Austria

Ukraine

Politics

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), with forming a new government following the collapse of coalition talks between centrist parties last week, Politico reported Jan. 6. 

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

Slovakia

Economics

Energy

Slovakia's government is weighing possible retaliatory measures against Ukraine after Kyiv's refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia's Gazprom to transport Russian natural gas to Slovakia through its territory, Reuters reported Jan. 2.

Slovakia, Ukraine: Slovak PM Fico Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Ukraine Over Russian Gas Transit Halt

Europe

Russia

European natural gas prices surged to their highest levels since October 2023, following the halt of Russian gas flows through Ukraine after the expiration of their transit agreement on Jan. 1, compounded by a drop in temperatures across much of the Continent, Bloomberg reported Jan. 2. 

EU, Ukraine, Russia: European Gas Prices Soar as Russian Flows Via Ukraine Come to an End

Poland

European natural gas prices are fluctuating near monthly highs in anticipation for the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement's expiration on Dec. 31 and colder weather in the coming days and weeks, Bloomberg reported Dec. 30.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian air defense system was responsible for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Dec. 25 near the Kazakh city of Aktau, which killed 38 people, Euronews reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified Azerbaijani government sources familiar with a preliminary investigation.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready for negotiations and unspecified "compromises" regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the BBC reported on Dec. 19. 

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

The head of the Russian military's nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, was killed in an apparent assassination when an improvised explosive device attached to an electric scooter exploded outside his apartment, AP reported on Dec. 17.

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Russia conducted a mass airstrike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure using 93 missiles and over 200 drones, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 13.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Turkey

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Bolivia

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Namibia

Tanzania

Uruguay

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

Columns

On Geopolitics

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

France

United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Mexico

China

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

Slovakia, Ukraine: Slovak PM Fico Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Ukraine Over Russian Gas Transit Halt

EU, Ukraine, Russia: European Gas Prices Soar as Russian Flows Via Ukraine Come to an End

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support