Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Military & Security

On the night of Aug. 24-25, unidentified armed men from neighboring Burkina Faso attacked the Ivorian border town of Difita in Tehini department, marking the first deadly assault in Cote d'Ivoire linked to jihadist activity since 2021, Jeune Afrique reported on Aug. 26. 

Cote d'Ivoire: Four Killed and One Missing in Attack Near Burkinabe Border

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The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced plans to activate a 260,000-strong counterterrorism force to address insecurity in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel, Daily Trust reported on Aug. 26.

West Africa: Regional Bloc To Mobilize Counterterrorism Force

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The U.S. State Department issued a memo giving 36 countries 60 days to meet new department requirements or be added to a travel ban implemented on June 9, The Washington Post reported on June 14.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

Leading Ivorian opposition figures, including leader of the Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire (PDCI) Tidjane Thiam and former president Laurent Gbagbo, were not included in the final version of Cote d'Ivoire's electoral roll, effectively barring them from running in the country's October presidential election, Radio France Internationale reported June 4.

Cote d'Ivoire: Leading Opposition Figures Barred From Final Electoral Roll 

The United States and Cote d'Ivoire reached an agreement in principle permitting the United States to operate drones from the Bouake air base, Jeune Afrique reported on May 14. 

Cote d'Ivoire: Government Reportedly Reaches Agreement in Principle With U.S. Over Drone Access  

An Ivorian court effectively barred the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire, or PDCI, Tidjane Thiam, from running in the country's Oct. 25 presidential election after ruling that he had lost his Ivorian nationality, Reuters reported on April 22.

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

In an interview with French news outlet Jeune Afrique published April 9, President of Cote d'Ivoire's Conference of Catholic Bishops Marcellin Yao Kouadio questioned the independence of the country's electoral commission and warned that a crisis could occur surrounding the organization of presidential elections that are currently slated for Oct. 25.

Cote d'Ivoire: Catholic Church Questions Electoral Commission Independence Ahead of Presidential Elections 

Chad

Russia

Russia's Africa Corps began deploying transmission equipment and radars at the Faya-Largeau base in northern Chad in late January, while observers have noted several individuals thought to be Africa Corps emissaries in the capital, N'Djamena, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 11.

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

Snapshots

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

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France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Assessments

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Middle East and North Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Europe

India

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Eritrea

Rwanda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Burundi

Mozambique

South Africa

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The unexpected death ahead of the October vote risks dashing hopes for the country's first peaceful democratic transition of power by reigniting long-held political feuds.

In Ivory Coast, a Presidential Candidate's Death Risks Ending in Violence

SITUATION REPORTS

Cote d'Ivoire: Four Killed and One Missing in Attack Near Burkinabe Border

West Africa: Regional Bloc To Mobilize Counterterrorism Force

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

Cote d'Ivoire: Leading Opposition Figures Barred From Final Electoral Roll

Cote d'Ivoire: Government Reportedly Reaches Agreement in Principle With U.S. Over Drone Access

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

Cote d'Ivoire: Catholic Church Questions Electoral Commission Independence Ahead of Presidential Elections

Africa: Russia Expands Footprint in Chad, Upgrades Airbase in Southern Libya

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