Assessments

Pakistan

A protest May 9, 2023, in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, against the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. The former prime minister's arrest increases nationwide risks of protests, social unrest, travel disruptions, and potential violence, and notably worsens political instability.

Politics

The former prime minister's arrest increases nationwide risks of protests, social unrest, travel disruptions and potential violence, and notably worsens political instability.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan's Arrest Will Worsen Already Heightened Political Instability

Paraguay

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A general view shows a Knesset session in Jerusalem, Israel, on March 20, 2023. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.K. and Paraguay Hold Elections, Israel's Knesset Resumes

Vendors at a market warm themselves around a bonfire in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, during a nationwide power outage on Jan. 23, 2023.

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Structural deficiencies and policy uncertainty could push the Pakistani economy into a recession, exacerbating political instability and security challenges.

Where Is Pakistan's Economic Crisis Headed?

Media

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Learn how the rise of the extremist group Islamic State Khorasan Province is plaguing Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan take part in a protest as they block the main road in Peshawar, Pakistan, a day after the assassination attempt on Khan on Nov. 4, 2022. 

The former prime minister’s criticism of the country’s powerful defense establishment is challenging the very foundation of Pakistani governance. 

Khan's Showdown With the Military Tests Pakistan's Systems of Power

 Learn what is behind Imran Khan's march to Islamabad.

Essential Geopolitics: Inside Pakistan's Political Turmoil

A policeman stands guard beside a container truck near the site of a gun attack against former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in Wazirabad on Nov. 3, 2022.

The shooting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan during his protest march will fuel near-term risks of violence and longer-term political instability in Pakistan, especially following Khan's claims of government involvement.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan's Shooting Could Portend More Violence and Instability

United States

A delegation led by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) meets with a delegation led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 26, 2022.

Washington remains unlikely to substantially increase its economic involvement in the country, despite Islamabad's efforts to expand the countries' security-focused relationship.

After a Rocky Few Years, Pakistan Tries to Mend Ties With the U.S. 

Snapshots

A flooded residential area on Aug. 30, 2022, in Dera Allah Yar town after heavy monsoon rains in Jaffarabad district, Balochistan. Unprecedented flooding and associated losses will worsen Pakistan's economic and political challenges, perhaps making militant activity likelier in some areas.

Social Issues

Unprecedented flooding and associated losses will worsen Pakistan's economic and political challenges, perhaps making militant activity likelier in some areas.

Pakistan's Floods: The Economic, Political and Security Fallout

Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), are seen at a rally in Lahore, Pakistan, on April 21, 2022.

Just months after losing a no-confidence vote, Khan's party is seeing a surge in popularity, which could bode ill for his successor's government and its recently-inked IMF deal.

Is Pakistan's Ousted Prime Minister Making a Comeback? 

Essential Geopolitics thumbnail

Some experts are comparing Pakistan's economic and political situations with those of Sri Lanka before protestors ousted the government.

Essential Geopolitics: Pakistan's Looming Economic and Political Crises

China

Sri Lanka

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a press conference with his Pakistani counterpart (not pictured) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 8, 2017. 

Beijing's hesitance to fully bail out Pakistan, one of its closest partners, bodes ill for the growing number of developing countries seeking debt relief.

Facing Economic Issues at Home, China Scales Back Its Foreign Debt Assistance

A number of leaders from former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have resigned from the party in recent weeks, notably including former human rights minister and senior leader Shireen Mazari, with many citing violence by PTI supporters following Khan's May 9 arrest, Dawn reported on May 24.

Pakistan: PTI Leaders Continue to Leave Party While Others Remain Detained

Iran

Leaders from Pakistan and Iran inaugurated a border market in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province, as well as an electricity transmission line that will provide Iranian electricity to some of Pakistan's rural areas, AP reported on May 18.

Pakistan, Iran: Inauguration of Border Market, Electricity Transmission Line Signals Warming Relations

Thousands of government supporters staged a sit-in outside Pakistan's Supreme Court in the capital of Islamabad to protest the court's May 11 ruling that former Prime Minister Imran Khan's May 9 arrest was unlawful and merited his immediate release, AP reported on May 15.

Pakistan: Government Supporters Conduct Sit-In to Protest Supreme Court's Release of Khan

The Islamabad High Court granted Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan protective bail for legal cases registered against him across the country until May 15, Dawn reported on May 12.

Pakistan: Islamabad High Court Grants Khan Protective Bail

Pakistan's Supreme Court deemed "[t]he manner of execution" of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's arrest warrant "invalid and unlawful" and ordered his release, Dawn reported on May 11.

Pakistan: Supreme Court Deems Khan's Arrest Unlawful, Orders His Release

The Afghan Taliban and Pakistan agreed on May 7 to cooperate on issues of mutual concern, including by increasing trade and reducing tensions along their border, AP reported the next day.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Seek to Boost Trade, Improve Relations

Foreign ministers from India and Pakistan traded accusations and reiterated long-standing grievances at separate press conferences following a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in India's southwestern state of Goa, Reuters reported on May 5.

India, Pakistan: Accusatory Statements Suggest Thaw in Bilateral Relations Is Unlikely

Pakistan's Parliament on April 27 affirmed its "full confidence" in Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the chair of the Pakistan People's Party (which is part of the ruling coalition), put forth an unscheduled resolution, Dawn reported on April 28.

Pakistan: Parliament Affirms Confidence in Prime Minister

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Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: PTI Leaders Continue to Leave Party While Others Remain Detained

Pakistan, Iran: Inauguration of Border Market, Electricity Transmission Line Signals Warming Relations

Pakistan: Government Supporters Conduct Sit-In to Protest Supreme Court's Release of Khan

Pakistan: Islamabad High Court Grants Khan Protective Bail

Pakistan: Supreme Court Deems Khan's Arrest Unlawful, Orders His Release

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Seek to Boost Trade, Improve Relations

India, Pakistan: Accusatory Statements Suggest Thaw in Bilateral Relations Is Unlikely

Pakistan: Parliament Affirms Confidence in Prime Minister

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