Kenya

Mozambique

Nigeria

France

Military & Security

Politics

Kenyan lawmakers approved a defense cooperation agreement with France that will grant Kenyan security forces "access to French training, technology, and expertise" and strengthen bilateral cooperation in domains that include maritime security, counterterrorism and disaster relief, the Daily Nation reported on April 12.

Kenya: Parliament Ratifies Defense Pact With France

United States

Economics

The United States has expanded its travel advisory for Nigeria, urging citizens to reconsider travel due to worsening security conditions and authorizing the departure of nonemergency government staff and their families from its embassy in Abuja, Reuters reported on April 9. 

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Energy

A coalition of youth movements from Nigeria's southern Rivers state has urged the country's federal government to decentralize pipeline security contracts in the Niger Delta, stressing that this is essential to creating opportunities for youths and that failing to do so would be "neither equitable nor sustainable," THISDAY reported on April 7.

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

Nigeria's bicameral National Assembly approved the proposed 68.3 trillion naira ($49.4 billion) budget for 2026, up from 58.3 trillion naira initially proposed, and extended the implementation of the capital component of the 2025 budget until June 30, The Punch reported on March 31.

Nigeria: Parliament Approves 2026 Budget With Higher Oil Price Benchmark

Iran

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, or NUPRC, has cut approval times to revive old oil wells from weeks to hours, Bloomberg reported on March 24, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

The United States is operating MQ-9 Reaper drones in Nigeria in a strictly non-combat reconnaissance role, supporting Nigerian forces against jihadist groups, RFI reported on March 22.

Nigeria: U.S. Operates MQ-9 'Reaper' Drones in Nigeria for Intelligence Support

The average price of gasoline at Nigerian fuel stations rose from around 860 naira per liter to 970 naira per liter ($0.70 per liter or $2.65 per U.S. gallon) in the first few days of March, a close to 13% increase, after the country's Dangote refinery increased the price of its gantry by 100 naira per liter, BusinessDay reported on March 4.

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

Several northern Nigerian elites, including Islamic clerics and former interest group leaders, rejected recommendations made by U.S. lawmakers led by Republican Rep. Riley Moore to the White House on Feb. 23 for the United States to pressure Nigeria to scrap Sharia codes and criminal blasphemy laws, the Daily Trust reported on Feb. 25.

Nigeria: U.S. Lawmakers' Push To End Sharia Sparks Backlash in Nigeria's Northern States

Assessments

The Dangote petroleum refinery plant is seen in Lagos, Nigeria, on April 6, 2026.

Nigeria will enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production.

Nigeria's Oil Gains From Iran War Face Old Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Colombia

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Israel

China

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Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Madagascar

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Columns

On Security

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Chad

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

On Geopolitics

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Algeria

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Angola

Ghana

Argentina

Brazil

Iraq

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya: Parliament Ratifies Defense Pact With France

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

Nigeria: Parliament Approves 2026 Budget With Higher Oil Price Benchmark

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

Nigeria: U.S. Operates MQ-9 'Reaper' Drones in Nigeria for Intelligence Support

Nigeria: Iran-Driven Energy Price Increases Showcase Mixed Outlook for the Economy

Nigeria: U.S. Lawmakers' Push To End Sharia Sparks Backlash in Nigeria's Northern States

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