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Ireland

Ireland's foreign minister Micheal Martin (right), Irish Defence Forces chief Sean Clancy (left) and Brigadier General Tony Cudmore (center) meet Irish President Michael D. Higgins in Dublin, Ireland, on April 13, 2023. 

Military & Security

An ongoing debate over military neutrality is unlikely to see Ireland pursue NATO membership anytime soon, but that won't keep it from increasing its cooperation with the alliance.

Will Ireland Join NATO?

United States

United Kingdom

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with the press before boarding Air Force One, as he departs for Northern Ireland, at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on April 11, 2023. 

Politics

The U.S. president's trip is unlikely to end the province's political stalemate or improve its economic climate, meaning the risk of isolated episodes of unrest and violence remains high.

In Northern Ireland, Biden's Visit Comes at a Complex Time

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Belfast Harbour on Jan. 17, 2023, in Northern Ireland. U.S. President Joe Biden on April 11 will visit Belfast, Northern Ireland, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Economics

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Travels to Northern Ireland, a Saudi-Omani Delegation Visits Yemen

Europe

Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O'Neill holds a press conference outside the Northern Ireland Assembly in Belfast on Nov. 9, 2022, after the United Kingdom announced an extended deadline for Northern Ireland's main parties to form a government before a new election is triggered. 

London now has a few more months to hash out a deal with Brussels on customs controls in the Irish Sea, which has barred the formation of a regional government in Belfast.

By Delaying Northern Ireland's Election, the U.K. Buys More Time to Settle Its Trade Disputes With the EU

Mexico

Electoral posters of candidates June 8, 2022, in Montpellier, France, ahead of June 12 and June 19 parliamentary elections. Should the far-left opposition take control of the National Assembly after the June 19 second round, it will be able to appoint a prime minister.

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: French Legislative Elections, U.S. Climate Envoy Travels to Mexico

Trucks on May 17, 2022, disembark a ferry at Larne port, north of Belfast, Northern Ireland. While a British government proposal to unilaterally abandon some parts of the Northern Ireland protocol is probably a negotiation tactic, it will make talks with the European Union tougher and eventually could spark a trade war. 

The proposal is probably a negotiation tactic, but it will make talks with the European Union tougher and could spark a trade war.

The U.K. Warns It May Quit Some Parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol

Brexit

Michelle O'Neill (center, left) and Mary Lou McDonald -- the vice president and president, respectively, of the Irish political party Sinn Fein -- speak to reporters on May 07, 2022, after the results of Northern Ireland's legislative election were announced.

European Disintegration

The republican party's first legislative win in the British-controlled region will revive the debate over a united Ireland, as well as EU-U.K. talks on customs controls at the Irish Sea.

What Sinn Fein's Victory in Northern Ireland Means for Reunification, Brexit Tensions

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The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Talks, the Lunar New Year Begins

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For most of 2021, the status of Northern Ireland has created friction between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Will 2022 be the same?

Essential Geopolitics: The U.K., the EU and the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2022

Anti-Brexit protesters wave the flags of the United Kingdom, Ireland and the European Union outside the U.K. Parliament building in London on Oct. 13, 2021. 

Recent developments suggest the EU and U.K. may soon ink a deal on customs controls at the Irish Sea to avoid a costly trade war. 

An End to the Brexit Dispute Over Northern Ireland Takes Shape

Police officers stand guard as pro-British loyalists protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol at Belfast Harbour on July 3, 2021. 

London’s threat to suspend the agreement could jeopardize its free trade deal with Brussels while undermining other aspects of the bilateral relationship.

A Suspended Northern Ireland Protocol Could Snowball Into a Greater EU-U.K. Rift

Supply Chains

A sign is seen at Stena Line's Irish Sea ferry terminal in Liverpool on Sept. 7, 2021.

While they’ve avoided short-term trade disruptions, Brussels and London still have fundamentally different goals for amending the Northern Ireland protocol. 

The EU and U.K. Reach a Temporary Truce on Northern Ireland

Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein became Northern Ireland's largest local government party after securing six out of 11 councils at local elections and winning 31% of first preference votes, ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) with 23%, Reuters reported on May 20.

U.K.: Irish Nationalist Sinn Fein Solidifies Position as Northern Ireland's Largest Party at Local Elections

Ireland's Data Protection Commission (DPC) is set to hand out a record-high fine to Meta Platforms for its violation of the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), Reuters reported on May 17.

Ireland: Regulatory Commission to Fine Meta, Ban Some Data Transfer

The Irish government won a confidence vote in the Dail (the lower house of parliament), as 85 lawmakers voted in favor of Taoiseach Micheal Martin's government and 66 voted against it, the Irish Examiner reported July 12.

Ireland: Government Wins Confidence Motion

Northern Ireland First Minister Paul Givan, a member of the Democratic Unionist Party, announced his resignation in protest of Brexit trade rules, Reuters reported Feb. 3.

Northern Ireland: First Minister's Resignation Could Spark Political Turmoil, Early Elections

The Fate of the Eurozone

The European Commission unveiled a series of proposals aimed at reaching a compromise with the U.K. over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, Politico reported Oct. 13.

EU, U.K.: Brussels Presents Proposals to Reduce Customs Checks at Irish Sea

The leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Edwin Poots, resigned as party leader on June 17, only three weeks after taking the position, Reuters reported June 17.

U.K.: Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP Resigns After Only Three Weeks

The vice president of the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, on June 9 confirmed that the European Union will consider imposing tariff hikes on British exports if the United Kingdom fails to fully implement the Northern Ireland protocol of the EU-U.K. Withdrawal Agreement, The Guardian reported.

EU, U.K.: No Northern Ireland Deal, but Negotiations Will Continue

Serbia

Poland

Hungary

At the request of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, foreign ministers from Poland, Ireland, Serbia and Hungary will visit China from May 29-31 to discuss economic cooperation, Reuters has reported. 

Poland, Ireland, Serbia, Hungary: Foreign Ministers to Visit China for Economic Talks

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The Republic of Ireland lies on an island to the northwest of continental Europe and is separated from Great Britain by the Irish Sea. The island itself is a low plain surrounded by a ring of coastal mountains. Western Ireland, exposed to harsh weather from the Atlantic, is less habitable than the east. The River Shannon, the longest river in the British Isles, bisects the island and has been important for both navigation and as a strategic boundary. Agriculture historically was Ireland’s primary economic activity and a lack of coal and iron delayed industrialization. The great famine of the mid-19th century caused mass immigration and by 1911, Ireland had only about half of its peak population. The country’s rugged coast prevents natural ports, restricting trade in all but a few places. One of those places is Dublin, the capital. Dublin’s vicinity to Great Britain has also helped make it Ireland’s economic center. But Ireland’s reliance on Britain has been a source of conflict for hundreds of years. Currently the island is split between the predominantly Catholic Republic of Ireland, which has about 80 percent of the island’s territory and accounts for 70 percent of its population, and the predominantly Protestant Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In 1973, Ireland joined the European Community, the entity that preceded the European Union. In the early 2000s, Ireland became one of the founding members of the eurozone. Modern-day Ireland is a services-based economy with an important presence of foreign direct investment. Because of Ireland’s relative isolation from mainland Europe, rugged topography and lack of natural resources, the island has struggled to form a united country capable of defending against outside powers, especially the United Kingdom.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.K.: Irish Nationalist Sinn Fein Solidifies Position as Northern Ireland's Largest Party at Local Elections

Ireland: Regulatory Commission to Fine Meta, Ban Some Data Transfer

Ireland: Government Wins Confidence Motion

Northern Ireland: First Minister's Resignation Could Spark Political Turmoil, Early Elections

EU, U.K.: Brussels Presents Proposals to Reduce Customs Checks at Irish Sea

U.K.: Leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP Resigns After Only Three Weeks

EU, U.K.: No Northern Ireland Deal, but Negotiations Will Continue

Poland, Ireland, Serbia, Hungary: Foreign Ministers to Visit China for Economic Talks

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