Ireland

Politics

Ireland's Prime Minister Leo Varadkar will resign as head of the ruling center-right Fine Gael party and as the country's leader in April, AP reported on March 20.

Ireland: Prime Minister Announces Surprising Resignation, Early Elections Unlikely

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Finland, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Poland and South Korea joined the U.S.-led international coalition against the proliferation and dissemination of spyware, according to a joint statement released by the White House on March 18. 

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

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The European Commission recommended reducing the European Union's net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, Reuters reported Feb. 6. 

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

Negotiators from EU member states and the European Parliament reached a preliminary agreement to overhaul the bloc's asylum and migration rules, Reuters reported on Dec. 20.

EU: Bloc's Institutions Reach Agreements on New Asylum and Migration Rules

Georgia

The European Council voted to grant EU candidate status to Georgia, and both government officials and opposition politicians in Georgia praised the decision, Civil Georgia reported on Dec. 14. 

Georgia: European Commission Recommends Georgia for EU Candidate Status

United Kingdom

Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein became Northern Ireland's largest local government party after securing six out of 11 councils at local elections and winning 31% of first preference votes, ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) with 23%, Reuters reported on May 20.

U.K.: Irish Nationalist Sinn Fein Solidifies Position as Northern Ireland's Largest Party at Local Elections

United States

Ireland's Data Protection Commission (DPC) is set to hand out a record-high fine to Meta Platforms for its violation of the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), Reuters reported on May 17.

Ireland: Regulatory Commission to Fine Meta, Ban Some Data Transfer

The Irish government won a confidence vote in the Dail (the lower house of parliament), as 85 lawmakers voted in favor of Taoiseach Micheal Martin's government and 66 voted against it, the Irish Examiner reported July 12.

Ireland: Government Wins Confidence Motion

Snapshots

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Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Ireland's foreign minister Micheal Martin (right), Irish Defence Forces chief Sean Clancy (left) and Brigadier General Tony Cudmore (center) meet Irish President Michael D. Higgins in Dublin, Ireland, on April 13, 2023. 

An ongoing debate over military neutrality is unlikely to see Ireland pursue NATO membership anytime soon, but that won't keep it from increasing its cooperation with the alliance.

Will Ireland Join NATO?

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with the press before boarding Air Force One, as he departs for Northern Ireland, at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on April 11, 2023. 

The U.S. president's trip is unlikely to end the province's political stalemate or improve its economic climate, meaning the risk of isolated episodes of unrest and violence remains high.

In Northern Ireland, Biden's Visit Comes at a Complex Time

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Belfast Harbour on Jan. 17, 2023, in Northern Ireland. U.S. President Joe Biden on April 11 will visit Belfast, Northern Ireland, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Travels to Northern Ireland, a Saudi-Omani Delegation Visits Yemen

Europe

Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O'Neill holds a press conference outside the Northern Ireland Assembly in Belfast on Nov. 9, 2022, after the United Kingdom announced an extended deadline for Northern Ireland's main parties to form a government before a new election is triggered. 

London now has a few more months to hash out a deal with Brussels on customs controls in the Irish Sea, which has barred the formation of a regional government in Belfast.

By Delaying Northern Ireland's Election, the U.K. Buys More Time to Settle Its Trade Disputes With the EU

Mexico

Electoral posters of candidates June 8, 2022, in Montpellier, France, ahead of June 12 and June 19 parliamentary elections. Should the far-left opposition take control of the National Assembly after the June 19 second round, it will be able to appoint a prime minister.

The Weekly Rundown: French Legislative Elections, U.S. Climate Envoy Travels to Mexico

Trucks on May 17, 2022, disembark a ferry at Larne port, north of Belfast, Northern Ireland. While a British government proposal to unilaterally abandon some parts of the Northern Ireland protocol is probably a negotiation tactic, it will make talks with the European Union tougher and eventually could spark a trade war. 

Brexit

The proposal is probably a negotiation tactic, but it will make talks with the European Union tougher and could spark a trade war.

The U.K. Warns It May Quit Some Parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol

Michelle O'Neill (center, left) and Mary Lou McDonald -- the vice president and president, respectively, of the Irish political party Sinn Fein -- speak to reporters on May 07, 2022, after the results of Northern Ireland's legislative election were announced.

European Disintegration

The republican party's first legislative win in the British-controlled region will revive the debate over a united Ireland, as well as EU-U.K. talks on customs controls at the Irish Sea.

What Sinn Fein's Victory in Northern Ireland Means for Reunification, Brexit Tensions

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The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Talks, the Lunar New Year Begins

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For most of 2021, the status of Northern Ireland has created friction between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Will 2022 be the same?

Essential Geopolitics: The U.K., the EU and the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2022

Anti-Brexit protesters wave the flags of the United Kingdom, Ireland and the European Union outside the U.K. Parliament building in London on Oct. 13, 2021. 

Recent developments suggest the EU and U.K. may soon ink a deal on customs controls at the Irish Sea to avoid a costly trade war. 

An End to the Brexit Dispute Over Northern Ireland Takes Shape

Police officers stand guard as pro-British loyalists protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol at Belfast Harbour on July 3, 2021. 

Supply Chains

London’s threat to suspend the agreement could jeopardize its free trade deal with Brussels while undermining other aspects of the bilateral relationship.

A Suspended Northern Ireland Protocol Could Snowball Into a Greater EU-U.K. Rift

The Republic of Ireland lies on an island to the northwest of continental Europe and is separated from Great Britain by the Irish Sea. The island itself is a low plain surrounded by a ring of coastal mountains. Western Ireland, exposed to harsh weather from the Atlantic, is less habitable than the east. The River Shannon, the longest river in the British Isles, bisects the island and has been important for both navigation and as a strategic boundary. Agriculture historically was Ireland’s primary economic activity and a lack of coal and iron delayed industrialization. The great famine of the mid-19th century caused mass immigration and by 1911, Ireland had only about half of its peak population. The country’s rugged coast prevents natural ports, restricting trade in all but a few places. One of those places is Dublin, the capital. Dublin’s vicinity to Great Britain has also helped make it Ireland’s economic center. But Ireland’s reliance on Britain has been a source of conflict for hundreds of years. Currently the island is split between the predominantly Catholic Republic of Ireland, which has about 80 percent of the island’s territory and accounts for 70 percent of its population, and the predominantly Protestant Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In 1973, Ireland joined the European Community, the entity that preceded the European Union. In the early 2000s, Ireland became one of the founding members of the eurozone. Modern-day Ireland is a services-based economy with an important presence of foreign direct investment. Because of Ireland’s relative isolation from mainland Europe, rugged topography and lack of natural resources, the island has struggled to form a united country capable of defending against outside powers, especially the United Kingdom.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ireland: Prime Minister Announces Surprising Resignation, Early Elections Unlikely

Cyberspace: Additional Countries Join International Anti-Spyware Coalition

EU: Brussels to Exclude Agriculture from 90% Emissions Reduction Target for 2040

EU: Bloc's Institutions Reach Agreements on New Asylum and Migration Rules

Georgia: European Commission Recommends Georgia for EU Candidate Status

U.K.: Irish Nationalist Sinn Fein Solidifies Position as Northern Ireland's Largest Party at Local Elections

Ireland: Regulatory Commission to Fine Meta, Ban Some Data Transfer

Ireland: Government Wins Confidence Motion

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