India

Pakistan

Military & Security

Politics

The Indian and Pakistani armies exchanged fire across the Line of Control, which divides the disputed Kashmir region between India and Pakistan, with the Indian side alleging that Pakistan initiated the shooting, though there were no casualties and the exact location of the clash remains unclear, AP reported on April 25.

Pakistan, India: Troops Exchange Gunfire in Kashmir

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and ordered Pakistani nationals within its territory to leave the country by April 27, following the April 22 attack by The Resistance Front that killed at least 26 people in the locality of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir province, The Times of India reported on April 24.

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

Police updated the casualty figures of the April 22 suspected militant attack at Baisaran meadow near the Kashmiri resort town of Pahalgam, raising the death toll to at least 26, with another 17 people wounded, making it one of the worst attacks on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Reuters reported on April 23.

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

Bangladesh

Pakistan and Bangladesh held their first foreign secretary-level talks in 15 years in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Geo News reported on April 17.

Pakistan, Bangladesh: Foreign Secretaries Meet for First Time in 15 Years

United States

Sri Lanka

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs, including a 37% tariff on Bangladesh, a 30% tariff on Pakistan, and a 44% tariff on Sri Lanka, Reuters reported on April 3.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

International Monetary Fund staff and Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of Pakistan's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Reuters reported March 25.

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement

Afghanistan

Pakistani security forces near the border with Afganistan arrested Mohammad Sharifullah, a top Islamic State Khorasan Province commander and alleged plotter of the deadly 2021 bombing at Afghanistan's Kabul airport, after a tipoff from the CIA, Dawn reported on March 5. 

Pakistan, U.S.: Pakistan Arrests Plotter of Kabul Airport Bombing After U.S. Tipoff

According to Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, an International Monetary Fund mission will visit Pakistan the week of March 3 for discussions ahead of the first review of the $7 billion bailout program, which is scheduled for March, Reuters reported on Feb. 26.

Pakistan: IMF Mission To Visit Ahead of First Bailout Review

Assessments

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Global Trade

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

China

Bangladeshi soldiers stand guard in Dhaka on July 27, 2024.

Since assuming power in August, Bangladesh's interim government has pursued closer ties with Pakistan and China, deepening India's concerns about regional stability and its declining influence over Dhaka.

Bangladesh's More Assertive Foreign Policy Puts India on Edge

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

South Asia's rising demand for water resources will exacerbate disputes over key waterways, particularly the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

The Geopolitics of Water: Regional Rivals Compete for South Asia's Rivers

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

Yemen

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) arrive for a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.

While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will maintain many of the outgoing Biden administration's overarching policies toward South Asia, bilateral relationships will grow increasingly transactional.

What Trump's Second Term Means for South Asia

Pakistan's president administers the oath of office to Justice Yahya Afridi as Afridi is sworn in as chief justice in Islamabad on Oct. 26, 2024.

The reform will allow the government to appoint Supreme Court justices who support its agenda, weakening judicial independence while likely fueling political tensions and protests.

The Implications of Pakistan's Controversial Judicial Reform

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. The Security Cabinet of Israel has yet to decide exactly how to retaliate against Iran for its Oct. 1 missile barrage against the country, but Israel clearly is seeking U.S. approval for an operation that might yet pull the U.S. back into active defense.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, India: Troops Exchange Gunfire in Kashmir

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

Pakistan, Bangladesh: Foreign Secretaries Meet for First Time in 15 Years

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement

Pakistan, U.S.: Pakistan Arrests Plotter of Kabul Airport Bombing After U.S. Tipoff

Pakistan: IMF Mission To Visit Ahead of First Bailout Review

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