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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump stated in a Reuters interview on Jan. 14 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, not Russian President Vladimir Putin, was the primary impediment to finalizing a peace agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump's Rhetoric Signals Renewed Pressure on Kyiv

Europe

Economics

The European Commission on Jan. 14 adopted legislative proposals to secure financial support for Ukraine in 2026-27, including a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) loan allocating 60 billion euros for military assistance and 30 billion euros for budget support, the commission said the same day. 

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's defense ministry launched Project Nightfall to procure a ground-launched ballistic missile system capable of striking targets over 500 kilometers (310 miles) away, specifically for the Ukrainian battlefield, Kyiv Independent reported Jan 12. 

U.K., Ukraine: London Initiates Independent Deep Strike Missile Pipeline for Kyiv 

Kazakhstan

Energy

Unidentified drones attacked oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, terminal in the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Jan. 13, a development later confirmed by Kazakhstan's energy ministry.

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had approved and was conducting new covert and deep strike operations against Russia, Politico reported on Jan. 11. 

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

Poland

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at targets in Ukraine's Lviv region during a broader missile and drone attack on energy and civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported on Jan. 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

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Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

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South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump's Rhetoric Signals Renewed Pressure on Kyiv

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

U.K., Ukraine: London Initiates Independent Deep Strike Missile Pipeline for Kyiv

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

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