Cote d'Ivoire

Niger

Nigeria

Senegal

Algeria

Morocco

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

The heads of state of members of the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, signed an intergovernmental agreement backing the $25 billion African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, or AAGP, according to a July 19 joint statement from Morocco's state-owned National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines, or ONHYM, and Nigeria's state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Co., or NNPC.

Morocco, West Africa: ECOWAS Signs Agreement for $25B African Atlantic Gas Pipeline Project

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Olayemi Cardoso said the country's net foreign exchange reserves had risen from $3 billion to $40 billion since he took office in 2023, owing to economic and monetary reforms, adding that gross external reserves had reached close to $52 billion, BusinessDay reported on July 16.

Nigeria: Net Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach $40B, Central Bank Governor Says

Nigeria's House of Representatives withdrew its earlier approval of a constitutional amendment bill aiming to establish state police across Nigeria's 36 states and approved in second reading a separate executive bill from Nigerian President Bola Tinubu with similar objectives, Premium Times reported on July 14.

Nigeria: Lawmakers Withdraw State Police Bill, Press Ahead With New Tinubu-Backed Bill

Nigeria's military announced on July 10 that it had rescued all 44 students and teachers abducted on May 15 from three schools in Osiire district, Oyo state, Al Jazeera reported on July 12.

Nigeria: Military Rescues 44 School Kidnaping Victims in Southwest Oyo State

United States

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu directed the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, or FCCPC, to investigate U.S. technology companies Meta, Alphabet and X, as well as generative artificial intelligence companies operating in Nigeria, over their alleged anti-competitive practices, unauthorized exploitation of copyrighted news content and use of journalistic material from Nigerian news outlets to train generative AI models, Daily Trust reported on July 6.

Nigeria: Tinubu Orders Probe in U.S Tech Giants, AI Companies Over Alleged Anti-Competitive Practices

The Abuja Federal High Court directed Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister five opposition parties, including presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar's African Democratic Congress, or ADC, and prevent them from partaking in Nigeria's 2027 general election for failing to meet electoral performance thresholds set out in the Nigerian Constitution, the Daily Trust reported on June 15.

Nigeria: Federal High Court Orders Electoral Commission To Deregister Leading Opposition Party

Leaders for the Ijaw, Urhobo and Itsekiri communities of Nigeria's southern Delta state agreed on June 12 to rotate the House of Representatives seat for the Warri II federal constituency between the Ijaw and Itsekiri communities and raise the number of wards for Itsekiris in the Warri South West local government area from four to nine, THISDAY and The Guardian Nigeria reported on June 14.

Nigeria: Tensions Linger in Delta State Despite Federal Government-Brokered Deal 

Nigeria's House of Representatives passed a constitutional amendment bill (HB 617) to establish state police amid persistent insecurity, Premium Times reported on June 11.

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Dangote petroleum refinery plant is seen in Lagos, Nigeria, on April 6, 2026.

Nigeria will enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production.

Nigeria's Oil Gains From Iran War Face Old Challenges

Benin

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

Israel

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Madagascar

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

France

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Columns

On Security

Kenya

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

On Geopolitics

Comoros

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Angola

Ghana

Argentina

Brazil

Iraq

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Morocco, West Africa: ECOWAS Signs Agreement for $25B African Atlantic Gas Pipeline Project

Nigeria: Net Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach $40B, Central Bank Governor Says

Nigeria: Lawmakers Withdraw State Police Bill, Press Ahead With New Tinubu-Backed Bill

Nigeria: Military Rescues 44 School Kidnaping Victims in Southwest Oyo State

Nigeria: Tinubu Orders Probe in U.S Tech Giants, AI Companies Over Alleged Anti-Competitive Practices

Nigeria: Federal High Court Orders Electoral Commission To Deregister Leading Opposition Party

Nigeria: Tensions Linger in Delta State Despite Federal Government-Brokered Deal

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

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