United States

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was designating three chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, naming the chapters in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, the New York Post reported on Jan. 13.

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

Israel

The Lebanese Armed Forces announced the completion of the first phase of its plan to disarm non-state armed groups south of the Litani River, namely Hezbollah, AP reported on Jan. 8.

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

Iran

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israel will fully deploy the Iron Beam laser air defense systems on Dec. 30, the Jerusalem Post reported Dec. 1.

Israel: Iron Beam Laser Air Defense System To Be Deployed By Year's End

Cyprus

Energy

Lebanon and Cyprus agreed to a final maritime demarcation agreement, nearly two decades after an initial deal determined maritime zones in 2007, Reuters reported Nov. 26.

Lebanon, Cyprus: Maritime Demarcation Agreement Reached

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared Beirut was ready to engage diplomatically with Israel, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 20.

Lebanon, Israel: Lebanon's Prime Minister Reiterates Willingness To Negotiate With Israel

Saudi Arabia

A Saudi official announced that the kingdom would increase economic trade with Lebanon because Lebanese authorities had successfully cracked down on its drug trade, especially of methamphetamines and Captagon, Reuters reported on Nov. 13.

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Saudi Arabia To Increase Trade With Lebanon

The U.S. Trump administration has reportedly urged Israel to scale back "non-urgent" military operations in Lebanon to support the Lebanese government's move to begin disarming the political and militant group Hezbollah, Axios reported on Aug. 21.

Lebanon: U.S Asks Israel To Scale Down Attacks, Lebanon Starts Disarming Palestinian Camps

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beirut, marking his first trip to Lebanon since 2017, to discuss disarming Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon with President Joseph Aoun, France 24 reported on May 21. 

Lebanon: Palestinian President in Beirut To Discuss Disarming Palestinian Refugee Camps

Assessments

Iraq

Yemen

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

U.S.-Iran Relations

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Venezuela

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

China

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Europe

Bulgaria

Ukraine

Russia

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Snapshots

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Tayr Debba on Nov. 6, 2025. 

Despite Lebanon's diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions with Israel, stalled progress on Hezbollah's disarmament portends intensified Israeli airstrikes that would risk collapsing the Lebanese government and even triggering another war.

The Growing Risk of a New Hezbollah-Israel War

Columns

On Security

Kenya

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

United Arab Emirates

An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.

The ceasefire will allow Israel to redirect resources away from Gaza toward other regional threats, particularly Iran, while temporarily easing diplomatic tensions with Egypt and the UAE.

The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire

On Geopolitics

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Uruguay

Singapore

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Mercosur is increasingly opening its markets in pursuit of free trade agreements with partners around the world, particularly as U.S. protectionism shifts global trade dynamics.

The Geopolitics of Trade: What Changing Trade Dynamics Mean for Mercosur

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem speaks from a stage surrounded by flags in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on July 6, 2025. 

Lebanon's new push to disarm Hezbollah will prove challenging amid U.S. pressure, Israel's military assertiveness and Hezbollah's hardening stance, potentially leading to government instability and increased violence.

Can Lebanon Navigate the Minefield of Disarming Hezbollah?

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

Lebanon: Army Announces End of First Phase of Disarmament Plan

Israel: Iron Beam Laser Air Defense System To Be Deployed By Year's End

Lebanon, Cyprus: Maritime Demarcation Agreement Reached

Lebanon, Israel: Lebanon's Prime Minister Reiterates Willingness To Negotiate With Israel

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Saudi Arabia To Increase Trade With Lebanon

Lebanon: U.S Asks Israel To Scale Down Attacks, Lebanon Starts Disarming Palestinian Camps

Lebanon: Palestinian President in Beirut To Discuss Disarming Palestinian Refugee Camps

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support