Finland

Estonia

Russia

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

U.S. and European intelligence agencies believe that recent submarine cable ruptures in the Baltic Sea caused by commercial ships dragging their anchors along the seabed were likely accidental, with investigations reportedly uncovering no definitive evidence of intentional sabotage or links to Moscow, The Washington Post reported on Jan. 19. 

Estonia, Finland, Russia: Baltic Sea Subsea Cable Ruptures Likely Accidental, Not Sabotage

Energy

Estonia deployed a military ship to patrol the EstLink 1 subsea power cable after EstLink 2, connecting Finland and Estonia, was disconnected on Dec. 25 following an incident allegedly caused by an oil tanker dragging its anchor along the seabed, Reuters reported Dec. 27.

Estonia, Finland, Russia: Military Vessel Deployed to Patrol Subsea Power Cable Following Suspected Russian Sabotage

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Finnish authorities have seized and boarded a Russian oil tanker suspected of intentionally damaging an electricity sea cable connecting Estonia and Finland on Dec. 25, the Financial Times reported Dec. 26.

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

China

Lithuania

Germany

Sweden

The operations of two subsea cables running across the Baltic Sea -- the C-Lion1 subsea cable connecting Finland and Germany and the nearby BCS East-West Interlink cable linking Lithuania to the Swedish island of Gotland -- were disrupted apparently due to physical damage, Reuters reported on Nov. 18.

Europe: Two Baltic Subsea Cables Ruptured in Suspected Sabotage

Latvia

France

Romania

Spain

Italy

Politics

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled her team of Commissioners, a press release by the Commission shows Sept. 17. 

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

Japan

South Korea

Poland

Ireland

Cyber

Finland, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Poland and South Korea joined the U.S.-led international coalition against the proliferation and dissemination of spyware, according to a joint statement released by the White House on March 18. 

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

Luxembourg

Malta

Czech Republic

Denmark

Greece

Belgium

Bulgaria

Portugal

Croatia

Cyprus

Austria

Slovakia

Slovenia

Netherlands

Hungary

The European Commission recommended reducing the European Union's net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, Reuters reported Feb. 6. 

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

Ukraine

European Union member states unanimously agreed to a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) financial support package for Ukraine as part of their joint budget through 2027, for which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lifted his veto on the initiative, Reuters reported Feb. 1.

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

Europe

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

As 2024 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

2023: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

United Kingdom

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s National Coalition party, speaks to the media in Helsinki following parliamentary elections on April 2, 2023. 

The next government will not dispute Finland's NATO membership, but a right-wing coalition could increase tensions with the EU on issues like fiscal integration and immigration.

Government Change in Helsinki Will Not Affect Finland's NATO Prospects

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C) on Oct. 1, 2022, addresses parliament in Ankara, Turkey. A breakthrough in NATO accession negotiations between Turkey and Sweden and Finland is unlikely before Turkey's national elections later in 2023.

A breakthrough in NATO accession negotiations between Turkey and Sweden and Finland is unlikely before Turkey's national elections.

As Elections Near, Turkey Will Still Block Sweden and Finland's NATO Aspirations

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 18, 2022, at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara. 

Delaying Finnish and Swedish membership to wrest concessions from the Nordic nations could jeopardize arms deals and aid packages for Turkey from NATO members.

Turkey's Risky Strategy of Blocking Finland's and Sweden's NATO Membership

Podcasts

Essential Geopolitics: How Turkey Is Keeping NATO on Its Toes

NATO headquarters on Feb. 11, 2020, in Brussels, Belgium. 

The Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

While Moscow will respond with disruptive measures, direct conflict between Russia and Sweden or Finland is unlikely at this time.

How Russia Would Respond to Finnish and Swedish NATO Membership

Canada

Iceland

Polar bears in Essen Bay off the coast of Zemlya Georga -- an island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago -- on August 22, 2021.

China in Transition

The suspension of Arctic Council activities following Russia's re-invasion of Ukraine presents an opening for China to challenge Arctic governance.

China's Opportunity to Break Into Arctic Governance

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (center), Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (left) and Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde (right) give a press conference after their meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Jan. 24, 2022. 

Security

Stockholm and Helsinki will avoid making such a major policy decision for now. But if public support for joining NATO outlasts the current war, future governments may reconsider. 


In Sweden and Finland, Russia's Ukraine Invasion Builds the Case for NATO Membership

Located in Northern Europe, Finland shares borders with Sweden, Russia and Norway, and the Gulf of Finland separates it from Estonia to the south. Finland's destiny has traditionally been shaped by its more powerful neighbors. During the Middle Ages, Finland progressively became part of the kingdom of Sweden. It was often a battleground between Sweden and Russia, and in the early 19th century it became an autonomous grand duchy in the Russian Empire. Finland gained independence only in 1917, and after World War II it chose a policy of neutrality, seeking a balance between Russia and the West. This became known as "Finlandization," a policy that to some extent continues to this day.     Finland is mostly flat, with few hills, thousands of lakes and islands, and large forests. Its cold weather explains why most of the population lives in the south of the country, where it is warmer and conditions for agriculture are better. Helsinki is the capital, and the Greater Helsinki area is Finland's core, because 1.5 million of the roughly 5.5 million people in the country live there. The region accounts for about a third of the country's gross domestic product. Because of its distance from large European markets, Finland lagged in industrialization, traditionally relying on agriculture, forestry and the production of paper. After World War II, the country started industrialization and economic liberalization, as it focused on electronics and services.     To some extent, Finland is still seeking a balance between its neighbors. While it joined the European Union in 1995 and the eurozone in the early 2000s, it is not a member of NATO. It is also interested in keeping close ties with its Nordic neighbors, and it is a founding member of the Nordic Council and of the intergovernmental bloc that was created even before the European Union. Finland's main geopolitical challenge is to preserve its independence and prevent its neighbors from dictating its future again. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Estonia, Finland, Russia: Baltic Sea Subsea Cable Ruptures Likely Accidental, Not Sabotage

Estonia, Finland, Russia: Military Vessel Deployed to Patrol Subsea Power Cable Following Suspected Russian Sabotage

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Europe: Two Baltic Subsea Cables Ruptured in Suspected Sabotage

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Unanimously Agree to New 50 Billion Euro Aid Package for Kyiv

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