United States

Israel

Qatar

Syria

Economics

Politics

Qatar will provide $29 million a month to Syria to help pay civil servant salaries for at least the next three months, Reuters reported on May 7, citing Syria's finance minister.

Syria: Qatar Gains U.S. Sanctions Exemptions To Pay Syrian Civil Servant Salaries

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Military & Security

In drills that ended on April 11, the Israeli air force confirmed that it flew alongside Qatar's air force for the first time at the annual Iniochos exercise held in Greece, The Times of Israel reported the same day.

Israel, Qatar: Military Cooperation Signals Improved Relations, but Normalization Remains Unlikely

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

United Arab Emirates

Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat said that Turkey would try to negotiate the 10% tariffs imposed on the country with the U.S. Department of Commerce and Trade and would attend the Turkish-American Conference in D.C. in May, Reuters reported April 4.

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

Iran

The United States is "seriously" considering Iran's proposal for indirect nuclear talks through Omani intermediaries, Axios reported on April 2, citing two U.S. officials. 

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks 

The U.S. State Department approved an initial sale of eight MQ-9B Predator drones to Qatar for $2 billion, AP reported on March 27.

U.S., Qatar: U.S. Starts Approval Process for MQ-9B Drone Sale to Qatar

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda met in Doha, Qatar, for the first time since the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group captured Congo's eastern cities of Goma and Bukavu earlier this year, a statement by Qatar’s foreign ministry read on March 18. 

Rwanda, Congo: Presidential Meeting in Qatar Bodes Well for Peace Talks

Energy

Qatar will supply gas to Syria's southern Deir Ali power plant via the Arab Gas Pipeline with U.S. approval, according to a U.S. official, Reuters reported on March 13. 

Syria: Qatar To Start Gas Transfers as Israel Supplies Druze With Food, Interim President Signs Constitution

India

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Following Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani's Feb. 17-18 visit to India, the two countries released a joint statement in which Qatar pledged to invest $10 billion across a range of Indian sectors, including infrastructure, technology and manufacturing, Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

India, Qatar: Qatar Pledges to Invest $10B in India

Assessments

Somalia

Egypt

Europe

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

Iraq

Lebanon

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds a press conference in Doha on Jan. 15, 2025, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Despite Qatar's success in getting Hamas to accept a ceasefire with Israel, Trump will remain critical of Doha's support for Islamist movements in the region.

For Qatar, the Gaza Ceasefire Will Ease U.S. Pressure -- For Now

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Jordan

Tunisia

Yemen

China

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Moldova

The first day of early voting in the Nov. 5 U.S. election Oct. 21, 2024, in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. voters will select a new president, 435 representatives, 34 senators, and any number of state and municipal officials Nov. 5.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: America Votes, Qatar's Constitutional Referendum

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Botswana

Comoros

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Seychelles

South Africa

Eswatini

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Vietnam

France

Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

Morocco

Israeli soldiers guard a barrier, silhouetted against afternoon sun.

As Gaza moves closer to a post-war reality, political limitations in Israel and competing interests abroad muddy the waters of the region's future governance.

For Israel, the Challenge of Gaza's Future Governance Deepens

Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 13, 2023. 

As Hamas loses control of Gaza, Qatar's political incentives for hosting the group's political leaders will decrease, which will likely see Doha align its Palestine policies with the other GCC members.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Ties to Hamas?

Qatar occupies the Qatar Peninsula, a thumb of land jutting into the middle of the Persian Gulf. It has one land border with Saudi Arabia, but shares waters with Bahrain, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It has no surface rivers or lakes, and its water supply is buried beneath the sandy desert that is practically the country’s only topographical feature. It lacks forests and, prior to the modern era, could not develop an indigenous agricultural sector.    This makes the country uniquely dependent on the outside world for survival. Qatar possesses proven 885.3 trillion feet of natural gas reserves just beneath the waves of the Gulf in a field it shares with Iran, and it makes Qatar the third-largest holder of light natural gas in the world and the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since it began exporting LNG, Qatar has become the richest country on Earth per capita. The exports pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz or are sent through an undersea pipeline to the United Arab Emirates.     After Qatar ceased being a British protectorate in 1971, its royal family declined an offer to join the federation of the United Arab Emirates and chose to chart an independent course. Qatar joined the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional bloc, in 1981, and although it was officially neutral in the Iran-Iraq War, Qatar joined the coalition to evict Iraq from Kuwait in 1991. In 1996, Qatar began hosting U.S. troops at its Al Udeid air base and opened the offices of the state-sponsored Al Jazeera media outlet. In 2010, it was awarded the rights to the 2022 World Cup.    Its geopolitical position makes Qatar uniquely reliant on open trade for prosperity and outside powers for security. It must have reliable trade routes to export its LNG, and it requires outside sponsors to prevent Saudi Arabia or Iran from gaining too much influence over it. For now, it relies on the United States to provide both. That alliance allows Qatar to maintain a precarious balance against geographically advantaged neighbors.

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: Qatar Gains U.S. Sanctions Exemptions To Pay Syrian Civil Servant Salaries

Israel, Qatar: Military Cooperation Signals Improved Relations, but Normalization Remains Unlikely

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks

U.S., Qatar: U.S. Starts Approval Process for MQ-9B Drone Sale to Qatar

Rwanda, Congo: Presidential Meeting in Qatar Bodes Well for Peace Talks

Syria: Qatar To Start Gas Transfers as Israel Supplies Druze With Food, Interim President Signs Constitution

India, Qatar: Qatar Pledges to Invest $10B in India

Forecasts

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