India

Military & Security

Politics

The second phase of elections for India's lower house, or Lok Sabha, took place in 88 constituencies and 13 states and union territories, The Economic Times reported on April 26. 

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

China

Philippines

Economics

India delivered the initial batch of BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million agreement signed in 2022, Voice of America reported on April 23. 

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Maldives

Preliminary results of the Maldivian parliamentary elections indicate that the ruling People's National Congress, or PNC, led by President Mohamed Muizzu secured 71 out of 93 seats, Reuters reported on April 22. 

Maldives: Ruling People's National Congress Secures Majority in Parliament

Polls for the first phase of India's general election opened, encompassing 102 constituencies across 21 states and union territories, including Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, AP reported on April 19. 

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

U.S. tech executive Elon Musk is scheduled to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 22 during his visit to India to discuss electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla's plans to enter in the Indian market, Reuters reported on April 17.

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

United States

Cyber

Apple sent threat notifications to users in 92 countries warning individuals that they were possible victims of a "mercenary spyware attack," removing the term "state-sponsored" it had used in previous alerts, Reuters reported on April 11.

Cyberspace: Apple Sends Updated Spyware Notifications, Drops State-Sponsored Term

Energy

Daytime temperatures in India's southern city of Bangalore, Karnataka state, are nearing seasonal record highs of up to 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in recent days amid ongoing water scarcity challenges, NDTV reported on April 7.

India: High Temperatures in Bangalore Exacerbate Water Crisis

South Korea

Taiwan

Chinese government-linked disinformation networks are increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence tools to influence election audiences in Taiwan and the United States, according to a new Microsoft report published on April 4.

Cyberspace: Chinese Influence Operations Escalate Use of AI Tools

Assessments

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Brazil

Colombia

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Members of the Students Federation of India (SFI) protest against the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Chennai, India, on March 12, 2024. 

Social Issues

The implementation of the bill, which makes it easier for some non-Muslims to gain citizenship, will heighten political and religious tensions in the lead-up to India's April-May general ballot.

Ahead of Elections, India Enacts a Controversial Citizenship Law

Japan

Bangladesh

A digital illustration of the Bangladeshi flag.

After weeks of election-related unrest, the situation in Bangladesh has stabilized, which will free the government to focus on securing investment and infrastructure deals with the U.S., India, Japan and China.

As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy

Snapshots

Farmers gather during a protest demanding minimum crop prices, near the Haryana-Punjab state border in the Indian village of Shambhu, located about 200 kilometers north of New Delhi, on Feb. 21, 2024. 

The protests will likely persist for weeks and potentially longer, creating significant disruptions and personal safety risks in and around New Delhi and other areas of northern India, while illustrating challenges to agricultural sector reform.

What To Make of the Renewed Farmers' Protests in India

Somalia

Yemen

A map of the waters off the coast of Somalia. A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

The Implications of Resurging Pirate Attacks off Somalia's Coast

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (center) waves to reporters at the G20 summit venue in New Delhi, India, on Sept. 10, 2023. 

If Modi is re-elected later this year, India's rapid economic development will enable his government to direct financial resources and diplomatic efforts toward managing the country's complex security environment.

How Will India's Economic Growth Support Its Foreign Policy?

Pakistan

An Indian paramilitary trooper stands guard as Hindu devotees pray at the Shankaracharya temple in Srinagar on Jan. 22, 2024. 

As regional elections in Jammu and Kashmir grow near and the risks of protest and terrorist attacks increase, an eventual mass-casualty attack would risk triggering military escalation between India and Pakistan. 

Fresh Elections Could See Risks Reemerge in Jammu and Kashmir

People line up to view a statue of Rama, a Hindu deity, at the newly consecrated Ram Temple on Jan. 23, 2024, in Ayodhya, India. 

The inauguration of the historically charged Hindu temple is a major win for Modi's party, which had defended its construction for decades, and will likely help it secure another term in India's April-May general elections.

In India, the Ram Temple's Consecration Is Set to Boost Modi's Re-Election Bid

Angola

Cabo Verde

Cote d'Ivoire

Nigeria

Europe

France

Russia

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

<p>India is endowed with favorable geographic barriers. Surrounded by oceans on three sides and the formidable Himalayan Mountains to the north, what is now modern India has been free of outside interference for much of its long history. Its large geographic size and population, coupled with weaker peripheral nations on much of its boundaries, have allowed India to become the dominant force in South Asia. Home to the world&rsquo;s second-largest population, India&rsquo;s 1.3 billion people are spread out across the peninsular nation, from the foothills of the Himalayas to the tropical south. India&rsquo;s population core is settled along the Ganges river basin, a densely populated swath of fertile land that extends across the northern Himalayan border. India&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge comes from a lack of strong internal boundaries. Modern-day India struggles to rectify the ambitions of a relatively weak national government that competes with the prerogatives of strong, diverse states &mdash; a legacy of a long history of domestic infighting between various dynasties uninhibited by mountains or other defining geography. A similar lack of defining geography still plagues India&rsquo;s northwest border. Waves of Greek, Persian, and Mongols invaded, culminating in the Mughal Empire, which united much of the subcontinent prior to British conquest. The northwestern border still poses national security risks, due to ongoing disputes with Pakistan. But rising domestic consumption means India is increasingly dependent on imported goods from distant suppliers. Surrounded by water or impassable mountains, New Delhi now faces the additional task of developing naval capabilities to secure its critical supply routes, risking maritime tensions with China in the broader Indo-Pacific basin.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Maldives: Ruling People's National Congress Secures Majority in Parliament

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

Cyberspace: Apple Sends Updated Spyware Notifications, Drops State-Sponsored Term

India: High Temperatures in Bangalore Exacerbate Water Crisis

Cyberspace: Chinese Influence Operations Escalate Use of AI Tools

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