Ethiopia

Military & Security

Politics

The government of Ethiopia's northern Amhara region accused the Tigray region's interim administration of disregarding the November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement and urged it to "vacate the areas it occupied recently" in southern Tigray, Addis Standard reported on April 17.

Ethiopia: Amhara-Tigray Tensions Rise Following Clashes in Southern Tigray 

Kenya

Somalia

Economics

Kenya proposed a regional maritime treaty that will govern how landlocked countries can secure commercial port access with a view of de-escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, Reuters reported on April 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

Unknown actors killed Bate Urgessa, a political officer of Ethiopia's opposition Oromo Liberation Front party, or OLF, on April 9 in the town Meki, Oromia, Addis Standard reported April 10.

Ethiopia: Leading Oromo Liberation Front Figure Killed

United States

The U.S. Embassy in Kenya received intelligence concerning potential threats to several locations in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, notably Aden Adde International Airport, Garowe Online reported on April 9.

Somalia: Government on High Alert After U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks in Capital

Somalia expelled Ethiopian Ambassador Muktar Mohamed Ware and demanded the closure of Ethiopia's consulate offices in Hargeisa, which is the capital of Somalia's breakaway Somaliland region, and in Somalia's autonomous Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on April 4. 

Somalia: Federal Government Expels Ethiopian Ambassador

The Paris Club will extend its deadline for the Ethiopian government to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or face the annulment of its debt standstill agreement from March 31 to June, Reuters reported April 3. 

Ethiopia: Paris Club to Extend Deadline for IMF Deal to June

Ghana

Zambia

Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema announced that his government had reached an agreement with Zambia's eurobond holders under which the country would restructure $3.5 billion in debt under the G20 Common Framework, Bloomberg reported on March 25.

Zambia: Bondholders Agree To Restructure $3.5B in Debt

Uganda

Russia

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni appointed his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as head of the military amid a significant Cabinet reshuffle that saw five ministers dismissed, Africanews reported on March 22.

Uganda: President Appoints Son as Top Army Commander

Assessments

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Egypt

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Taiwan

Europe

Germany

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

South Africa

Brazil

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belgium

India

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

Snapshots

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (left) addresses lawmakers in parliament in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on March 28, 2023. 

Even if Ethiopia's failure to pay a Eurobond coupon doesn't lead to a default, the country will likely still face a long and painful economic recovery as it seeks an IMF bailout and external debt restructuring.

A Missed Coupon Payment Fuels Fears of an Ethiopian Default

A view of the city of Bahir Dar, the capital of the Amhara region in northern Ethiopia, on June 19, 2021.

Renewed conflict between Amhara special forces and the Ethiopian military is endangering the country's fragile peace and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's mandate.

Unrest in Amhara Threatens to Destabilize Northern Ethiopia's Tenuous Peace

Eritrea

Ethiopian military forces transport a Saeer KS-19 automatic 100 mm anti-aircraft gun Dec. 5, 2021, in Shewa Robit, Ethiopia.

A successful peace deal would facilitate humanitarian aid flows, increase regional access to services and spur the eventual return of foreign investment.

Tigrayan Rebels Begin Surrendering Their Heavy Weapons, a Hopeful Sign for Ethiopia

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Burundi

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Mozambique

Nigeria

Sudan

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Argentina

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

France

Ukraine

Belarus

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Egyptian pounds on Aug. 25, 2022.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: An Egypt-IMF Meeting, South Africa Votes on an Impeachment Inquiry

Redwan Hussein (second from the left), a representative of the Ethiopian government, and Getachew Reda (second from the right), a representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), sign a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on Nov. 2, 2022.

The government has inked a preliminary deal with Tigrayan rebels to end their two-year war. But historical grievances, implementation challenges, mistrust and third-party spoilers will risk returning the country to violence.

 In Ethiopia, Will a 'Permanent' Cessation of Hostilities Actually Install Lasting Peace?

United Kingdom

Liz Truss resigns as British prime minister on Oct. 20, 2022, in London.

The Weekly Rundown: A New British Prime Minister, China's Party Congress Ends

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Amhara-Tigray Tensions Rise Following Clashes in Southern Tigray

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

Ethiopia: Leading Oromo Liberation Front Figure Killed

Somalia: Government on High Alert After U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks in Capital

Somalia: Federal Government Expels Ethiopian Ambassador

Ethiopia: Paris Club to Extend Deadline for IMF Deal to June

Zambia: Bondholders Agree To Restructure $3.5B in Debt

Uganda: President Appoints Son as Top Army Commander

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support