United States

Iran

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Military & Security

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan to lead a U.S. delegation ahead of April 11 negotiations with Iran's delegation, which is expected to be helmed by Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, AP reported on April 10.

U.S., Iran, Israel: U.S., Iranian Negotiators Prepare for Islamabad Talks

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Russia

Economics

Energy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country was discussing security cooperation with Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, Reuters reported on April 10.

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv in Talks for More Security Cooperation With Gulf Countries

Europe

The U.S. Trump administration is considering measures to punish NATO allies it views as insufficiently supportive of U.S. action during the Iran war, including potentially redeploying U.S. troops from those countries to more supportive partners, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 8, citing U.S. officials.

NATO: U.S. Considers Troop Redeployment in Europe To Penalize NATO Allies Over Iran War

U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces in the Middle East would "remain in place" until U.S. and Iranian negotiators reach and implement a permanent agreement to end the war, and he threatened to resume strikes if Iran did not capitulate to U.S. demands, AP reported on April 8.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Forces To Remain in Region, Iran Alleges Ceasefire Violations Ahead of U.S.-Iran Talks

Iran struck targets in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7, Reuters reported on April 8.

MENA: Iran Strikes GCC Targets, Despite Ceasefire Announcement 

Madagascar

Madagascar declared a two‑week nationwide state of energy emergency in response to severe fuel shortages caused by the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, BBC reported on April 8.

Madagascar: Junta Declares State of Emergency Amid Fuel Shortages Linked to Iran War

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would grant vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz with the coordination of Iranian armed forces if U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran stopped during the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, Reuters reported on April 7.

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Armed Forces To Coordinate Strait of Hormuz Maritime Transit During Two-Week Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an April 8 Truth Social post that any country supplying Iran with "military weapons" would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff,  without specifying the authority under which the tariff would be implemented.

U.S.: Trump Threatens Tariffs on Countries Providing Weapons to Iran

Assessments

A satellite view of the Persian Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint seen on the right.

Global Trade

Fears that U.S.-Iran talks will collapse, along with Iran's ongoing efforts to formalize its authority over the strait by imposing transit fees and limiting traffic, will likely keep shippers cautious.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Likely To Remain Disrupted, Despite Ceasefire

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

China

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Snapshots

Iranians hold national flags as they gather in Tehran's Revolution Square after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, on April 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Upcoming negotiations face substantial hurdles as both sides present maximalist demands that could precipitate a return to high-intensity conflict.


Despite 11th-Hour U.S.-Iran Truce, Stumbling Blocks to Lasting Agreement Remain

Myanmar

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Djibouti

Vietnam

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

Iraq

Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.

Violent spillover from the Iran war will further complicate Iraq's government formation process, while disrupted oil exports will heavily strain Baghdad's finances and raise the risk of unrest.

Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Yemen

Houthi loyalists chant slogans on March 27, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen, as they participate in a protest staged to show support for Iran in its ongoing war against the United States and Israel.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis will likely progressively expand their target set beyond Israel if the war intensifies, raising the risk of more economically disruptive attacks on regional shipping and energy infrastructure.

The Implications of the Houthis Joining the Iran War

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

Asia-Pacific

Podcasts

How will the trajectory of China-U.S. trade conversations change in light of conflict in the Middle East?

The Decision Advantage: The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region

Cars drive past a gas station in Ponte Leccia on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on March 26, 2026. 

To address Iran-related energy disruptions, the European Union will likely opt for a patchwork of national relief measures, rather than a more comprehensive market intervention.

How the EU Is Responding to Its Latest Energy Crisis

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran, Israel: U.S., Iranian Negotiators Prepare for Islamabad Talks

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv in Talks for More Security Cooperation With Gulf Countries

NATO: U.S. Considers Troop Redeployment in Europe To Penalize NATO Allies Over Iran War

U.S., Iran: U.S. Forces To Remain in Region, Iran Alleges Ceasefire Violations Ahead of U.S.-Iran Talks

MENA: Iran Strikes GCC Targets, Despite Ceasefire Announcement

Madagascar: Junta Declares State of Emergency Amid Fuel Shortages Linked to Iran War

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Armed Forces To Coordinate Strait of Hormuz Maritime Transit During Two-Week Ceasefire

U.S.: Trump Threatens Tariffs on Countries Providing Weapons to Iran

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