Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Venezuela

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Russia

Economics

Energy

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

United States

Israel

Military & Security

U.S. President Joe Biden said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, BBC reported on Oct. 2. 

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Republic of the Congo

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and other oil producers participating in OPEC+'s voluntary 2.2 million barrel per day production cut agreed to delay the cut's phase out from Oct. 1 to Dec. 1, OPEC+ said in a press release published on its website on Sept. 5.

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Brazil

OPEC+ may delay a planned 180,000 barrel per day increase in oil production in October, Reuters reported on Sept. 4, citing three OPEC+ sources.

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Lebanon

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

A number of countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Kuwait and Switzerland, urged their citizens to leave Lebanon amid the risk of a broader escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, The National UAE reported on June 27.

Lebanon: Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Lebanon, U.S. Prepares Evacuation Plan

Comoros

Djibouti

Mauritania

Somalia

Sudan

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Tunisia

Yemen

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

Arab leaders began to arrive in Manama, Bahrain, on May 15, for the 33rd Arab League summit that will focus on developing a consensus on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, The National reported the next day.

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah dissolved the country's parliament and suspended some constitutional articles for no more than four years, Reuters reported May 10.

Kuwait: Emir Dissolves Parliament, Suspends Some Constitutional Articles

Assessments

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Turkey

China

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Ethiopia

Middle East and North Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

By dissolving parliament and suspending articles of the constitution, Kuwait's emir is hoping to finally enact overdue economic reforms. But fears of sparking public backlash will still limit the scope of those reforms.

Kuwait's Dissolved Parliament Clears the Way for Stalled Economic Reforms

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Iranian-made satellite carriers (left) and missiles (right) are displayed in front of the Holy Defense Museum in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 20, 2020.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The integrated air and missile defense system laid out in the proposed DEFEND Act could entice Saudi Arabia to deepen normalization with Israel.

U.S. Lawmakers Unveil a Plan to Shield Middle East Allies From Iranian Aggression

Members of Kuwait’s stateless Bidoon community protest to demand citizenship and other rights in Jahra, northwest of Kuwait City, in December 2011. 

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Compared with Qatar and the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will be much slower to naturalize the descendants of desert nomads living within their borders.

What Greater GCC Citizenship Means for the Arab Gulf’s Stateless Residents

Snapshots

A portrait of Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi is seen on a billboard in Sanaa, Yemen, on Oct. 31, 2021. 

The Yemen Civil War

Iran's Arc of Influence

By alienating wealthy Arab Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, a Lebanese official’s show of support for Iran-backed proxies risks deepening his country’s financial crisis.

A Row Over Yemen Sends Lebanon-Gulf Ties Spiraling

OPEC headquarters on April 4, 2013, in Vienna. OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels will bolster the idea that oil markets are entering a supercycle, contributing to concerns about rising inflation.

OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels will bolster the idea that oil markets are entering a supercycle, contributing to concerns about rising inflation.

OPEC+ Stays the Course, Driving up Oil Price, Inflation Expectations

An oil tanker sails on Maracaibo Lake in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on March 15, 2019. OPEC'S relevance will slowly decline over the next two decades as the global transition from fossil fuels accelerates and oil's dominance in the transportation sector is diminished.

OPEC'S relevance will slowly decline over the next two decades as the global transition from fossil fuels accelerates and oil's dominance in the transportation sector is diminished.

As Oil's Importance Fades, So Will OPEC

Qatar’s defense minister (center) waits for the arrival of his Turkish counterpart to meet with the prime minister of Libya’s U.N.-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli on Aug. 17, 2020. 

The Libyan Civil War

Security

The easing of the Qatar blockade may help resolve the current GCC crisis, but it won't unite Arab Gulf states’ divergent regional policies.

A Potential Breakthrough in Qatar Paves the Way for GCC Reconciliation 

Kuwaiti legislators attend a parliamentary session at the National Assembly building in Kuwait City, Kuwait, on Oct. 20, 2020. 

COVID-19

The opposition now controls nearly half of Kuwait’s National Assembly, setting the stage for delayed reforms and political gridlock. 

What a Split Parliament Means for Kuwait’s Financial Future

The emirate of Kuwait is on the northwestern edge of the Persian Gulf, nestled between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and narrowly divided by land from Iran. Iraq's border blocks Kuwait from the fertile river lands of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, leaving the country a hot, waterless desert with no natural year-round rivers or lakes. Kuwait is, however, rich in hydrocarbons beneath its largely sandy desert.    Because of their country's low rainfall and poor soil, Kuwaitis used to live off pearling and trade and were usually dominated by whoever controlled Iraq to the north. That often made Kuwait a borderland of empires, as its settled population interacted with merchants and traders out of Iraq and Iran and the Bedouins who traveled up from Arabia. These interactions left Kuwait's population divided between Bedouins, Sunnis and Shiites.    After World War I broke up the Ottoman Empire, Kuwait achieved independence as a British protectorate. The discovery of hydrocarbons in the 1930s allowed Kuwait to rapidly transform its economy and modernize. But it still faced the challenge of needing access to trade routes and protection from powers in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. At various times, Kuwait leans on different neighbors to balance them against one another, as it did when it aligned with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. Most recently, Kuwait has relied on its alliance with the United States to ensure its independence and access to global trade routes via the Strait of Hormuz.      To ensure its security, Kuwait must have a sponsor, whether in the region or beyond it, who sees value in its independence and can guarantee its access to trade. And it must also balance its divided population, whose divisions can pull the country towards different neighbors at different times. 

SITUATION REPORTS

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Israel, Iran: Opposition to Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Program Increases Regional Risk to Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Lebanon: Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Lebanon, U.S. Prepares Evacuation Plan

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Kuwait: Emir Dissolves Parliament, Suspends Some Constitutional Articles

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