Israel

Lebanon

Syria

Economics

Politics

Poverty in Lebanon has tripled to 44% of the population since 2014, leading households to cut back on basic food, medicines and other staples, the World Bank reported on May 23.

Lebanon: World Bank Report Highlights Rising Poverty Amid Political Paralysis

Comoros

Djibouti

Mauritania

Somalia

Sudan

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Arab leaders began to arrive in Manama, Bahrain, on May 15, for the 33rd Arab League summit that will focus on developing a consensus on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, The National reported the next day.

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Iran

Military & Security

Israel struck a building on the outskirts of Damascus, injuring 8 Syrian soldiers on May 2, Reuters reported May 3. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

United States

Iranian-backed Iraqi militants fired five rockets at the Kharab al-Jir U.S. military base in Syria from Zummar, Iraq, Reuters reported on April 21.

Iraq, Syria: Iraqi Militias Carry Out First Attacks on U.S. Forces Since Early February

France

Israel is preparing for an Iranian attack on southern or northern Israel over April 12-13, although an Iranian leader reportedly said Tehran had not made a final decision, The Wall Street Journal reported late on April 11, citing people familiar with the matter. 

Iran, Israel: Iranian Attack on Israel Expected on April 12-13

U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials assessed that an Iranian attack on Israel over Israel's April 1 bombing of Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, was "imminent" and could involve drones and missile strikes on Israeli government and military targets, Bloomberg reported on April 11.

U.S., Israel, Iran: Officials Assess Iranian Attack Over Israeli Strike Is 'Imminent'

A Syrian gang killed a political coordinator from the Maronite Lebanese Forces party, or LF, on April 7 as they tried to steal his car in Lebanon's Jbeil district, and Lebanese authorities have arrested several suspects, including three who drove the car to Syria, Naharnet reported on April 8.

Lebanon: Murder of Lebanese Forces Party Official Heightens Sectarian Tensions

Suspected Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Iranian consulate adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals and 13 other prominent IRGC commanders, Reuters reported on April 1.

Iran, Israel, Syria: Israeli Strikes Destroy Iranian Consulate in Damascus

Assessments

Turkey

Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023. 

The two countries will take steps to restore their diplomatic and economic ties, but competing security imperatives will make full-scale normalization difficult. 

Evaluating the Prospects of Turkey-Syria Normalization

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

U.S.-Iran Relations

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Emergency and security personnel search rubble at the site of an April 1, 2024, strike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria's capital of Damascus. Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran's Response to Israel's Audacious Damascus Strike Will Not Deter Escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian holds a press conference at the Iranian embassy in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Oct. 14, 2023. 

Iran's recent warnings indicate a growing risk of the conflict expanding beyond its current geographic scope, with Tehran able to use multiple mechanisms to attack Israel and the West.

Iran Threatens to Join the Gaza War, Fueling Fears of an Expanded Conflict

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

People protest in the southern Syrian city of Sweida on Sept. 1, 2023, after the government of President Bashar al Assad ended fuel subsidies.

Growing economic distress and frozen reconstruction efforts are threatening the legitimacy of established actors, providing space for extremists to exploit.

Syria's Economic Woes Create New Fractures and Power Struggles

Iran’s foreign minister (right) poses for a picture with his Saudi counterpart on June 17, 2023, in Tehran.

The detentes that have emerged between long-standing rivals have made the region more peaceful, but old wounds could still reopen.

In the Middle East, Shared Interests Are Turning Former Foes Into Friends -- For Now

Columns

On Geopolitics

Middle East and North Africa

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Snapshots

Russia

A picture shows the Saudi Embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus on April 13, 2023. 

Assad's refusal to concede power will impede Arab states' recent push to ease his regime's international isolation by fueling concerns among regional and U.S. skeptics. 

The Obstacles to Syria's Normalization

On Security

Ecuador

Mexico

Venezuela

North Korea

Belgium

Netherlands

Seized marijuana bricks are incinerated in Guadalajara, Mexico.

While narco-states exist on a spectrum of severity, they can all have dramatic geopolitical, operational and tactical impacts that raise a wide variety of risks.

What Is a Narco-State, and Why Does It Matter?

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Lebanon: World Bank Report Highlights Rising Poverty Amid Political Paralysis

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

Iraq, Syria: Iraqi Militias Carry Out First Attacks on U.S. Forces Since Early February

Iran, Israel: Iranian Attack on Israel Expected on April 12-13

U.S., Israel, Iran: Officials Assess Iranian Attack Over Israeli Strike Is 'Imminent'

Lebanon: Murder of Lebanese Forces Party Official Heightens Sectarian Tensions

Iran, Israel, Syria: Israeli Strikes Destroy Iranian Consulate in Damascus

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