Ukraine

Military & Security

Politics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Maj. Gen. Ievhen Khmara, acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine, as interim defense minister after Mykhailo Fedorov's removal triggered rare wartime protests and the resignation of deputy air force commander Col. Pavlo Yelizarov, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 16. 

Ukraine: Popular Defense Minister's Ouster Sparks Protests, Exposes Civilian-Military Rift

China

Europe

Russia

Economics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine and the European Union signed a deal to establish joint drone projects and expand production by combining Ukrainian battlefield expertise with European financing and industrial capacity, Reuters reported on July 15.

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

Dozens of heads of state and government met in Paris, France, on July 13 for a "coalition of the willing" summit in support of Ukraine, where participants announced an anti-ballistic missile coalition, Reuters reported the same day.

Ukraine, Europe: Paris Summit Deepens Kyiv's Long-Term Defense Ties With Europe

Energy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he would replace Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and overhaul his Cabinet as part of an updated political strategy, with Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi emerging as the frontrunner to succeed her, the Financial Times reported on July 12.

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

United States

France

Leaders of the "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine are meeting in Paris, France, on July 13, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attending, to discuss air and missile defense, missile production, joint exercises and Russia's shadow fleet, Le Monde reported the same day. 

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the United States was mistaken to believe that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could pressure Moscow to resume peace talks, warning that escalation could prolong the war and force Russia to create a larger "security zone," Reuters reported on July 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Says Ukrainian Strikes Could Prolong War, Not End It

U.S. President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that Washington would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptors and "show them how to do it" as Kyiv seeks more air defense missiles to counter Russian missile and drone attacks, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Russia launched another deadly attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, killing at least 15 people and injuring 56 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Assessments

Albania

Montenegro

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Snapshots

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Iran

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ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine: Popular Defense Minister's Ouster Sparks Protests, Exposes Civilian-Military Rift

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

Ukraine, Europe: Paris Summit Deepens Kyiv's Long-Term Defense Ties With Europe

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Says Ukrainian Strikes Could Prolong War, Not End It

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

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