Snapshots

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

M23 fighters guard the area during a meeting between the rebel group and East African Regional Force (EACRF) officials at the Rumangabo camp in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Jan. 6, 2023.

Military & Security

The latest flare-up over an alleged airspace violation increases the risk of Congolese retaliatory measures that could limit the progress of peace processes in eastern Congo.

Rwanda's Attack on a Congolese Jet Escalates Border Tensions

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Podcasts

We discuss the latest flare-up of violence near the country's eastern border with Rwanda and what it means for other nearby nations. 


Essential Geopolitics: What’s Going on in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

Assessments

Kenya

South Africa

Colombia

United States

China

Taiwan

A Chinese military vessel on Aug. 5, 2022, sails off Pingtan Island, Fujian province, one of mainland China's closest points to Taiwan. Beijing is likely to continue rolling out new methods of economic coercion against U.S. and Taiwanese companies in the coming week.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's President Takes Office, China Coerces Taiwan

U.S.-China Relations

A Congolese army tank heads toward the eastern city of Goma on May 25, 2022, amid clashes with M23 rebels. 

Economics

Rwanda’s alleged support of militants active in eastern Congo will continue to undermine efforts to restore stability in the war-torn, resource-rich region.

Rwanda's Role in Congo’s Forever War

South Sudan

Burundi

Tanzania

Uganda

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Security

Mozambique

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Columns

On Security

Belarus

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Saudi Arabia

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko on May 28, 2021, in Minsk, Belarus. Sanctions and expulsions might not outweigh the benefits for Minsk of suppressing its exiled opposition.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Sanctions and expulsions might not outweigh the benefits for Minsk of suppressing its exiled opposition.

Belarus Might Find Its RyanAir Forced Landing Worth The Blowback

Guidance

Australia

France

Iran

The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

Rwanda's President Paul Kagame confirmed that he will seek a fourth term in office next year, a move that would extend his presidency to nearly three decades, The East African reported on Sept. 20.

Rwanda: President Kagame Announces Fourth-term Bid

Member states of the East African Community (EAC) voted to renew the mandate of the EAC regional force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo until Sept. 8, Radio Okapi reported on May 31.

Congo: East African Community Force Mandate Extended Through September

Rwandan President Paul Kagame said in a Jan. 9 public address that Rwanda "cannot keep hosting refugees" from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 10.

Rwanda, Congo: Kagame Says Rwanda 'Cannot Keep Hosting' Congolese Refugees

The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo gave Rwandan Ambassador Vincent Karega 48 hours to leave the country in response to Rwanda's alleged support for M23 rebels, Reuters reported Oct. 30.

Congo: Kinshasa Expels Rwandan Ambassador Over Alleged Support for M23 Rebels

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the United States was "very concerned" about "credible" U.N. reports demonstrating Rwanda's support for the M23 insurgency in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, but he fell short of condemning Kigali, Radio France Internationale reported Aug. 10.

Congo, U.S.: Blinken Falls Short of Condemning Rwandan Support for M23 Rebel Group

A U.N. panel of experts said Rwandan troops conducted military operations in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo between November 2021 and July 2022 and that they have been supporting M23 rebels, Reuters reported Aug. 4.

Congo: U.N. Says Rwandan Troops Intervened in Eastern Congo

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame agreed on July 6 to immediately cease hostilities following weeks of escalating tensions over clashes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, The East African reported July 7.

Congo, Rwanda: Tshisekedi and Kagame Agree to De-escalate, but Fighting Continues

The East African Community (EAC) announced that it will send a regional force to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and ordered an immediate ceasefire between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, AP reported June 20.

Congo: East African Community to Deploy Regional Force

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Mongolia

Rwanda is a landlocked African country located in Central and East Africa. It is bordered by Uganda to the north, Tanzania to the east, Burundi to the south and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west.    The country is firmly ensconced in Africa's Great Lakes region, which is dominated by bodies of water, such as Lake Victoria, that have acted as regional trade and communication thoroughfares for centuries or longer. Rwanda thus shares some linguistic and cultural similarities with Uganda, Kenya, Burundi and other Great Lakes countries. These ties have helped fuel the development of the East African Community, an intergovernmental organization charged with greater integration among its members.    Rwanda's greatest challenge is twofold. First, it must manage its ethnic diversity. The ethnic cleavages that were developed and fostered under Belgian colonialism helped drive the country to one of the 20th century's worst genocides. Since 1994, the capital city of Kigali has clamped down on many forms of dissent in order to maintain internal order. A critical question going forward is if Rwanda's political system can reform and open up to foster deeper reconciliation in the years ahead.    Rwanda must also manage its landlocked position. With no access to the sea, Rwanda must manage the high costs of doing business, in terms of exports and imports, and remains dependent on maintaining good relations with its coastal neighbors. In order to mitigate these constraints, Rwanda has tried to turn itself into the "Singapore of Central Africa," improving its internal infrastructure and pushing for regional infrastructure projects to help link it to markets beyond.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Rwanda: President Kagame Announces Fourth-term Bid

Congo: East African Community Force Mandate Extended Through September

Rwanda, Congo: Kagame Says Rwanda 'Cannot Keep Hosting' Congolese Refugees

Congo: Kinshasa Expels Rwandan Ambassador Over Alleged Support for M23 Rebels

Congo, U.S.: Blinken Falls Short of Condemning Rwandan Support for M23 Rebel Group

Congo: U.N. Says Rwandan Troops Intervened in Eastern Congo

Congo, Rwanda: Tshisekedi and Kagame Agree to De-escalate, but Fighting Continues

Congo: East African Community to Deploy Regional Force

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