Somalia

Economics

Military & Security

Pirates liberated the Bangladeshi-flagged MV Abdullah bulk carrier after its owner paid a $5 million ransom, Reuters reported April 14. 

Somalia: MV Abdullah Liberated After Ransom Paid, but Puntland Arrests 8 Pirates

Ethiopia

Kenya

Politics

Kenya proposed a regional maritime treaty that will govern how landlocked countries can secure commercial port access with a view of de-escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, Reuters reported on April 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

United States

The U.S. Embassy in Kenya received intelligence concerning potential threats to several locations in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, notably Aden Adde International Airport, Garowe Online reported on April 9.

Somalia: Government on High Alert After U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks in Capital

Somalia expelled Ethiopian Ambassador Muktar Mohamed Ware and demanded the closure of Ethiopia's consulate offices in Hargeisa, which is the capital of Somalia's breakaway Somaliland region, and in Somalia's autonomous Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on April 4. 

Somalia: Federal Government Expels Ethiopian Ambassador

United Arab Emirates

Somalia's autonomous Puntland region withdrew its recognition of the country's federal government following the bicameral federal parliament's approval of changes to Somalia's provisional constitution, Reuters reported on March 31.

Somalia: Puntland Region Withdraws Recognition of Federal Government Following Constitutional Changes 

China

India

The Indian navy and special forces seized the hijacked Malta-flagged Ruen bulk carrier from Somali pirates and rescued its 17 crew members 1,400 kilometers, or 755 nautical miles, from India's shores, Reuters reported on March 18.

Somalia, India: Indian Navy Rescues Hijacked Bulk Carrier

Turkey

Europe

Bangladesh

A group of around 20 armed individuals hijacked the Bangladeshi-flagged MV Abdullah, which was sailing from Mozambique to the United Arab Emirates with a load of 55,000 tons of coal, off Somalia's coast, Al Jazeera reported on March 12.

Somalia: Bangladeshi-Flagged Bulk Carrier Hijacked off Somalia's Coast

Djibouti

Ethiopia is considering scrapping a maritime deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, Bloomberg reported on March 8.

Ethiopia: Government Allegedly Mulls Scraping Maritime Deal With Somaliland

Assessments

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Yemen

A map of the waters off the coast of Somalia. A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

A sustained resurgence in Somali piracy would put additional pressure on the global shipping industry, but its impact will likely be limited compared to that seen in the late 2000s.

The Implications of Resurging Pirate Attacks off Somalia's Coast

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

Media

Podcasts

What are the implications of ATMIS' withdrawal from Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Somalia's Security Outlook

What do al Shabaab's territorial losses mean for Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Al Shabaab's Recent Territorial Losses

RANE global security analyst Charles Thorson talks to Emily Donahue about the growing regional security risks posed by al Shabaab in Somalia.

Essential Geopolitics: Monitoring Al Shabaab

People wait for water with containers at a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Baidoa, Somalia, on Feb. 13, 2022. 

Security

The Jihadist Wars

East African Integration

The crisis could aid al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts and, in turn, its ability to conduct more terrorist attacks against political leaders in the drought-stricken country.

In Somalia, Food and Water Woes Risk Boosting al-Shabaab and Derailing Elections

Snapshots

Somalian President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed on July 5, 2018, in Djibouti.

This latest in a series of confrontations between the president and prime minister will destabilize an already fragile political environment.

Preelection Tensions Surge in Somalia as President Curtails Premier's Powers

Columns

On Security

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Iraq

Syria

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019, during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The Fight Against the Islamic State

In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain.

Jihadist Terrorism After the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The War in Afghanistan

Mozambique

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

A member of parliament gestures in response to the president’s request to annul a law extending his term in Mogadishu, Somalia, on May 1, 2021. 

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The president's no longer trying to extend his term, but his disputes with state leaders still threaten the country’s stability.

Reversing a Controversial Law Won’t End Somalia's Political Crisis

Guidance

Central African Republic

Sudan

Ecuador

South Korea

Vietnam

A worker hangs traditional red lanterns for the upcoming Spring Festival on Feb. 3, 2021, in Beijing.

COVID-19

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Lunar New Year and an African Union Summit

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: MV Abdullah Liberated After Ransom Paid, but Puntland Arrests 8 Pirates

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

Somalia: Government on High Alert After U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks in Capital

Somalia: Federal Government Expels Ethiopian Ambassador

Somalia: Puntland Region Withdraws Recognition of Federal Government Following Constitutional Changes

Somalia, India: Indian Navy Rescues Hijacked Bulk Carrier

Somalia: Bangladeshi-Flagged Bulk Carrier Hijacked off Somalia's Coast

Ethiopia: Government Allegedly Mulls Scraping Maritime Deal With Somaliland

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