Nigeria

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The United States is considering sanctions and increased Pentagon engagement to pressure Nigeria to better protect Christian communities and uphold religious freedoms, Reuters reported on Nov. 21.

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Considers Sanctions and Military Engagement Over Christian Protection Concerns

A Nigerian court sentenced separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu to life in prison after finding him guilty on seven charges, including terrorism, treason, and involvement with a banned separatist group, over his campaign for an independent Biafra state in southeastern Nigeria, BBC reported on Nov. 20.

Nigeria: Separatist Leader Found Guilty of Terrorism

Economics

The Nigerian government has yet to present the country's 2026 budget and its Medium Term Expenditure and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026-28, less than six weeks before the start of the new fiscal year, The Punch reported on Nov. 18.

Nigeria: 2026 Budget Yet To Be Submitted Amid Doubts Regarding Implementation of 2025 Budget

Chief of Army Staff of the Nigerian military, Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu, told troops in the city of Maiduguri that they should prepare for a new offensive against jihadist groups in the northeast of the country, the Daily Post reported on Nov. 7. 

Nigeria: Army Chief Hints at Fresh Anti-Jihadist Push in Northeast As Pentagon Advances Military Planning  

China

U.S. Republican Rep. for West Virginia Riley Moore pushed back against China's stated opposition to recent threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to use force in Nigeria, stressing on X that China "would not dictate [U.S.] foreign policy," Sahara Reporters reported on Nov. 4.

Nigeria, U.S.: Trump Ally Doubles Down on Threats Amid Fresh Claims of Boko Haram Genocide of Christians

Cameroon

Cameroonian opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who has contested incumbent candidate Paul Biya's victory in the October presidential election, has reportedly moved to Nigeria's Adamawa state, where Nigerian intelligence services are monitoring his presence and anticipating a potential request for his extradition, Africa Intelligence reported on Nov. 4.

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Tchiroma Reportedly Relocates to Nigeria

An advisor to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu welcomed assistance from the United States against armed groups targeting Christian communities and hinted at a potential meeting between Tinubu and U.S. President Donald Trump, but stressed that such U.S. support needed to respect Nigeria's sovereignty, Reuters reported on Nov. 3. 

Nigeria: Government Signals Readiness for Cooperation With U.S. After Trump's Threats

Equatorial Guinea

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Energy

At their Nov. 2 meeting, the eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in December -- the third consecutive small production hike of that level -- but plan to pause production hikes from January-March 2026, Reuters reported. 

OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns

Assessments

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

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Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

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Niger

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

On Geopolitics

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A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The Geopolitics of Water

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Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

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A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

Cabo Verde

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India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Considers Sanctions and Military Engagement Over Christian Protection Concerns

Nigeria: Separatist Leader Found Guilty of Terrorism

Nigeria: 2026 Budget Yet To Be Submitted Amid Doubts Regarding Implementation of 2025 Budget

Nigeria: Army Chief Hints at Fresh Anti-Jihadist Push in Northeast As Pentagon Advances Military Planning

Nigeria, U.S.: Trump Ally Doubles Down on Threats Amid Fresh Claims of Boko Haram Genocide of Christians

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Tchiroma Reportedly Relocates to Nigeria

Nigeria: Government Signals Readiness for Cooperation With U.S. After Trump's Threats

OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns

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