Iraq

Lebanon

Syria

Military & Security

At least 300 Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters -- mostly from the Badr Organization and Nujabaa group -- crossed into Syria to back the Syrian government's forces and fight the rebels, in addition to a small number of fighters from Fatemiyoun, Reuters reported Dec. 2. 

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Israel

Hezbollah fired on the Israeli-held disputed border zone in the group's first attack since the start of the ceasefire in what the group called a "defensive and warning response," ABC News reported Dec. 2.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Conducts First Attack Since Start of Ceasefire

Politics

Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah will agree to a 60-day truce that will lead to a permanent cease-fire, multiple media outlets reported on Nov. 25.

Israel, Lebanon: Both Sides Set To Approve Truce Leading to Cease-Fire

Israel's new Defense Minister Israel Katz said the country had "defeated" Lebanon's Hezbollah, in part by assassinating its top leaders like Hassan Nasrallah, in comments made to media on Nov. 10 at a ceremony in which Gideon Saar replaced Katz as foreign minister, NBC News reported the next day.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel's New Defense Minister Pushes for Cease-Fire With 'Defeated' Hezbollah

Iran

The Israel Defense Forces announced it had conducted a ground raid into Syria's Daraa province "in recent months," where it captured an Iranian-linked operative named Ali Soleiman al-Assi, NBC reported on Nov. 3.

MENA: Israel Captures Iranian and Hezbollah Operatives in Syria, Lebanon

Israel's Northern Command said that the military's major objectives in Lebanon had been achieved, with weapons along the border destroyed or removed and infrastructure dismantled in key sectors, JPost and Ynet reported Oct. 29. 

Israel: IDF Signals Major Military Objectives Achieved in Lebanon 

The Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah has announced that Naim Kassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah, will be Hassan Nasrallah's successor following the Sept. 27 Israeli assassination of the former Hezbollah leader, BBC reported Oct. 29.

Lebanon: Hezbollah Selects Naim Kassem as Nasrallah's Successor

Economics

The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force, or FATF, reportedly added Lebanon to its "gray list" of nations that fail to adequately combat illicit financial flows, likely due to concerns over terrorism financing and a lack of judicial independence, Reuters reported on Oct. 25, citing two financial sources.

Lebanon: FATF Reportedly Adds Lebanon to 'Gray List' After International Aid Pledges

Assessments

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment. 

A long war of attrition would likely favor Hezbollah, though Israel could still emerge victorious if it sustains enough domestic and international support for its military campaign in Lebanon.

How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?

Palestinian Territories

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Israeli tanks gather by the Lebanese border on Sept. 30, 2024. 

Israel is trying to seize on the chaos its recent attacks have inflicted on Hezbollah, but no ground operation will firmly and quickly secure southern Lebanon, and could pull Israel into a prolonged and costly campaign.

Assessing Israel's Options for a Ground Invasion in Lebanon

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

A man in Beirut, Lebanon, holds a walkie-talkie after removing its battery on Sept. 18, 2024, during a funeral for people killed when hundreds of paging devices exploded across the country the previous day. 

Few security services are willing and able to replicate Israel's unprecedented assault on Hezbollah's electronics, but many will find ways to tamper with devices for mass surveillance by exploiting complex global supply chains.

Israel's Pager Attack Renews Focus on Supply Chains' Physical Security

Snapshots

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Conducts First Attack Since Start of Ceasefire

Israel, Lebanon: Both Sides Set To Approve Truce Leading to Cease-Fire

Israel, Lebanon: Israel's New Defense Minister Pushes for Cease-Fire With 'Defeated' Hezbollah

MENA: Israel Captures Iranian and Hezbollah Operatives in Syria, Lebanon

Israel: IDF Signals Major Military Objectives Achieved in Lebanon

Lebanon: Hezbollah Selects Naim Kassem as Nasrallah's Successor

Lebanon: FATF Reportedly Adds Lebanon to 'Gray List' After International Aid Pledges

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