Nigeria

Economics

Energy

Nigeria's crude oil production reached 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2024, Vanguard News reported on Jan. 16, citing OPEC's January 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report. 

Nigeria: OPEC Report Finds Oil Output Reaching Production Quota

Military & Security

Militants belonging to Islamic State West African Province, or ISWAP, and Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihad, also known as JAS or Boko Haram, on Jan. 14  killed at least 40 people from Nigeria's Dumba community in Borno state, Reuters reported the following day. 

Nigeria: JAS and ISWAP Militants Kill 40 Civilians Amid Surge in Attacks

China

Politics

Nigerian Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar announced that Nigeria would expand defense cooperation with China regarding domestic weapons production and military training, The Punch reported on Jan. 10.

Nigeria: Government To Strengthen Defense Cooperation With China, Seek Expanded Yuan Currency Swap

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chad

Ethiopia

Senegal

France

French President Emmanuel Macron said France had decided to withdraw from military facilities in West and Central Africa on its own initiative, triggering spats with Senegal and Chad, Radio France Internationale reported on Jan. 7.

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa  

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu presented a 49.7 trillion naira ($31.9 billion) 2025 budget to Nigeria's National Assembly, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 18. 

Nigeria: President Tinubu Presents 2025 Budget

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Venezuela

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

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United Arab Emirates

Russia

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

The Nigerian government's 2025-27 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework foresees 31.24 trillion naira ($18.6 billion) in additional borrowing and 50.39 trillion naira in debt servicing costs over the next three years, The Punch reported on Nov. 19.

Nigeria: Budget Plans Foresee Rising Borrowing and Debt Servicing Costs in 2025-27

Benin

Cameroon

Niger

Chad's interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby threatened to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force, or MNJTF, due to what he described as a failure to combat insurgent groups in the Lake Chad region effectively, Reuters reported on Nov. 4.

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

Assessments

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Burkina Faso

Mali

Mauritania

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

Uganda

Australia

Japan

Philippines

United Kingdom

India

A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

Cabo Verde

Europe

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

Togo

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Columns

On Geopolitics

A busy street is seen in Lagos, Nigeria. 

Social Issues

The Nigerian state is unprepared to handle the impending population boom, which will likely spur massive overpopulation and underdevelopment in urban centers and inflame regional divides.

Africa's Population Boom: Nigeria

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose during their Feb. 4, 2022, meeting in Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive March 20, 2023, in Moscow for a three-day trip to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking Russian officials. 

The Weekly Rundown: Nigeria Elects Governors, Xi Visits Russia

Snapshots

Nigerian President-elect Bola Tinubu (right) and the chairman of the country's Independent National Election Commission (INEC), Yakubu Mahmood, look on during a ceremony in Abuja on March 1, 2023. 

Tinubu will likely face a legal challenge to his victory that will prolong the already elevated risk of electoral unrest, though he'll almost certainly still take office in May.

Nigeria Braces for More Turmoil After the Ruling Party Wins the Presidency

Poland

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech at the Kremlin in Moscow on Sept. 30, 2022. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Gives a Speech, Biden Visits Poland as Ukraine War Hits One Year

Supporters hold flags to support opposition PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar during a campaign rally in Kano state in northwestern Nigeria on Feb. 9, 2023.

A potential break from Nigeria's informal power-sharing system and the rising popularity of a dark horse candidate are set to make the country's upcoming election divisive and violent.

A Presidential Election in Nigeria Will Likely Entrench the Status Quo

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: OPEC Report Finds Oil Output Reaching Production Quota

Nigeria: JAS and ISWAP Militants Kill 40 Civilians Amid Surge in Attacks

Nigeria: Government To Strengthen Defense Cooperation With China, Seek Expanded Yuan Currency Swap

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa

Nigeria: President Tinubu Presents 2025 Budget

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Nigeria: Budget Plans Foresee Rising Borrowing and Debt Servicing Costs in 2025-27

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

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