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On Geopolitics

United States

China

Europe

Norway

Russia

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Assessments

Iran

Denmark

Sweden

A Norweigan coast guard ship patrols the waters surrounding an  offshore gas platform in the Troll gas field off the west coast of Norway.

Cyber

Energy

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

With its natural gas exports to Europe now nearing zero, Moscow may start targeting the continent's maritime oil and gas industry via cyberattacks and physical strikes. 

The Nord Stream Leaks Set a Precedent for Russian Attacks on Europe's Energy Infrastructure

Canada

Finland

Iceland

Polar bears in Essen Bay off the coast of Zemlya Georga -- an island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago -- on August 22, 2021.

China in Transition

The suspension of Arctic Council activities following Russia's re-invasion of Ukraine presents an opening for China to challenge Arctic governance.

China's Opportunity to Break Into Arctic Governance

Guidance

Argentina

Iraq

Afghanistan

The Jihadist Wars

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: 9/11 at Twenty

Snapshots

A photo taken in December 2014 shows Norway’s parliament building in Oslo. 

Economics

European Disintegration

The September vote will increase the influence of small parties that want to ban additional oil exploration and reduce Norway’s ties with the EU. 

How Norway’s Election Could Impact Its Economic Future

On Security

France

Germany

United Kingdom

Spain

Stephan Balliet, who is accused of shooting two people dead after an attempt to storm a synagogue in Halle an der Saale, eastern Germany, wears a face mask as he waits for the start of the 18th day of his trial on Nov. 3, 2020, at the district court in Magdeburg, eastern Germany. The violent right-wing threat in Europe is growing as terrorists exploit ongoing political, economic, and social tensions to expand their activities, including plotting attacks.

The violent right-wing threat in Europe is growing as terrorists exploit ongoing political, economic, and social tensions to expand their activities, including plotting attacks.

Right-Wing Terrorism in Europe: A Threat Poised to Expand in 2021

Security

Austria

Netherlands

Saudi Arabia

Emergency personnel on Oct. 31, 2020, in Lyon, France, at the scene of an attack on a Greek Orthodox priest. The continual reemergence of the Mohammed cartoon controversy suggests that this issue will remain an issue that motivates violence for years to come.

The continual reemergence of the Mohammed cartoon controversy suggests that this issue will remain an issue that motivates violence for years to come.

How Satirical Cartoons Have Become a Flashpoint for Violence in Europe and Abroad

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Greenland

A Russian, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine traverses the Barents Sea in the Arctic. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Globalization

Russia's Internal Struggle

The world's northernmost frontier has taken on a renewed significance for the countries that have the most to lose, and gain, from the Arctic's melting ice and shifting political order.

A Warmer Arctic Makes for Hotter Geopolitics

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

Switzerland

Ukraine

Several law enforcement agencies arrested 12 ransomware gang members in Switzerland and Ukraine, Europol announced in an Oct. 29 press release.

Switzerland, Ukraine: Ransomware Operators Arrested in Police Bust

The center-left Labour Party won Norway's Sept. 13 parliamentary election with 26.4% of the vote and is expected to form a government with other like-minded parties, The Guardian has reported.

Norway: Center-Left Parties to Form Government After General Election

Australia

The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is considering sanctions against China in line with those released by the European Union on March 22 for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Klassekampen reported March 30.

China, Norway: Oslo Considering Sanctions on Beijing as Xinjiang Ripples Continue

The Finnish Parliament announced that hackers accessed some legislators’ email accounts after gaining entry into its internal IT system in the fall of 2020, ZDNet reported Dec. 28.

Finland: Parliament Says Its Members’ Email Accounts Were Hacked in Fall 2020

United Arab Emirates

In a report delivered to the U.N. Security Council on June 6, the United Arab Emirates classified a May 12 incident involving four oil tankers damaged in the Persian Gulf off the coast of the Emirati port of Fujairah as a "sophisticated and coordinated" act by a state actor, Reuters reported.

UAE, Saudi Arabia, Norway: Report on Oil Tanker Attack Avoids Iran Accusation

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Iran's Arc of Influence

Norway's Finance Ministry has proposed new rules that would require the country's sovereign wealth fund to sell its shares in oil and gas exploration and production companies, Argus Media reported March 8.

Norway: Sovereign Wealth Fund to Sell Oil, Gas Holdings

Norway's PST domestic intelligence agency has warned that the Chinese government was using Huawei equipment to steal sensitive information, the South China Morning Post reported Feb. 5. The Chinese Embassy in Oslo swiftly responded by calling the accusations ridiculous.

China: Norwegian Intelligence Agency Accuses Beijing of Using Huawei Technology for Espionage

India

India's Own Worst Enemy

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Stockholm April 16 to attend the first-ever India-Nordic summit, which includes a joint meeting with the prime ministers of India, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, Times of India reported April 16.

Sweden: Indian Prime Minister To Attend India-Nordic Summit 

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Armenia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Brazil

Burundi

Israel

Nepal

Cameroon

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Libya

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

Japan

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

<p>Located on the Scandinavian Peninsula, Norway shares land borders with Russia, Finland and Sweden and has coastline on the Barents, Norwegian and North Seas. The country&rsquo;s core lies in the southeast around its capital Oslo. This lowland region is Norway&rsquo;s most habitable and is closest to the more populated parts of Europe. With a rugged coastline consisting of about 50,000 islands, the Scandinavian Mountains stretching the length of the country and proximity to the Arctic, Norway is difficult to populate and, therefore, control. As a result, it has historically been dominated by regional powers such as Denmark and Sweden. After gaining independence in 1905 and maintaining neutrality throughout World War I, Norway was occupied by Nazi Germany in 1940 despite, again, proclaiming neutrality. Following the war, Norway joined NATO and tightened economic relations with continental Europe to increase its national security. As member of the European Economic Area, Norway is part of several European Union institutions. However, Norwegians rejected full EU membership in referendums in 1972 and 1994. With a population of only about 5 million people, Norway has forged close ties with other Nordic countries to stifle the influence of continental Europe and Russia. Offshore oil and natural gas discoveries in the late 1960s have made the country one of the richest in the world and are vital pillars to its modern economy. But as reserves in the North Sea are depleting, the Barents Sea and Arctic are gaining importance for their natural resources and potential trade routes. Therefore, the upcoming geographic challenge for Norway, with its small population, is to secure its interests in the north through exploration and regional collaboration.</p>

A Crude Recovery

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SITUATION REPORTS

Switzerland, Ukraine: Ransomware Operators Arrested in Police Bust

Norway: Center-Left Parties to Form Government After General Election

China, Norway: Oslo Considering Sanctions on Beijing as Xinjiang Ripples Continue

Finland: Parliament Says Its Members’ Email Accounts Were Hacked in Fall 2020

UAE, Saudi Arabia, Norway: Report on Oil Tanker Attack Avoids Iran Accusation

Norway: Sovereign Wealth Fund to Sell Oil, Gas Holdings

China: Norwegian Intelligence Agency Accuses Beijing of Using Huawei Technology for Espionage

Sweden: Indian Prime Minister To Attend India-Nordic Summit

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