United States

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Russia

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was looking to trade continued U.S. military support to Ukraine for "rare earths and other things," the Financial Times reported on Feb. 4.

Ukraine, U.S., Russia: Trump Wants Ukrainian Minerals in Return for U.S. Military Support

Europe

Moldova

Economics

Energy

Moldova will send 3 million cubic meters of natural gas to its separatist enclave Transdniestria starting Feb. 1, the first fuel supply to the area since Russian gas transit through Ukraine halted on Jan. 1, Reuters reported on Jan. 31.

Moldova: Transdniestria To Receive First Gas Shipment Following EU Grant

European officials are discussing the potential resumption of Russian pipeline gas exports to the European Union as part of a broader settlement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 30, citing sources close to the discussions. 

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Russian forces captured the town of Velyka Novosilka in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region, AP reported on Jan. 27.

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Capture Velyka Novosilka

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's advisers are developing two sanctions strategies to facilitate an agreement resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16. 

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia 

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where the two leaders signed a "100 Year Partnership" agreement on military, technology and energy cooperation, Reuters reported on Jan. 16. 

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

After returning from a trip to Moscow, the president of Moldova's separatist-controlled breakaway region of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, told reporters he had negotiated a resumption of gas supplies with Russian energy officials, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched more than 200 drones and other munitions against military facilities and infrastructure deep inside Russia, making it the largest Ukrainian air attack in terms of the number of drones since the beginning of the war, Agentstvo reported Jan. 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Assessments

Ecuador

Jordan

India

Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to the press in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Meets With India and Jordan's Leaders, Ecuador Holds Elections

Media

Podcasts

Is the Russia-Ukraine war Putin's Vietnam?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of U.S.-Russia Talks on War With Ukraine Part II

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Is the Russia-Ukraine War Putin's Vietnam?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of U.S.-Russia Talks on War With Ukraine, Part I

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky looks on during a joint press conference with Poland's prime minister in Lviv on Dec. 17, 2024.

Despite growing pressure from the U.S. and Russia, Zelensky will resist proposals for Ukrainian elections and/or a ceasefire if he believes the terms would be political suicide for him and an affront to his country's interests.

How Will Peace Talks and Potential Elections Impact Ukraine's Political Stability? 

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a state awards ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 16, 2024.

The negotiations are unlikely to quickly yield a ceasefire, as Trump pressures the Kremlin for a deal with sanctions pressure and the prospect of continued support to Ukraine.

How Will U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Play Out in the Months Ahead?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Angola

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Kuwait

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Bolivia

Poland

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Namibia

Uruguay

Kazakhstan

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S., Russia: Trump Wants Ukrainian Minerals in Return for U.S. Military Support

Moldova: Transdniestria To Receive First Gas Shipment Following EU Grant

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Capture Velyka Novosilka

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

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