United States

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. officials began a second round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, just a day after Russia carried out its largest missile and drone strike of the winter against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Reuters reported Feb. 4.

Ukraine, Russia: Second Round of Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Begins Under Fire

Energy

Russia launched a large overnight barrage of missiles and drones against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and cities during extreme cold, damaging power and heating systems across several regions just ahead of resumed U.S.-brokered talks, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on Feb. 3.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Ahead of U.S.-Brokered Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to attend the next round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4-5, Axios reported Feb. 2.

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks to Resume as Russian Strikes Kill Civilians, Hit Infrastructure

Politics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a U.S.-proposed pause in Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure had begun overnight and that Ukraine was reciprocating by refraining from attacking Russian energy targets, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 30.

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Narrow Energy Pause Takes Effect as Talks Face Uncertainty

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine, Russia and the United States are preparing additional trilateral meetings for Feb. 1, following their first round of talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 26. 

Ukraine, Russia, U.S: Trilateral Talks Set To Continue as Territorial Red Lines Hold

United Arab Emirates

Russian President Vladimir Putin met on Jan. 22 with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Trilateral Track Opens as Moscow Holds Firm on Territory

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Davos, Switzerland, that security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement have been finalized, but that the war's core territorial issues remain unresolved, Reuters reported on Jan. 22. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Negotiators Agree to Security Guarantees, but Territorial Issue Remains Unresolved

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would skip the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to focus on the domestic energy crisis unless negotiators finalize pending agreements regarding security guarantees, a prosperity plan and additional air defense supplies, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 20.

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Says He Will Skip Davos Forum as Peace Talks Stall

Assessments

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Greenland

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Vietnam

Denmark

France

Switzerland

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Nigeria

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Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Iran

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Taiwan

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India

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U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

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Egypt

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Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Second Round of Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Begins Under Fire

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Ahead of U.S.-Brokered Talks

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks to Resume as Russian Strikes Kill Civilians, Hit Infrastructure

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Narrow Energy Pause Takes Effect as Talks Face Uncertainty

Ukraine, Russia, U.S: Trilateral Talks Set To Continue as Territorial Red Lines Hold

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Trilateral Track Opens as Moscow Holds Firm on Territory

Ukraine, U.S.: Negotiators Agree to Security Guarantees, but Territorial Issue Remains Unresolved

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Says He Will Skip Davos Forum as Peace Talks Stall

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