Kazakhstan

Pakistan

Politics

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a joint declaration establishing a strategic partnership during Tokayev's state visit to Islamabad, Akorda reported Feb. 4.

Kazakhstan, Pakistan: Strategic Partnership Signals Deeper Connectivity Push

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

India

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a brief meeting in New Delhi, where the two signed a 10-year liquefied natural gas energy supply agreement under which the United Arab Emirates will supply India with some $3 billion worth of LNG over 10 years, for a total of 0.5 million metric tons of LNG a year, AP reported on Jan. 19.

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Afghanistan

Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce is reviewing waiver requests to allow Afghan importers to reexport over 6,500 containers currently stranded at two ports in Karachi, Pakistan, and incurring demurrage fees due to the protracted closure of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, Dawn reported on Jan. 14. 

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

China

China and Pakistan released a joint statement on Jan. 5 reaffirming their relations as "All-weather Strategic Cooperative Partners," with Beijing praising "the comprehensive measures" Pakistan has taken to counter terrorism and protect Chinese interests.

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

A number of leaders within former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, have expressed frustration with Khan's refusal to negotiate with the government and his insistence that the party continue to protest and foment unrest amid its years-long standoff with authorities, Dawn reported on Dec. 26.

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

The International Monetary Fund's executive board approved Pakistan's latest loan review, releasing roughly $1.2 billion and helping keep Pakistan's IMF program on track, Reuters reported on Dec. 9.

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Funding Under Pakistan's Second Review

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan formally notified partners in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) consortium of its intention to acquire an up to 30% stake in the long-delayed gas pipeline project, Interfax reported Nov. 25.

Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan: Astana Seeks 30% Stake in TAPI Pipeline Consortium

Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the group would provide a "necessary response" at the "appropriate time" after accusing Pakistan of striking Khost province and executing raids in Kunar and Paktika provinces in Afghanistan around midnight Nov. 25, actions Mujahid claimed killed at least nine civilians and wounded four others, Ariana News reported Nov. 25.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Tensions Resurge After Afghan Taliban Accuses Pakistan of Retaliatory Strikes

Snapshots

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Chile

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

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On Geopolitics

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

The Geopolitics of Trade

Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

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Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan, Pakistan: Strategic Partnership Signals Deeper Connectivity Push

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Funding Under Pakistan's Second Review

Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan: Astana Seeks 30% Stake in TAPI Pipeline Consortium

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Tensions Resurge After Afghan Taliban Accuses Pakistan of Retaliatory Strikes

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