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Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

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Pakistan

Taliban fighters in armored vehicles in a military parade on April 19, 2022, in Herat, Afghanistan. Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

The Jihadist Wars

Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Worsening Security in Afghanistan Threatens the Taliban at Home and Abroad

The Fight Against the Islamic State

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A currency exchange office on Oct. 14, 2021 in Istanbul.

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The War in Afghanistan

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: More Interest Rate Cuts in Turkey, the Moscow Format Meets

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OPEC headquarters in Vienna on May 24, 2017. The Oct. 4 OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be closely watched after the European benchmark Brent hit $80 per barrel for the first time in three years Sept. 28. 

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The Weekly Rundown: OPEC+ Meets, Tensions Rise Along the Tajik-Afghan Border

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Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference June 21, 2021, in Tehran, Iran. Aside from foreign policy, Raisi's main short-term priorities will be improving the Iranian economy.

Instability in Central Asia

The Weekly Rundown: Inauguration Day in Iran, Military Drills in Central Asia

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A view of southwestern Tajikistan from the Afghan border town of Qazi Deh. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

South Asian Militancy

Ongoing unrest in southwestern Tajikistan highlights the challenges the government faces in ensuring the nearby withdrawal of U.S. troops doesn't spur violence within its own borders.

The Race to Secure Tajikistan's Afghan Border

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Eurasia

<p>Eurasia is the world&rsquo;s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia&rsquo;s farthest reaches &mdash; a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia&rsquo;s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

More attacks could see Russian, Chinese, and U.S. security involvement -- and competition -- in the Central Asian country increase.

Militancy in Tajikistan Could Draw in Outside Powers

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

Officials associated with Afghanistan's Taliban-led administration assumed control of an Afghan consulate in Khorog, Tajikistan, Eurasianet reported on March 27.

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Fighting along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border that initially commenced on Sept. 14 has resumed and spread to additional border points, leaving several people dead, dozens wounded and thousands forced to evacuate the affected areas, Eurasianet reported Sept. 16.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy agreed to settle Afghan electricity utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat's outstanding debt for electric power supplies, Eurasianet reported Aug. 3.

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Social Issues

Crossing Borders

The Taliban has closed at least some border crossings along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border since May 10 and has been seizing Tajik trucks and, in some cases, their drivers, RFE/RL Gandhara reported May 19.

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

The Islamic State's Afghanistan branch has in recent weeks ramped up the production, translation and dissemination of propaganda directed at Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz speakers in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, publishing several books and audio messages in Central Asian languages, Eurasianet reported March 18.

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Kyrgyzstan warned its Central Asian neighbors that it will begin releasing less water through the Toktogul reservoir on the Naryn River, Eurasianet reported Nov. 8.

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Environmental Issues

Russia's Internal Struggle

According to official statistics published by Russia’s ministry of internal affairs, 1.6 million Tajik citizens have entered Russia to work in 2021, which is equivalent to about one-quarter of Tajikistan’s workforce, Eurasnet reported Nov. 3.

Tajikistan, Russia: Tajik Labor Migration Statistics Shatter Previous Record

Tajikistan has approved the construction of a new Chinese-funded base in Vakhon, a remote village located near the country’s border with Afghanistan, RFE/FL reported Oct. 28.

Tajikistan: China to Fund New Base Near Afghan Border, Receive Full Control of Existing Base

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Tajikistan lies in the southeast corner of Central Asia, bordering Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, China to the east and Afghanistan to the south. Tajikistan is landlocked and largely mountainous, and the country does not have sizeable oil or natural gas resources like some of its Central Asian neighbors. These factors have created significant barriers to economic development in the country and made it the poorest of all the former Soviet states.    Tajikistan's core is centered around the capital of Dushanbe, though the country's clan-based politics and mountainous terrain have fostered substantial regional differences and divisions in areas like Sughd to the north, Khatlon to the south and Gorno-Badakhshan to the east. These divisions were on display when Tajikistan experienced a civil war in the early post-Soviet period from 1992-1997, which killed or displaced much of the country's population. Tajikistan has also had periodic water and border disputes with its neighbors, especially Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, with which it shares the Fergana Valley.     Despite Tajikistan's internal divisions and lack of energy resources, the country is of substantial interest to outside powers like Russia, China, and the United States. Tajikistan shares a long and porous border with Afghanistan, which has made the country vulnerable to militancy and narcotics flows. Russia is the strongest external power in Tajikistan, hosting a military base there, but China has become increasingly active in the economic and security sphere, while the United States pursues counterterrorism and counternarcotics initiatives in the country. Balancing these external powers while managing its internal divisions is Tajikistan's primary geographic challenge. 

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A member of the Taliban security personnel on March 21, 2023, in Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan.

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Kyrgyzstan: Neighbors May Receive Less Water Through Toktogul Reservoir in 2022

Tajikistan, Russia: Tajik Labor Migration Statistics Shatter Previous Record

Tajikistan: China to Fund New Base Near Afghan Border, Receive Full Control of Existing Base

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