South Sudan

Central African Republic

Chad

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

Politics

Yasir al-Atta, the deputy commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, said Chad’s N’Djamena and Amdjarass airports were "legitimate military targets" and vowed to retaliate against the “corrupt centres of influence” in South Sudan, Reuters reported on March 24.

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan 

Burkina Faso

Eritrea

Mali

Somalia

Zimbabwe

Russia

Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Moscow had started shipments of free grain totalling up to 200,000 tons and destined for six African countries, Reuters reported on Nov. 17.

Sub-Saharan Africa: First Shipment of Russian Grain En Route to Burkina Faso and Somalia

Niger

Libya

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, posted a video address on his Telegram channel on Aug. 21, his first since the short-lived Wagner mutiny in June, Reuters reported the next day.

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

Voters in the Central African Republic passed a July 29 constitutional referendum abolishing term limits and extending the presidential mandate from five to seven years, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 7.

Central African Republic: Country Passes Constitutional Referendum Abolishing Term Limits

Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera said his government will hold a constitutional referendum on July 15-28 to alter the constitution and remove term limits, Reuters reported on May 30.

Central African Republic: President Plans Constitutional Referendum to Cancel Term Limits

The Central African Republic (CAR) government threatened to seek reprisals after claiming an aircraft flew across the northern border from a neighboring country the night of Nov. 27-28 and bombed CAR troops and Russian paramilitary partners in the town of Bossangoa, Agence France-Presse reported Nov. 28.

Central African Republic: Government Claims Unnamed Border Nation Bombed Troops, Russian Partners

Economics

Lawmakers from the Central African Republic unanimously passed a law legalizing cryptocurrencies and made bitcoin a legal tender, Radio France International reported April 27.

Central African Republic: Government Adopts Bitcoin as Legal Currency

France

Security

On Feb. 21, Central African Republic security forces arrested four French soldiers at Bangui M'Poko International Airport shortly after the soldiers completed a protection detail assignment guarding the chief of staff of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Central Africa (MINUSCA), Voice of America reported Feb. 22.

Central African Republic: Arrest of French Soldiers Will Worsen Relations With the West

Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mozambique

Rwanda

A Rwandan soldier walks in front of a burned truck near Palma in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region on Sept. 22, 2021. 

Rwanda’s expanding troop deployments in other African countries seek to enhance its regional political and economic influence, but entail risks that could harm its operations and reputation.

Rwanda's Growing Military Influence in Africa: Opportunities and Risks

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Middle East and North Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burundi

Ethiopia

Nigeria

South Africa

Tanzania

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Republic of the Congo

During the final day of the African tour that also included visits to Cameroon and Benin, French President Emmanuel Macron (left) waves to a crowd through the roof of a car in Bissau with Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The French president and Russian foreign minister’s separate trips to Central African countries highlight Paris and Moscow's growing interest in the region, with both leaders pledging increased security and investments.

Making Sense of France and Russia’s High-Level Visits to Africa

Guidance

Ecuador

China

South Korea

Vietnam

A worker hangs traditional red lanterns for the upcoming Spring Festival on Feb. 3, 2021, in Beijing.

COVID-19

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Lunar New Year and an African Union Summit

United States

Western efforts in the Sahel, like the U.N. mission in Mali, are unlikely to wane anytime soon, but neither are they likely to expand in the face of growing militancy. This will open opportunities for Russia to expand its footprint in the Sahel.

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Governments in the militant-plagued region will seek to maximize Moscow's support while maintaining ties with their Western allies.

Western Reluctance in the Sahel Opens Doors for Russia

A U.N. official has employed the word genocide to shore up international attention on a largely forgotten crisis.

Central African Republic: The Specter of Genocide Is Raised

Angola

Namibia

The influential region may not be able to hold onto the modest gains it has made for much longer.

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Over the past half-century or so, South Africa has earned the reputation as the economic powerhouse of Africa. While most of the continent has struggled to develop effective institutions and competitive industries, South Africa's unique geographic and historical advantages have enabled its economy to outshine the rest. Along with a handful of its neighbors that boast similar advantages, South Africa has leveraged its economic success to expand its reach north, gaining influence over large swaths of the continent. Today, geography continues to underpin South Africa's strength -- as well as its ambitions -- in spite of its many challenges ahead.

Southern Africa: A Sputtering Powerhouse

On the Road

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland

Lebanon

Turkey

India

The Beau-Rivage Palace hotel in Lausanne, Switzerland. The politically neutral space hotels provide can make them ideal spaces for leaders to convene for consultation in times of crisis.

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Any place elite barons of authority convene can, at least temporarily, join the ranks of the world's important spaces. In countries where power is contested, a hotel's neutral space might be the only option for political or military rivals to engage in talks or to trade information, though this can also attract intelligence agency surveillance.

The Temporary Halls of Power

Media

Graphics

What Holds the Central African Republic Back

The country's remote location has impeded its development and the government's efforts to exert its authority.

The Central African Republic is a landlocked country in the heart of Central Africa. The country shares borders with Chad to the north, Sudan to the northeast, South Sudan to the east, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo to the south and Cameroon to the west.    The Central African Republic's prospects for economic growth are severely limited by its geographical location, which has increased the costs of imports and exports while hampering connectivity. Unsurprisingly, the country is one of the world's least stable nations. Moreover, the government in Bangui, the country’s capital, remains woefully unable to assert its power beyond its immediate environs. In fact, large swaths of the country remain effectively outside the government’s control, as militant groups and gangs have proliferated in many areas. The assistance of outside powers and international organizations have done little to enhance Bangui’s authority in recent years.    A former French colony, the Central African Republic has struggled to achieve stability since independence. Instead, periodic conflagrations have rocked the country, occasionally precipitating French military intervention, such as in 2013.     An additional challenge for leaders in Bangui is the near continuous meddling of their regional neighbors, which have sought to exploit the Central African Republic's security vacuum to grab some of the country's vast mineral resources. At present, the country’s long-term prospects appear bleak due to its deep structural deficiencies.

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan

Sub-Saharan Africa: First Shipment of Russian Grain En Route to Burkina Faso and Somalia

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

Central African Republic: Country Passes Constitutional Referendum Abolishing Term Limits

Central African Republic: President Plans Constitutional Referendum to Cancel Term Limits

Central African Republic: Government Claims Unnamed Border Nation Bombed Troops, Russian Partners

Central African Republic: Government Adopts Bitcoin as Legal Currency

Central African Republic: Arrest of French Soldiers Will Worsen Relations With the West

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