become increasingly active in the economic and security sphere, while the United States pursues counterterrorism and counternarcotics initiatives in the country. Balancing these external powers while managing its internal divisions is Tajikistan's primary geographic challenge. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Tajikistan, Russia: Tajik Labor Migration Statistics Shatter Previous Record

Tajikistan: China to Fund New Base Near Afghan Border, Receive Full Control of Existing Base

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