Nigeria

Politics

The opposition Nigeria Democratic Congress, or NDC, endorsed 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi as its presidential candidate for Nigeria's 2027 general election, and Obi named 2023 presidential candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate, Vanguard reported on May 30.

Nigeria: NDC Designates Peter Obi as Presidential Candidate, Portending Mounting Campaigning Activity

United States

Military & Security

U.S. forces reportedly killed around 20 Islamic State West Africa Province fighters on May 17 in airstrikes near Metele in Nigeria's northeastern Borno state, following high-level operations on May 15 that killed ISWAP's deputy leader, Abu Bakr al-Mainuki, along with around three dozen fighters, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 18.

Nigeria, U.S.: Joint Operations Kill Islamic State's Second in Command, ISWAP Fighters

Turkey

Nigeria and Turkey concluded a military cooperation agreement to strengthen defense ties through training, joint production and broader defense industry collaboration, Jeune Afrique reported on April 19.

Nigeria: Abuja Signs Defense Deal With Turkey Amid Escalating Jihadist Insurgency

Kenya

Mozambique

France

Kenyan lawmakers approved a defense cooperation agreement with France that will grant Kenyan security forces "access to French training, technology, and expertise" and strengthen bilateral cooperation in domains that include maritime security, counterterrorism and disaster relief, the Daily Nation reported on April 12.

Kenya: Parliament Ratifies Defense Pact With France

Economics

The United States has expanded its travel advisory for Nigeria, urging citizens to reconsider travel due to worsening security conditions and authorizing the departure of nonemergency government staff and their families from its embassy in Abuja, Reuters reported on April 9. 

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Energy

A coalition of youth movements from Nigeria's southern Rivers state has urged the country's federal government to decentralize pipeline security contracts in the Niger Delta, stressing that this is essential to creating opportunities for youths and that failing to do so would be "neither equitable nor sustainable," THISDAY reported on April 7.

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

Nigeria's bicameral National Assembly approved the proposed 68.3 trillion naira ($49.4 billion) budget for 2026, up from 58.3 trillion naira initially proposed, and extended the implementation of the capital component of the 2025 budget until June 30, The Punch reported on March 31.

Nigeria: Parliament Approves 2026 Budget With Higher Oil Price Benchmark

Iran

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, or NUPRC, has cut approval times to revive old oil wells from weeks to hours, Bloomberg reported on March 24, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Dangote petroleum refinery plant is seen in Lagos, Nigeria, on April 6, 2026.

Nigeria will enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production.

Nigeria's Oil Gains From Iran War Face Old Challenges

Benin

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

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Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Madagascar

Canada

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Timor-Leste

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Vietnam

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Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Columns

On Security

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

On Geopolitics

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Algeria

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Angola

Ghana

Argentina

Brazil

Iraq

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: NDC Designates Peter Obi as Presidential Candidate, Portending Mounting Campaigning Activity

Nigeria, U.S.: Joint Operations Kill Islamic State's Second in Command, ISWAP Fighters

Nigeria: Abuja Signs Defense Deal With Turkey Amid Escalating Jihadist Insurgency

Kenya: Parliament Ratifies Defense Pact With France

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

Nigeria: Parliament Approves 2026 Budget With Higher Oil Price Benchmark

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

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