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An update on current developments in The Middle East

RANE Insights: An In-Depth Overview of Middle Eastern Relations

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A Russian peacekeeper guards the Lachin Corridor, the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, on Dec. 27, 2022. 

Military & Security

As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan stall, violent flare-ups in the disputed territory and along their shared border are increasingly likely.

Reassessing the Risk of an Escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh

What's happening between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what role does China play in the agreement?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Iran and Saudi Arabia's Relationship

China

The end of their seven-year rift will ease the risk of direct conflict between the Persian Gulf neighbors, while Beijing's involvement reflects its growing influence in the region.

Iran and Saudi Arabia Ink a China-Brokered Deal to Restore Diplomatic Ties

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

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The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) flutters in front of the IAEA building in Vienna, Austria, on July 10, 2019.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: EU Commission President Visits the U.S. and Canada, China's 'Two Sessions' Meetings Begin

Azeri soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint at the Lachin corridor, the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, on Dec. 27, 2022. 

Tehran's push to fill the gap left by Russia in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia could alter the balance of power in the region. 


What to Make of Growing Iran-Azerbaijan Tensions

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chairs a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on Jan. 3, 2023. 

A suspected Israeli strike against an Iranian military facility will prompt Tehran to retaliate -- creating a risk of escalation that could threaten Iran's other regional rivals.

What to Make of Israel's Latest Likely Attack on Iran

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

A digital illustration shows missiles overlapping the Iranian flag. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Iran's expanding missile program and weapon transfers to Russia are hardening the U.S. position to the point where inking a nuclear deal may become politically infeasible.

In Addressing Iran's Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Activities, the U.S.'s Options Are Slim

Iranian soccer fans hold up a ''Woman Life Freedom'' sign in solidarity with the protests at home during Iran's match with England at the World Cup in Doha, Qatar, on Nov. 21, 2022. 

Social Issues

The mass anti-government demonstrations will drive domestic instability, harden the government against the social reforms, and further damage Tehran's foreign relationships.

Where Are the Protests in Iran Headed?

Snapshots

People demonstrate outside the Iranian embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 17, 2022, after the city was hit by swarms of drones sold by Iran to Russia, leaving at least three dead. 

While unlikely to offer up its advanced defense systems like the Iron Dome, Israel could provide more intelligence that actively helps Kyiv fend off Iran-backed Russian troops. 

Amid Increased Iranian Support to Russia, Israel Cautiously Increases Aid to Ukraine

A look at how Iran is helping Russia in Ukraine.

Essential Geopolitics: Russia, Iran, Ukraine and NATO

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi appointed Ali Akbar Ahmadian as the new secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, replacing longtime secretary Ali Shamkhani, AP reported on May 22.

Iran: Tehran Appoints New Head of Supreme National Security Council

Pakistan

Leaders from Pakistan and Iran inaugurated a border market in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province, as well as an electricity transmission line that will provide Iranian electricity to some of Pakistan's rural areas, AP reported on May 18.

Pakistan, Iran: Inauguration of Border Market, Electricity Transmission Line Signals Warming Relations

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy seized the Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on May 3.

Iran: Authorities Seize Another Oil Tanker

Iran's parliament impeached Industry Minister Reza Fatemi Amin over his poor job performance amid rising inflation, particularly regarding car prices, the Fars News Agency reported on April 30.

Iran: Industry Minister Loses Confidence Vote Over Inflation Woes

U.S. authorities ordered the seizure of the Suez Rajan tanker, which was carrying Iranian crude oil, and redirected it from China to the United States earlier the week of April 24, the Financial Times reported on April 28.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Seizure Likely Prompted Iran's Seizure of Houston-Destined Tanker

The Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers met in Beijing, China, for the first time in seven years, and they agreed on the need for regional stability and discussed how to deepen economic cooperation, AP reported on April 6.

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Foreign Minister Meeting Continues Rapprochement Trajectory

U.S. officials have discussed with European and Israeli officials the possibility of a freeze-for-freeze nuclear deal with Iran, Axios reported on April 3.

U.S., Iran: Negotiators Discuss Freeze-for-Freeze Nuclear Deal

Syria

Russia will host a deputy foreign minister-level meeting between itself, Turkey, Iran and Syria in Moscow on April 3-4, Hurriyet Daily News reported on April 3.

Russia: Turkish, Iranian, Syrian Ministers Meet in Moscow

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Tehran Appoints New Head of Supreme National Security Council

Pakistan, Iran: Inauguration of Border Market, Electricity Transmission Line Signals Warming Relations

Iran: Authorities Seize Another Oil Tanker

Iran: Industry Minister Loses Confidence Vote Over Inflation Woes

U.S., Iran: U.S. Seizure Likely Prompted Iran's Seizure of Houston-Destined Tanker

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Foreign Minister Meeting Continues Rapprochement Trajectory

U.S., Iran: Negotiators Discuss Freeze-for-Freeze Nuclear Deal

Russia: Turkish, Iranian, Syrian Ministers Meet in Moscow

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