United States

Iran

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff spoke for around 45 minutes following indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Oman on April 12, Axios reported on April 13.

Iran, U.S.: Initial Round of Nuclear Talks Ends in Direct, High-Level Discussion

During U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on April 12 in Oman, Iran may propose an interim nuclear deal with the United States in an effort to extend talks beyond U.S. President Donald Trump's 60-day deadline, Axios reported on April 10.

Iran, U.S.: Iran May Propose Interim Nuclear Deal as Khamenei Authorizes Potential Direct Talks With U.S.

Military & Security

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on April 7 that the United States and Iran would hold "direct" talks on April 12.

U.S., Iran: Governments to Hold Nuclear Talks in Oman

Iraq

Israel

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa, are reportedly in advanced discussions to disarm, Reuters reported April 7, citing senior commanders and Iraqi officials. 

Iraq: Iranian-Backed Militias Reportedly Discussing Disarmament

Qatar

The United States is "seriously" considering Iran's proposal for indirect nuclear talks through Omani intermediaries, Axios reported on April 2, citing two U.S. officials. 

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks 

Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if Iran does not reach a nuclear deal with the United States, "there will be bombing" and so-called secondary tariffs on Iranian oil, according to a March 30 interview with Axios.

Iran: Trump Threatens To Place Secondary Tariffs, Bomb Iran Absent a Nuclear Deal

China

Economics

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Luqing Petrochemical), a small Chinese "teapot" oil refinery in Shandong that operates independently of the Chinese state, and its CEO over buying and refining "hundreds of millions of dollars" worth of Iranian oil, OFAC said in a March 20 press release. 

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rebuked U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to kickstart negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, Reuters reported on March 8.

Iran: Supreme Leader Rebukes Trump's Call for Nuclear Negotiations

Assessments

Ecuador

Cambodia

Malaysia

Vietnam

Europe

Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, on March 11, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Xi Tours Southeast Asia, Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

Global Trade

Rising tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran are increasing the risk of direct strikes on Iranian territory and potential retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to disrupt global oil flows and destabilize energy markets.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Security Threats in the Strait of Hormuz and Likely Strategies

Media

Canada

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Ukraine

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Brazil

Lebanon

Japan

United Kingdom

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

A billboard showing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seen in Baghdad, Iraq, on Oct. 7, 2024.

New U.S.-Iran talks are unlikely to make headway, if they begin at all, due to distrust and a mutual unwillingness to compromise, which could see the U.S. or Israel resort to military strikes on Iran's nuclear program.

Despite Trump's Push for Talks, a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Remains Unlikely

Syria

Turkey

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Algeria

Jordan

Kuwait

Tunisia

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran, U.S.: Initial Round of Nuclear Talks Ends in Direct, High-Level Discussion

Iran, U.S.: Iran May Propose Interim Nuclear Deal as Khamenei Authorizes Potential Direct Talks With U.S.

U.S., Iran: Governments to Hold Nuclear Talks in Oman

Iraq: Iranian-Backed Militias Reportedly Discussing Disarmament

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks

Iran: Trump Threatens To Place Secondary Tariffs, Bomb Iran Absent a Nuclear Deal

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Iran: Supreme Leader Rebukes Trump's Call for Nuclear Negotiations

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