Ethiopia

Sudan

Iran

Russia

Military & Security

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, seized a military camp from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, located in the southeastern state of Sennar and launched attacks in neighboring White Nile state, Sudan Tribune reported on July 23.

Sudan: RSF Advances in White Nile and Sennar States

Mexico

United States

China

Belarus

Economics

U.S.-China Relations

In a July 10 presidential proclamation, U.S. President Joe Biden announced new 25% tariffs on steel entering the United States through Mexico that was not melted and poured in North America, as well as 10% tariffs on aluminum imported from Mexico that contained primary smelt from Belarus, China, Iran or Russia.

U.S.: New National Security Tariffs Target Chinese Steel, Aluminum Imports From Mexico

Politics

Iran continued preparations for a presidential runoff election on July 5 between hardliner Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian after the June 28 vote failed to produce a clear winner following record-low turnout, Bloomberg reported on July 1.

Iran: Hardliner Jalili and Reformist Pezeshkian To Compete in July 5 Runoff Presidential Vote

Iran's reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian led hardline conservative politician Saeed Jalili 33.1% to 28.8% in the Iranian Students Polling Agency’s final June 26 poll for the June 28 presidential election, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf lagged with 19.1%.

Iran: Presidential Election Likely To Head to Runoff as Jalili, Qalibaf Continue the Race

Two Iranian polls showed reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian with a slight lead over conservative challenger Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and ultra-hardline conservative challenger Saeed Jalil, Donya-e-Eqtesad and Tasnim News Agency reported on June 24.

Iran: Reformist Presidential Candidate's Rise Puts Pressure on Conservatives To Drop Out

Israel

U.S.-Iran Relations

The United States and Israeli intelligence communities are looking at new intelligence regarding new computer modeling by Iranian scientists that could be used to conduct research and development for nuclear weapons, Axios reported June 18. 

Iran: U.S. and Israel to Discuss New Iranian Nuclear Computer Modeling 

Somalia

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Yemen

The United States is seeking evidence of an alleged arrangement for Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels to potentially supply weapons to al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab in Somalia, CNN reported on June 11.

Somalia, Yemen: Houthis in Talks To Supply Weapons to Al Shabaab

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Energy

France, Germany and the United Kingdom submitted a draft resolution to the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, that would censure Iran over its lack of cooperation with the international nuclear watchdog, Agence France-Presse reported on June 3.

Iran: IAEA Draft Resolution Objects to Iran's Nuclear Activities, Limited Cooperation

Assessments

Kenya

South Africa

Venezuela

Palestinian Territories

Europe

Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., on July 11, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Biden's exit from the U.S. presidential race will free him to pursue more aggressive action against Russia over Ukraine and increase pressure on Israel to end its war with Hamas. 

What To Expect from Biden's Foreign Policy Farewell Tour

A billboard displaying the faces of the six candidates in Iran's 2024 presidential election with July 5 runoff winner Masoud Pezeshkian at second from right. Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints.

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints. 

A Reformist Presidential Win Is Unlikely to Shift Iran's Regional Policy

U.K. Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak holds a campaign event on June 24, 2024, in London.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: SCO Leaders Meet, France and the U.K. Hold Elections

Lebanon

An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

A limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon would likely see Iran's regional proxies provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, while a broader Israeli campaign would raise the risk of a regional war. 

Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

Snapshots

Brazil

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

India

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Bahrain

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

Peru

Moldova

The 133rd session of the Committee of Ministers at the European Council on May 17 in Strasbourg France. European Union leaders will gather June 27-28  in Brussels for the first European Council summit since the June 6-9 European Parliament elections.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine and Moldova Begin EU Accession Talks, Peru's President Visits China

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf addresses the media after submitting his candidacy for the country's presidential election on June 3, 2024.

The approval of several hard-liners and the disqualification of influential moderates ensure that the June 28 presidential election will yield few changes to the country's foreign and domestic policies.

Iran's Approved Presidential Candidates Portend a Continuation of the Status Quo

Italy

Voters on June 6 in The Hague, the first day of the election for the European Parliament. In a vote that will shape the political direction and strategic priorities of the bloc for the next five years, elections for the European Parliament run from June 6-9.

Global Elections

The Weekly Rundown: BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, European Parliamentary Elections

The June 28 presidential election will likely yield another hard-liner, but there's a chance Iran's Guardian Council will open the race up to more moderate candidates who, if elected, may seek to improve ties with the West. 

2024 Elections: Iran

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: RSF Advances in White Nile and Sennar States

U.S.: New National Security Tariffs Target Chinese Steel, Aluminum Imports From Mexico

Iran: Hardliner Jalili and Reformist Pezeshkian To Compete in July 5 Runoff Presidential Vote

Iran: Presidential Election Likely To Head to Runoff as Jalili, Qalibaf Continue the Race

Iran: Reformist Presidential Candidate's Rise Puts Pressure on Conservatives To Drop Out

Iran: U.S. and Israel to Discuss New Iranian Nuclear Computer Modeling

Somalia, Yemen: Houthis in Talks To Supply Weapons to Al Shabaab

Iran: IAEA Draft Resolution Objects to Iran's Nuclear Activities, Limited Cooperation

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