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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Washington said it agreed with Israel's objective to remove the Palestinian militant group Hamas from power in Gaza's southern city of Rafah but that it remained concerned about the possible means by which Israel would do so, according to a readout of a working group meeting between U.S. and Israeli officials published by the White House on April 18.

Israel, U.S.: Washington Agrees With Israel's Goal of Removing Hamas From Rafah

Iran

Lebanon's militant and political group Hezbollah launched a drone strike reportedly on a community center in northern Israel's Bedouin Aramsha village, injuring at least 18 Israeli soldiers, and Israel launched several airstrikes toward southern Lebanon in response, The Times of Israel reported on April 17.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Escalates Retaliatory Strikes With Advanced Drones

Lebanon's militant and political group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an April 14 bomb blast that injured four Israeli soldiers who were seen crossing the Lebanon-Israel border on a reconnaissance operation, The Times of Israel reported on April 15.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Thwarts Israeli Cross-Border Reconnaissance Operation

Syria

Economics

A Syrian gang killed a political coordinator from the Maronite Lebanese Forces party, or LF, on April 7 as they tried to steal his car in Lebanon's Jbeil district, and Lebanese authorities have arrested several suspects, including three who drove the car to Syria, Naharnet reported on April 8.

Lebanon: Murder of Lebanese Forces Party Official Heightens Sectarian Tensions

Lebanon's militant and political group Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage toward Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, killing a civilian and wounding others, The Times of Israel reported on March 27.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Deadly Rocket Barrage After Lethal Israeli Strike

France

The Lebanese government called the French proposal for a truce between the militant group Hezbollah and Israel a "significant step" toward peace on the Lebanon-Israel border, Reuters reported on March 15.

France, Israel, Lebanon: Lebanon Replies to French Proposal for Israel-Hezbollah Truce

Israeli fighter jets struck the outskirts of Lebanon's eastern city of Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley several times, reportedly targeting facilities belonging to the Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah's "aerial unit," and killing a civilian while wounding several others, The Times of Israel reported on March 11.

Israel: Military Strikes Targets in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley Twice in Two Days

Israeli airstrikes targeted a villa in the Syrian coastal city of Baniyas, reportedly killing at least one official of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, alongside two other individuals, The National reported on March 1. 

Syria, Israel: Israeli Airstrike in Syria Kills Three

Assessments

Iraq

Jordan

Yemen

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

U.S.-Iran Relations

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Media

Podcasts

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

As the Gaza conflict winds down, both sides will likely eventually seek a diplomatic resolution. But their expanding tit-for-tat exchanges nonetheless risk triggering a wider war.

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Emergency and security personnel search rubble at the site of an April 1, 2024, strike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria's capital of Damascus. Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran's Response to Israel's Audacious Damascus Strike Will Not Deter Escalation

Egypt

A ship transits the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea on Jan. 10, 2024, in Ismailia, Egypt.

Compared with crisis-ridden Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan's access to IMF loans will enable them to better weather the tourism and business disruptions brought on by the nearby Hamas-Israel conflict.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon's Economies? 

An Israeli artillery unit fires during a military drill Nov. 2, 2023, in the Golan Heights near the border with Lebanon. While a full-scale invasion of Lebanon is unlikely, in the coming weeks Israel will consider escalatory measures that involve stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war for Israel.

Israel will consider -- though it will not prefer the option of -- stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war.

What a War With Hezbollah Could Mean for Israel

Qatar

Turkey

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in southern Lebanon from Israeli bombardment along the two countries' border on Dec. 10, 2023. 

Without a sufficient buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Hamas and other militants will continue to harass northern Israel, which over time will raise the risk of a major Israeli retaliation that could spur a new conflict with Iran's Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.

Border Clashes Risk Bringing Israel's War Against Hamas to Lebanon -- And Iran

A picture taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip on Dec. 4, 2023, shows smoke lingering over the Palestinian territory following Israeli bombardment amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas.

Israel's forthcoming military operations in southern Gaza signal that the war is reaching its final stages, though problems in the Gaza Strip are far from over.

The Israel-Hamas War's Final Phase?

Israeli forces prepare to fire artillery toward the Gaza Strip on Oct. 30, 2023, in Netivot, Israel. 

While it so far doesn't amount to a full-scale invasion, Israel's expanding ground incursion into Gaza still raises the risk of Iranian retaliation, as well as more violence in the West Bank and Israel.

The 'Second Phase' of Israel's War in Gaza Has Begun. What Now?

Lebanese security forces use water cannons as they clash with protesters outside the U.S. embassy near Beirut on Oct. 18, 2023, during a demonstration in solidarity with Palestinians amid the latest Hamas-Israel war.

Regardless of their veracity, allegations of Israel's involvement in the tragedy will complicate U.S. efforts to avoid an expanded conflict in the region.

The Gaza Hospital Blast Risks Widening the War and Fueling Radicalism

Saudi Arabia

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian holds a press conference at the Iranian embassy in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Oct. 14, 2023. 

Iran's recent warnings indicate a growing risk of the conflict expanding beyond its current geographic scope, with Tehran able to use multiple mechanisms to attack Israel and the West.

Iran Threatens to Join the Gaza War, Fueling Fears of an Expanded Conflict

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, U.S.: Washington Agrees With Israel's Goal of Removing Hamas From Rafah

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Escalates Retaliatory Strikes With Advanced Drones

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Thwarts Israeli Cross-Border Reconnaissance Operation

Lebanon: Murder of Lebanese Forces Party Official Heightens Sectarian Tensions

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Deadly Rocket Barrage After Lethal Israeli Strike

France, Israel, Lebanon: Lebanon Replies to French Proposal for Israel-Hezbollah Truce

Israel: Military Strikes Targets in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley Twice in Two Days

Syria, Israel: Israeli Airstrike in Syria Kills Three

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