Turkey

Cyprus

Politics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the Turkish-claimed side of the Cypriot capital Nicosia, and said that any negotiations with the internationally-recognized government of Cyprus must start by recognizing the sovereignty of the TRNC, AP reported on June 12.

Turkey: Erdogan Visits and Maintains Position on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Egypt

Economics

Energy

The partners developing Cyprus' 124 billion cubic meter (bcm) Aphrodite gas field -- Chevron, NewMed Energy and Shell -- submitted a revamped development plan to the Cypriot government that aims to connect the gas field to Egypt, Reuters reported on May 31.

Cyprus: Revamped Aphrodite Gas Field Project Would See Connection to Egypt

Italian oil and gas giant Eni plans to approve Cyprus' first offshore natural gas project in 2024, Upstream reported on April 12.

Cyprus: Eni Looks to Approve Cyprus' First Offshore Gas Project in 2024

Military & Security

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he plans to reinforce the country's military presence in northern Cyprus (the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus that is mainly ethnically Turkish Cypriot) in response to the United States lifting its defense trade embargo on Cyprus earlier in September, Reuters reported Sept. 28.

Turkey: President Erdogan Vows to Increase Militarization of Northern Cyprus

Environmental Issues

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Cyprus’ energy minister said ExxonMobil will start new drilling operations at the country’s Glaucus-1 site in 6-8 weeks to better determine the size of Cyprus’ 2019 natural gas discovery, AP reported Oct. 13.

Cyprus: ExxonMobil to Start New Drilling Operations at Glaucus Discovery

Greece

Negotiations over the future of Cyprus ended on April 29 without an agreement, as the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot delegations failed to reach a deal on how to end almost five decades of division in the island, Bloomberg has reported. 

Greece, Turkey: Cyprus Reunification Talks End Without a Deal

Europe

Security

Turkey's Resurgence

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The presidents of the European Commission met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on April 6 to discuss updating the two sides' customs agreement, as well as extending their migration agreement, Politico has reported. 

Turkey: EU Leaders Offer Greater Cooperation in Meeting With Erdogan

The Turkish drillship Yavuz will begin exploration operations in the Eastern Mediterranean on Oct. 7, according to Turkish officials, Reuters reported Oct. 4. The Cypriot government has condemned the activities in official statements.

Cyprus, Turkey: Turkish Drillship to Begin Exploration in Cypriot-Claimed Waters

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Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

The flags of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (L) and the Republic of Cyprus (R) are divided by a crack.

Despite Turkey-EU rapprochement, Cypriot reunification remains unlikely, but economic deals may still move forward.

Despite EU-Turkey Rapprochement, Cypriot Reunification Remains Out of Reach

Media

Podcasts

What does the EU-Turkey rapprochement mean, and could it reunify Cyprus?

Essential Geopolitics: Is EU-Turkey Rapprochement an Opportunity for Cypriot Reunification?

Assessments

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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

Guidance

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Argentine President Alberto Fernandez speaks during a rally in Merlo, Argentina, on Nov. 11, 2021, ahead of the country’s upcoming midterm elections. 

COVID-19

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Midterm Elections in Argentina, a Virtual Biden-Xi Summit

The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

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A photo shows the Egina FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) unit berthed at a harbor in Lagos, Nigeria. 

Brexit

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

European Disintegration

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The Weekly Rundown: Hong Kong Protests and Progress on Nigeria’s Oil Reform Bill

Morocco

EU: Regional Blocs

Brussels’ proposed new Pact on Migration and Asylum lacks a mechanism to distribute migrants across the bloc, meaning countries in the Mediterranean will continue to carry most of the burden.

Poking Holes in the New EU Migration Plan 

Canada

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (L) and other officials wait for a Throne Speech on Dec. 5, 2019, at the Senate in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. Plans to Bolster Its Iran Sanctions Case, a Throne Speech in Canada

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Relatives of the five Israeli victims of a suicide blast that targeted a bus of tourists in Bulgaria mourn in Sofia on Aug. 28, 2012.

Iran's Arc of Influence

Recent history indicates that despite its global networks and ambitions, Iran is a far more formidable threat closer to home. 

Iran Will Find Retaliating Against the U.S. Easier in the Middle East

Stratfor Threat Lens

North Macedonia

The Fate of the Eurozone

After more than four years of left-wing leadership, Greece's government is now under the control of a conservative party. But the lingering effects of the long Greek economic crisis will dampen the incoming administration's pro-business ambitions.

Greece: A Tough Road Awaits Athens' New Conservative Government

Ekrem Imamoglu, the Republican People's Party candidate for mayor of Istanbul, won a narrow victory during the first March 31 election, defeating the candidate from the ruling Justice and Development Party. But Turkey’s election body annulled the result after claims of "irregularities." A revote has since been scheduled for June 23.

Turkey's ruling party has shown it will do almost anything to remain in power -- whether it's calling for do-overs to win elections, or pursuing economically-risky policies to win voters' support.

The AKP's Thirst for Power Risks Leaving Turkey High and Dry

Cyprus is an island country in the Eastern Mediterranean surrounded by Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt and Greece. The largest city on the island, Nicosia, lies between two mountain ranges, the Kyrenia Mountains in the north and the Troodos Mountains in the central south.     Major powers, including the Ottomans and the British, have occupied the island and established military bases there due to its strategic location. From Cyprus, these powers can project influence in the Mediterranean and the Levant, and they can easily access sea lanes and trade chokepoints between Europe, Africa and Asia, such as the Suez Canal.     Cyprus obtained independence in 1960, but foreign powers retained their interest in the country. The United Kingdom kept military bases in the island, and after a coup by pro-Greek forces in 1974, Turkey occupied the northern part of Cyprus. The island is often involved in the broader disputes between Greece and Turkey, and to this day, it remains divided between a mostly Greek-speaking south and a predominantly Turkish-speaking north. Turkey is the only country that recognizes Northern Cyprus as a state.     Cyprus and Turkey claim many of the same waters in the Mediterranean, and ever since natural gas reserves were discovered in these areas, the two nations have engaged in intensifying disputes about their exclusive economic zones. Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004, but membership applies de facto only in the south. In 2013, Cyprus had to request an international bailout to rescue its banks, many of which had a strong presence of wealthy Russians who used the island as a tax haven.    The island's strategic position has been a blessing and a curse, as the Cypriots are often subject to events and powers beyond their control. Thus, Cyprus' main geopolitical challenge is to retain as much autonomy as possible in an often-volatile neighborhood.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey: Erdogan Visits and Maintains Position on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Cyprus: Revamped Aphrodite Gas Field Project Would See Connection to Egypt

Cyprus: Eni Looks to Approve Cyprus' First Offshore Gas Project in 2024

Turkey: President Erdogan Vows to Increase Militarization of Northern Cyprus

Cyprus: ExxonMobil to Start New Drilling Operations at Glaucus Discovery

Greece, Turkey: Cyprus Reunification Talks End Without a Deal

Turkey: EU Leaders Offer Greater Cooperation in Meeting With Erdogan

Cyprus, Turkey: Turkish Drillship to Begin Exploration in Cypriot-Claimed Waters

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