Afghanistan

Pakistan

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A local official in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar said Pakistan's military had shelled parts of the province after the expiration overnight March 23 of Pakistan's pause on military operations surrounding the Eid al-Fitr holiday, AP reported on March 25.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Reports Conflict on Renewed Violence Following Ceasefire's Expiration

United States

Economics

The Afghan Taliban released Dennis Coyle, a U.S. academic the group had detained since January 2025 for unspecified reasons, The New York Times reported on March 24. 

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Iran

Israel

U.S.-Iran Relations

Several unnamed Israeli officials have indicated that a potential agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely, although Pakistan offered to host negotiations as early as late in the week of March 23 to de-escalate the conflict, Reuters reported on March 24. 

U.S., Iran: Israeli Officials Say U.S.-Iran Deal Remains Unlikely, but Pakistan Offers To Host Talks

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Pakistan's information minister announced on March 18 a pause on strikes in Afghanistan beginning midnight the same day and extending through midnight on March 23, AP reported on March 18.

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

Unnamed sources at Afghanistan's forensic medicine department in Kabul said overnight Pakistani airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation center in the capital, killing more than 100 people, BBC reported on March 17.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

China

The Afghan Taliban said Pakistan targeted civilian homes and private airline Kam Air's fuel depots, killing at least six civilians and wounding more than a dozen others, AP reported on March 13.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistan's Strikes in Afghanistan Renew Challenge to Mediation Efforts

The U.S. Department of State notified Congress the week of March 9 of its intent to close the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, claiming it would save $7.5 million a year and have limited impact on the United States' diplomatic influence in Pakistan, AP reported on March 11. 

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

Three unnamed Pakistani officials said Chinese mediation in recent weeks has helped ease cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with China's special envoy to Afghanistan shuttling between the warring countries for talks and China's President Xi Jinping recording a message in late February calling for the parties to halt their skirmishes, Reuters reported on March 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

Assessments

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Energy

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Snapshots

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

India

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Chile

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Reports Conflict on Renewed Violence Following Ceasefire's Expiration

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

U.S., Iran: Israeli Officials Say U.S.-Iran Deal Remains Unlikely, but Pakistan Offers To Host Talks

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Announces Days-Long Pause on Strikes Following Foreign Pressure

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistani Strike Hits Kabul Rehab Facility, Reportedly Killing Hundreds

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Pakistan's Strikes in Afghanistan Renew Challenge to Mediation Efforts

U.S., Pakistan: U.S. To Close Consulate in Peshawar, Purportedly To Cut Costs

Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting

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