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On Geopolitics

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Military & Security

Politics

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Snapshots

United States

Russia

A picture shows the Saudi Embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus on April 13, 2023. 

Assad's refusal to concede power will impede Arab states' recent push to ease his regime's international isolation by fueling concerns among regional and U.S. skeptics. 

The Obstacles to Syria's Normalization

On Security

Ecuador

Mexico

Venezuela

North Korea

Belgium

Netherlands

Seized marijuana bricks are incinerated in Guadalajara, Mexico.

While narco-states exist on a spectrum of severity, they can all have dramatic geopolitical, operational and tactical impacts that raise a wide variety of risks.

What Is a Narco-State, and Why Does It Matter?

Turkey

An aerial view shows destroyed buildings in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, on Feb. 8, 2023, after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit the region in the early hours of Feb. 6, followed by another 7.5-magnitude tremor just after midday.

Economics

If the disaster response is seen as inadequate, Erdogan and his ruling AKP will face an even tougher battle in upcoming elections.

Gauging the Political Fallout From Turkey's Massive Earthquakes

Assessments

Ukraine

A picture taken on Oct. 28, 2022, shows the Russian-controlled port city of Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's escalating strikes on civilians and critical infrastructure will harden Ukraine's resolve to fight and its NATO allies' resolve to help. 

Russia's Scorched-Earth Tactics in Syria Won't Prove as Successful in Ukraine 

If Turkey and Syria continue to move toward normalization, improved bilateral relations will impact conflicts at home and abroad.

Signs Point to Improved Turko-Syrian Relations. What's Next?

Iran

A U.S. Oshkosh M-ATV Mine Resistant Ambush Protected military vehicle patrols near the Syria-Turkey border in a village east of Qamishli in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province on Aug. 21. The village was subject to bombardment the previous week.

An uptick in violence between U.S. and Iran-backed troops in Syria illustrates that the proxy conflict is here to stay.

Deal or No Nuclear Deal, U.S.-Iran Skirmishes in Syria Are Here to Stay

U.S.-Iran Relations

A fighter of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army is seen through the hole of a damaged building in the northern town of Marea, facing the Kurdish-controlled area of Tal Rifaat, on Aug. 2, 2022. 

Increased fighting with U.S.-backed SDF forces could see Ankara launch a major invasion that would not only irk Russia but severely impede U.S. counterterrorism operations.


Turkey Raises the Stakes in Northern Syria

Sub-Saharan Africa

Iraq

Afghanistan

Al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab recruits walk down a street in the Somalian capital of Mogadishu following their graduation in March 2012. 

In the second part of this series, we explore al-Zawahiri's struggles to implement his ''far enemy'' strategy and whether his successor can return al Qaeda to its former prominence.

Al-Zawahiri's Legacy, Part 2: Will the al Qaeda Leader's Vision Outlive Him?

Israel

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) speaks with then-Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (left) in Sochi, Russia, on Oct. 22, 2021.

Moscow's pressure on Israel to reduce support for Kyiv and ease airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria could trigger a diplomatic crisis or accidental military escalation between the two.

Russia and Israel's Row Over Ukraine Risks Bleeding Into Syria

Guidance

Zambia

Italy

Sri Lanka

A protester waves Sri Lanka's national flag outside the presidential palace in Colombo on July 13, 2022. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Sri Lanka Picks a New President, a Russia-Turkey-Iran Summit

Police use tear gas to disperse clashes between locals and migrants in Ankara, Turkey, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Social Issues

Growing anti-refugee sentiment is pushing Ankara to mull a new military operation in Syria that could backfire by sending even more refugees into Turkey.

By Feeding Into Nativist Rhetoric, Turkey’s Government Tempts Fate 

Saudi Arabia

Syrian President Bashar al Assad arrived in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for his first Arab League summit since Syria's civil war began in 2011, the Financial Times reported on May 19.

Syria: Al Assad Attends Arab League Summit Riyadh

The Arab League voted to readmit Syria to the league after a 12-year suspension, AP reported on May 7.

Syria: Arab League Restores Damascus to its Seat

After a meeting in Amman, Jordan, to discuss Syria’s future, a joint statement issued by Arab states said Syria had agreed to curb illicit exports of the amphetamine drug fenethylline, often marketed under the name Captagon, as part of its process to normalize with the region, Reuters reported on May 1.

Syria: Government Agrees to Curb Captagon Trade

Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus, Syria, Al Jazeera reported on April 18.

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Countries Continue to Normalize Ahead of Arab League Summit

Tunisia

Syria's state media said it would reopen its embassy in Tunisia after Tunis appointed a new ambassador to Syria following over 10 years of diplomatic estrangement, AP reported on April 12.

Syria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia: Countries Restore Diplomatic Ties

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

The leader of Palestinian Gaza-based militant group Hamas met with the leader of Lebanon's pro-Palestinian militant and political group Hezbollah in Lebanon, where they pledged to deepen their cooperation, The Jerusalem Post reported on April 9.

Israel: Hamas, Hezbollah Heads Meet After Israel Strikes Syria Over Rocket Fire

Saudi Arabia intends to invite Syria to the Arab League summit in Riyadh on May 19 for the first time since Syria was suspended from the league in 2011 when its civil war broke out, Reuters reported on April 2.

Saudi Arabia, Syria: Arab League Summit Invitation Points to More Signs of Normalization

Russia will host a deputy foreign minister-level meeting between itself, Turkey, Iran and Syria in Moscow on April 3-4, Hurriyet Daily News reported on April 3.

Russia: Turkish, Iranian, Syrian Ministers Meet in Moscow

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

India

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Germany

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Brazil

Burundi

China

Finland

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Libya

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

Japan

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dominican Republic

Laos

Djibouti

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

France

Grenada

Mongolia

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: Al Assad Attends Arab League Summit Riyadh

Syria: Arab League Restores Damascus to its Seat

Syria: Government Agrees to Curb Captagon Trade

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Countries Continue to Normalize Ahead of Arab League Summit

Syria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia: Countries Restore Diplomatic Ties

Israel: Hamas, Hezbollah Heads Meet After Israel Strikes Syria Over Rocket Fire

Saudi Arabia, Syria: Arab League Summit Invitation Points to More Signs of Normalization

Russia: Turkish, Iranian, Syrian Ministers Meet in Moscow

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