Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

Politics

Clashes between forces loyal to Jubaland state and those linked to the federal government erupted in Somalia's town of Dollow on July 27 and 28, Garowe Online reported on July 28. 

Somalia: Fresh Clashes Erupt Between Federal Government and Jubaland Forces

Ethiopian authorities said they arrested 82 individuals suspected of links to the Islamic State Somalia Province, which operates in neighboring Somalia's Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on July 16. 

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

Eritrea

Eritrea's Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO) held its general conference in the Ethiopian town of Semera-Logia, in which it called for the toppling of Eritrea's ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) and the self-determination of Eritrea's Afar people through a ''political and military struggle,'' Addis Standard reported July 15.

Eritrea: Secessionist Group Holds General Conference in Ethiopia 

Egypt

Turkey

Turkey-mediated technical talks between Ethiopia and Somalia over Ethiopia potentially securing maritime access to Somali ports have been suspended indefinitely, Africa Intelligence reported on July 9.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Turkey-Led Mediation Over Maritime Access Indefinitely Suspended

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BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

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The U.S. State Department issued a memo giving 36 countries 60 days to meet new department requirements or be added to a travel ban implemented on June 9, The Washington Post reported on June 14.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

The National Election Board of Ethiopia revoked the legal status of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), citing its failure to meet the conditions tied to its registration as a party under "special consideration," Addis Standard reported May 14.

Ethiopia: Election Board Revokes TPLF's Legal Status 

The leader of Tigray's interim regional administration, Tadesse Werede, said that around 40% of Tigrayan territory remained under the control of "invaders" and that his administration would prioritize restoring the region's territorial integrity and ensure the return of internally displaced people, Addis Standard reported on May 6. 

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Leader Vows To Restore Territorial Integrity

Assessments

Europe

Germany

Ukraine

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Kenya

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Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

In the coming decade, water scarcity will likely contribute to the erosion of Egypt's economic and political independence, including its ability to act unilaterally against other countries vying for water along the Nile basin.

The Geopolitics of Water: The Threat to Egypt's Independence

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

The skyline of the western section of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is seen on Dec. 28, 2020. 

Multilateral support will facilitate the country's debt restructuring, but the enactment of painful economic and monetary reforms could see more Ethiopians join ethnic militias in the short-to-medium term.

Ethiopia's IMF Deal Presages Long-Term Gains but Risks Fueling Security Challenges

Snapshots

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

Energy

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Fresh Clashes Erupt Between Federal Government and Jubaland Forces

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

Eritrea: Secessionist Group Holds General Conference in Ethiopia

Ethiopia, Somalia: Turkey-Led Mediation Over Maritime Access Indefinitely Suspended

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

Ethiopia: Election Board Revokes TPLF's Legal Status

Ethiopia: Tigray Regional Leader Vows To Restore Territorial Integrity

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