Israel

Lebanon

Yemen

Military & Security

Around 3:10 a.m. local time, a Houthi "Yafa" drone, which Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed was "capable of bypassing interceptor systems and being unable to be detected by radars" exploded in the air on Ben Yehuda Street on the corner of Shalom Aleichem in central Tel Aviv, Israel, killing one bystander and injuring at least 10 more, The Jerusalem Post reported on July 19.

Israel: Houthi-Launched Drone Targets Tel Aviv, Killing One, Injuring at Least 10

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

An Israeli airstrike on a reported gathering of Hamas commanders and fighters killed scores of people in Gaza's southern city of Khan Younis on July 13, The Times of Israel reported on July 15.

Israel, Gaza: Airstrike Targets Hamas Leaders in Khan Younis

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched its largest attack against Israel on July 4 in response to the Israeli killing of a prominent regional commander, Reuters reported the same day.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Largest Barrage Yet

Israel's security Cabinet sent a new delegation to Doha, Qatar, to resume cease-fire negotiations with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group reportedly weakened its demand for an immediate and lasting path to ending the war in Gaza, The Times of Israel reported on July 4. 

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Negotiations Resume After Hamas Weakens Key Demand

United States

Kuwait

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

A number of countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Kuwait and Switzerland, urged their citizens to leave Lebanon amid the risk of a broader escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, The National UAE reported on June 27.

Lebanon: Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Lebanon, U.S. Prepares Evacuation Plan

In an interview, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza was moving to a less "intense phase," which would free up forces for war with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in the north, BBC reported on June 24.

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon: Israel Shifts Its Gaze From Gaza to Lebanon

Cyprus

In a televised address, Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel with a war without any redlines should one be "imposed" on them, Reuters reported on June 19. 

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Chief Threatens Israel, Warns Cyprus, as Tensions Soar 

Lebanon's political and militant group Hezbollah fired around 150 rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for Israel's overnight killing of Taleb Sami Abdullah, also known as Abu Taleb, the most senior Hezbollah commander killed since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, The New York Times reported on June 12.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Barrage in Northern Israel After Death of Senior Commander

Media

Podcasts

What are the immediate implications of likely conflict scenarios?

Essential Geopolitics: Israel's and Hezbollah's Incentives and Constraints

Assessments

Iran

An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon would likely see Iran's regional proxies provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, while a broader Israeli campaign would raise the risk of a regional war. 

Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

A smoke plume billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 23, 2024. 

While both sides still ultimately desire a negotiated solution, Israel and Hezbollah are on an escalatory path that could expand their conflict across southern Lebanon, raising the risk of a full-on war that could eventually draw in the U.S. and Iran.

Recent Hezbollah-Israel Escalations Raise the Specter of Another Major War

Iraq

Jordan

Syria

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

As the Gaza conflict winds down, both sides will likely eventually seek a diplomatic resolution. But their expanding tit-for-tat exchanges nonetheless risk triggering a wider war.

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Emergency and security personnel search rubble at the site of an April 1, 2024, strike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria's capital of Damascus. Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran's Response to Israel's Audacious Damascus Strike Will Not Deter Escalation

Egypt

A ship transits the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea on Jan. 10, 2024, in Ismailia, Egypt.

Economics

Compared with crisis-ridden Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan's access to IMF loans will enable them to better weather the tourism and business disruptions brought on by the nearby Hamas-Israel conflict.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon's Economies? 

An Israeli artillery unit fires during a military drill Nov. 2, 2023, in the Golan Heights near the border with Lebanon. While a full-scale invasion of Lebanon is unlikely, in the coming weeks Israel will consider escalatory measures that involve stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war for Israel.

Israel will consider -- though it will not prefer the option of -- stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war.

What a War With Hezbollah Could Mean for Israel

Qatar

Turkey

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in southern Lebanon from Israeli bombardment along the two countries' border on Dec. 10, 2023. 

Without a sufficient buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Hamas and other militants will continue to harass northern Israel, which over time will raise the risk of a major Israeli retaliation that could spur a new conflict with Iran's Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.

Border Clashes Risk Bringing Israel's War Against Hamas to Lebanon -- And Iran

A picture taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip on Dec. 4, 2023, shows smoke lingering over the Palestinian territory following Israeli bombardment amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas.

Israel's forthcoming military operations in southern Gaza signal that the war is reaching its final stages, though problems in the Gaza Strip are far from over.

The Israel-Hamas War's Final Phase?

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel: Houthi-Launched Drone Targets Tel Aviv, Killing One, Injuring at Least 10

Israel, Gaza: Airstrike Targets Hamas Leaders in Khan Younis

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Largest Barrage Yet

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Negotiations Resume After Hamas Weakens Key Demand

Lebanon: Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Lebanon, U.S. Prepares Evacuation Plan

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon: Israel Shifts Its Gaze From Gaza to Lebanon

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Chief Threatens Israel, Warns Cyprus, as Tensions Soar

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Launches Barrage in Northern Israel After Death of Senior Commander

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