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People walk past a mural reading ''Republic of Kosova'' in Pristina on Feb. 27, 2023, as the European Union hosts talks between the rival leaders of Kosovo and Serbia.

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The deal marks a key first step in avoiding another conflict in the Balkans. But the true test will be getting Belgrade and Pristina to ink a legally binding comprehensive agreement.

The Promise and Potential Pitfalls of the EU-Sponsored Pact Between Serbia and Kosovo

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Officials stand near flags of participating countries and organizations at the venue where the second meeting of the G-20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies under India's G-20 presidency has begun Feb. 22, 2023, in Bengaluru, India.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Serbian and Kosovar Leaders Meet, G-20 Meetings Reveal Divergent Global Priorities

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In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast, we look at rising tensions between Kosovo and Serbia.

Essential Geopolitics: Could Kosovo-Serbia Tensions Bring a New War to Europe?

NATO soldiers patrol a road near the town of Zvecan in northern Kosovo on Oct. 12, 2022.

EU diplomatic pressure and the presence of NATO troops in the region will deter Serbia and Kosovo from letting recent border clashes devolve into mass violence.

Escalating Unrest in North Kosovo Does Not Portend a Return to War

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Trucks loaded with sand form a barricade in a road near the Kosovar town of Zubin Potok on Aug. 1.

The recent flare-up in tensions between Kosovo and Serbia does not suggest that Kosovo or the wider Western Balkans region is in imminent danger of collapsing into widespread violence, but such ethnic grievances will continue to destabilize the area.

Talks in Brussels to Keep Serbia and Kosovo Looking Westward 

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Demonstrators in Belgrade, Serbia, hold up Serbian flags and a photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 24, 2022, during a rally in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

In the second part of this series, we explore China and Russia's interests in the Balkans and what their activities may mean for the region's long-term stability.

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 2: Russian and Chinese Influence

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NATO soldiers patrol a roadblock set up by ethnic Serbs near Zubin Potok, a town in northern Kosovo, on Aug. 1, 2022. 

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Despite ethnically-tinged tensions between Kosovo and Serbia that most recently made the news, there appear to be numerous restraints on a potential return to widespread regional conflict. 

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 1: Placing Recent Flashpoints in Context

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F-16 aircraft at the Danish Air Show on June 19, 2022, at Karup Airport, Denmark. Turkey wants modernization kits for its existing F-16s plus more jets, but some members of Congress remain opposed to Turkey obtaining more such advanced military technology, citing concerns about Turkey's warm ties with Russia.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey and the U.S. Talk F-16s, Kosovo's and Serbia's Leaders Meet

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks on stage during a campaign rally for his ruling Fidesz party in Szekesfehervar, Hungary, on April 1, 2022. 

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya Presents Its National Budget, Hungary and Serbia Hold Elections

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti (right) and his Albanian counterpart, Edi Rama, hold a joint press conference in Pristina on Sept. 27, 2021. 

European Disintegration

While the formation of a “Greater Albania” is unlikely, Kosovo will continue hinting at the idea during its disputes with Serbia, which could renew unrest in the region.

The Threat of Albania-Kosovo Unification Risks Destabilizing the Balkans

Security

An external view of the building of the European Union in Brussels, Belgium. 

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As COVID-19 forces the EU to remain focused on recovering (and not enlarging) its economy, candidate countries such as Serbia risk veering away from the reforms they had been pursuing to earn their place in the bloc.

What the Fading Promise of EU Accession Means for the Balkans

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EU: Regional Blocs

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Divided EU Foreign Policies

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South Korean soldiers gather near a guard post in the border city of Paju, South Korea, on June 17, 2020.

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Echoes of the Cold War

India's Own Worst Enemy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inter-Korea and China-India Tensions, and Serbia-Kosovo Mediation

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti said he accepted a Franco-German proposal aimed at normalizing relations with Serbia after a meeting with Miroslav Lajcak, the EU special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

Serbia, Kosovo: Pristina Accepts EU Plan for Normalization With Serbia

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced plans to launch a public debate in Serbia over a Franco-German proposal to normalize relations with Kosovo, Bloomberg reported Jan. 24.

Kosovo, Serbia: Vucic Opens to Franco-German Plan for Kosovo, Fearing International Isolation

Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo have agreed to start removing the roadblocks they’ve installed across several Serb-majority municipalities and border crossings in northern Kosovo in recent weeks following the arrest of a former Serb police officer, Reuters reported Dec. 28. 

Kosovo, Serbia: Ethnic Serbs in Northern Kosovo to Start Removing Barricades

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ordered the country’s army on “full combat readiness” and dispatched army chief General Milan Mojsilovic to Serbia’s border with Kosovo as tensions flared again in northern Kosovo, Reuters reported Dec. 26, citing a statement made by Serbia’s defense minister.

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Puts Army on Alert Amid Rising Tensions in Northern Kosovo

Talks in Brussels between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti failed to yield a meaningful solution to rising tensions related to the phasing out of Serbian-issued license plates in Kosovo, Reuters reported Nov. 21.

Kosovo, Serbia: Leaders Fail to Resolve Car Plates Dispute in EU-Mediated Talks

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell invited Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti to Brussels, Belgium, for negotiations aimed at solving a crisis in Kosovo over new license plate rules, N1 reported Nov. 18.

Serbia, Kosovo: Brussels to Host Talks Between Serbia and Kosovo Amid Rising Tensions

The European Union and France are pressing Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti to negotiate solutions to recent flares in tensions and discuss proposals to normalize ties during two days of talks on the sidelines of the Nov. 11 Paris Peace Forum, Euractiv reported Nov. 11.

Serbia, Kosovo: Leaders Meet in Paris to Discuss Normalizing Ties Amid Rising Tensions

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti announced a six-month delay to the implementation of rules requiring ethnic Serbs to switch to local license plates following pressure from the European Union and the United States, Reuters reported Oct. 28.

Kosovo, Serbia: Pristina Expands Timeline for Serbs to Comply With License Plates Rules

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

SITUATION REPORTS

Serbia, Kosovo: Pristina Accepts EU Plan for Normalization With Serbia

Kosovo, Serbia: Vucic Opens to Franco-German Plan for Kosovo, Fearing International Isolation

Kosovo, Serbia: Ethnic Serbs in Northern Kosovo to Start Removing Barricades

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Puts Army on Alert Amid Rising Tensions in Northern Kosovo

Kosovo, Serbia: Leaders Fail to Resolve Car Plates Dispute in EU-Mediated Talks

Serbia, Kosovo: Brussels to Host Talks Between Serbia and Kosovo Amid Rising Tensions

Serbia, Kosovo: Leaders Meet in Paris to Discuss Normalizing Ties Amid Rising Tensions

Kosovo, Serbia: Pristina Expands Timeline for Serbs to Comply With License Plates Rules

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