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Politics

Speaking at a meeting of the Russian government, Russian President Vladimir Putin said for the first time that "radical Islamists" were behind the March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow, but he otherwise reaffirmed his previous claim that Kyiv may have somehow been involved and suggested that Washington was trying to cover it up, The Moscow Times reported on March 25.

Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan: Kremlin Declines To Acknowledge ISKP Responsibility for Moscow Attack

Iran

Turkey

China

Europe

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

At the Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis announced that European and international financial institutions will commit 10 billion euros ($10.84 billion) toward sustainable transport connectivity in Central Asia, Interfax reported on Jan. 29.

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The heads of the security services of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan said negotiators made a breakthrough regarding the operation of roads connecting the countries to their respective enclaves and isolated territories, Eurasianet reported on Dec. 4.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

Officials associated with Afghanistan's Taliban-led administration assumed control of an Afghan consulate in Khorog, Tajikistan, Eurasianet reported on March 27.

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Fighting along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border that initially commenced on Sept. 14 has resumed and spread to additional border points, leaving several people dead, dozens wounded and thousands forced to evacuate the affected areas, Eurasianet reported Sept. 16.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Energy

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy agreed to settle Afghan electricity utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat's outstanding debt for electric power supplies, Eurasianet reported Aug. 3.

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Security

Social Issues

Crossing Borders

South Asian Militancy

The Taliban has closed at least some border crossings along the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border since May 10 and has been seizing Tajik trucks and, in some cases, their drivers, RFE/RL Gandhara reported May 19.

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Instability in Central Asia

The Islamic State's Afghanistan branch has in recent weeks ramped up the production, translation and dissemination of propaganda directed at Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz speakers in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, publishing several books and audio messages in Central Asian languages, Eurasianet reported March 18.

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Assessments

A Kyrgyz serviceman at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border Sept. 20, 2022, in Min-Bulak, Kyrgyzstan. A border demarcation deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would reduce the risk of a larger conflict between the countries in the years to come, ultimately boosting regional economic prospects and transit connectivity, as well as the credibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Such a deal would reduce the risk of a conflict between the two, boosting regional economic prospects along with the credibility of the Russia-led CSTO.

How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia

Snapshots

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Columns

On Geopolitics

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Media

Cambodia

Podcasts

Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

Pakistan

Taliban fighters in armored vehicles in a military parade on April 19, 2022, in Herat, Afghanistan. Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

The Jihadist Wars

Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Worsening Security in Afghanistan Threatens the Taliban at Home and Abroad

Guidance

Colombia

Ecuador

Germany

A currency exchange office on Oct. 14, 2021 in Istanbul.

Cyber

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: More Interest Rate Cuts in Turkey, the Moscow Format Meets

The War in Afghanistan

Ethiopia

Saudi Arabia

OPEC headquarters in Vienna on May 24, 2017. The Oct. 4 OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be closely watched after the European benchmark Brent hit $80 per barrel for the first time in three years Sept. 28. 

The Weekly Rundown: OPEC+ Meets, Tensions Rise Along the Tajik-Afghan Border

Mexico

Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference June 21, 2021, in Tehran, Iran. Aside from foreign policy, Raisi's main short-term priorities will be improving the Iranian economy.

COVID-19

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Inauguration Day in Iran, Military Drills in Central Asia

A view of southwestern Tajikistan from the Afghan border town of Qazi Deh. 

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Ongoing unrest in southwestern Tajikistan highlights the challenges the government faces in ensuring the nearby withdrawal of U.S. troops doesn't spur violence within its own borders.

The Race to Secure Tajikistan's Afghan Border

More attacks could see Russian, Chinese, and U.S. security involvement -- and competition -- in the Central Asian country increase.

Militancy in Tajikistan Could Draw in Outside Powers

Lake Sarez sits at an elevation of 3,300 meters (10,827 feet) in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.

Tajikistan appears set for a military operation in its restive eastern region -– and that could soon attract the attentions of Russia and China.

A Military Crackdown in Tajikistan Could Draw in Bigger Powers

Tajikistan and Russia deny conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan that would mark an atypical escalation in the region.

 Afghanistan: Border Clashes Raise Concerns of Spreading Instability

Tajikistan lies in the southeast corner of Central Asia, bordering Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, China to the east and Afghanistan to the south. Tajikistan is landlocked and largely mountainous, and the country does not have sizeable oil or natural gas resources like some of its Central Asian neighbors. These factors have created significant barriers to economic development in the country and made it the poorest of all the former Soviet states.    Tajikistan's core is centered around the capital of Dushanbe, though the country's clan-based politics and mountainous terrain have fostered substantial regional differences and divisions in areas like Sughd to the north, Khatlon to the south and Gorno-Badakhshan to the east. These divisions were on display when Tajikistan experienced a civil war in the early post-Soviet period from 1992-1997, which killed or displaced much of the country's population. Tajikistan has also had periodic water and border disputes with its neighbors, especially Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, with which it shares the Fergana Valley.     Despite Tajikistan's internal divisions and lack of energy resources, the country is of substantial interest to outside powers like Russia, China, and the United States. Tajikistan shares a long and porous border with Afghanistan, which has made the country vulnerable to militancy and narcotics flows. Russia is the strongest external power in Tajikistan, hosting a military base there, but China has become increasingly active in the economic and security sphere, while the United States pursues counterterrorism and counternarcotics initiatives in the country. Balancing these external powers while managing its internal divisions is Tajikistan's primary geographic challenge. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan: Kremlin Declines To Acknowledge ISKP Responsibility for Moscow Attack

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

Afghanistan: Taliban Takes Control of Minor Consulate in Tajikistan

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Border Clashes Resume and Spread

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Afghanistan, Tajikistan: Tensions Escalate Amid Taliban's Truck Seizures, Border Closures

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

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