Mozambique

Rwanda

Europe

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

French oil major TotalEnergies hired security guards from Isco Seguranca, a company linked to Rwanda's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front party, or RPF, to protect the site of its Mozambique LNG, the Financial Times reported on July 17.

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project 

Politics

Rwandan President Paul Kagame is poised to extend his 24-year rule by another five years after securing 99.15% of the vote in preliminary results from the country's July 15 presidential election, with 79% of the votes tallied, New Times Rwanda has reported.

Rwanda: President Kagame Wins Reelection in Landslide, Extending 24-year Rule

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The U.N. peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo paused its withdrawal, with no timeline set for the next phase, Reuters reported on July 9.

Congo: U.N. Peacekeeping Forces Indefinitely Pause Troop Withdrawal

The European Union is considering doubling its funding to 40 million euros for the recently reinforced Rwandan troops who, with the help of Mozambiquan government forces, are fighting Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado, Club of Mozambique reported June 17.

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi unveiled the composition of his new government, Reuters reported on May 29.

Congo: Tshisekedi Forms New Government

Rwanda is expanding its troop deployment in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province as part of efforts to counter Islamic State Mozambique Province, Club of Mozambique reported on May 20.

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

The Democratic Republic of the Congo called for the imposition of an international embargo on mineral exports from Rwanda, claiming that the exports should be considered "blood minerals" due to their sale allegedly financing Kigali's support for M23 rebels in eastern Congo, Bloomberg reported on May 15.

Congo: Kinshasa Calls for International Blockage on Rwandan Mineral Exports

French President Emmanuel Macron urged Rwanda to "halt its support" for M23 rebels in eastern Congo as well as withdraw its troops from the region during a joint press conference with Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, Le Monde reported April 20.

Congo, Rwanda: France Calls Rwanda to Withdraw Troops from Eastern Congo, Welcomes Tshisekedi's Commitment to Tackling FDLR 

Assessments

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Senegal

Sudan

Togo

Uganda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Snapshots

M23 fighters guard the area during a meeting between the rebel group and East African Regional Force (EACRF) officials at the Rumangabo camp in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Jan. 6, 2023.

The latest flare-up over an alleged airspace violation increases the risk of Congolese retaliatory measures that could limit the progress of peace processes in eastern Congo.

Rwanda's Attack on a Congolese Jet Escalates Border Tensions

Media

Podcasts

We discuss the latest flare-up of violence near the country's eastern border with Rwanda and what it means for other nearby nations. 


Essential Geopolitics: What’s Going on in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

Kenya

South Africa

Colombia

United States

China

Taiwan

A Chinese military vessel on Aug. 5, 2022, sails off Pingtan Island, Fujian province, one of mainland China's closest points to Taiwan. Beijing is likely to continue rolling out new methods of economic coercion against U.S. and Taiwanese companies in the coming week.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's President Takes Office, China Coerces Taiwan

A Congolese army tank heads toward the eastern city of Goma on May 25, 2022, amid clashes with M23 rebels. 

Rwanda’s alleged support of militants active in eastern Congo will continue to undermine efforts to restore stability in the war-torn, resource-rich region.

Rwanda's Role in Congo’s Forever War

Burundi

Tanzania

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

Security

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

Columns

On Security

Belarus

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko on May 28, 2021, in Minsk, Belarus. Sanctions and expulsions might not outweigh the benefits for Minsk of suppressing its exiled opposition.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Sanctions and expulsions might not outweigh the benefits for Minsk of suppressing its exiled opposition.

Belarus Might Find Its RyanAir Forced Landing Worth The Blowback

Guidance

Australia

France

Iran

The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

Wider geopolitical factors ultimately led Hutus to kill their Tutsi neighbors in 1994.

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The murder of close to 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus in 1994 didn't occur in a vacuum. Instead, a battle between opposing forces on the continent laid the ground for the frenzy of violence. 

The Geopolitical Roots of the Rwandan Genocide

Even with a regional spread, the nature of the disease means the threat to the world at large remains very small.

Congo: Attacks on Ebola Clinics Complicate Efforts to Stop a Regional Outbreak

Rwanda is a landlocked African country located in Central and East Africa. It is bordered by Uganda to the north, Tanzania to the east, Burundi to the south and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west.    The country is firmly ensconced in Africa's Great Lakes region, which is dominated by bodies of water, such as Lake Victoria, that have acted as regional trade and communication thoroughfares for centuries or longer. Rwanda thus shares some linguistic and cultural similarities with Uganda, Kenya, Burundi and other Great Lakes countries. These ties have helped fuel the development of the East African Community, an intergovernmental organization charged with greater integration among its members.    Rwanda's greatest challenge is twofold. First, it must manage its ethnic diversity. The ethnic cleavages that were developed and fostered under Belgian colonialism helped drive the country to one of the 20th century's worst genocides. Since 1994, the capital city of Kigali has clamped down on many forms of dissent in order to maintain internal order. A critical question going forward is if Rwanda's political system can reform and open up to foster deeper reconciliation in the years ahead.    Rwanda must also manage its landlocked position. With no access to the sea, Rwanda must manage the high costs of doing business, in terms of exports and imports, and remains dependent on maintaining good relations with its coastal neighbors. In order to mitigate these constraints, Rwanda has tried to turn itself into the "Singapore of Central Africa," improving its internal infrastructure and pushing for regional infrastructure projects to help link it to markets beyond.

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project

Rwanda: President Kagame Wins Reelection in Landslide, Extending 24-year Rule

Congo: U.N. Peacekeeping Forces Indefinitely Pause Troop Withdrawal

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

Congo: Tshisekedi Forms New Government

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

Congo: Kinshasa Calls for International Blockage on Rwandan Mineral Exports

Congo, Rwanda: France Calls Rwanda to Withdraw Troops from Eastern Congo, Welcomes Tshisekedi's Commitment to Tackling FDLR

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