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Somalia

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What do al Shabaab's territorial losses mean for Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Al Shabaab's Recent Territorial Losses

RANE global security analyst Charles Thorson talks to Emily Donahue about the growing regional security risks posed by al Shabaab in Somalia.

Essential Geopolitics: Monitoring Al Shabaab

Assessments

People wait for water with containers at a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Baidoa, Somalia, on Feb. 13, 2022. 

Economics

Politics

The Jihadist Wars

East African Integration

The crisis could aid al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts and, in turn, its ability to conduct more terrorist attacks against political leaders in the drought-stricken country.

In Somalia, Food and Water Woes Risk Boosting al-Shabaab and Derailing Elections

Security

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Somalian President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed on July 5, 2018, in Djibouti.

This latest in a series of confrontations between the president and prime minister will destabilize an already fragile political environment.

Preelection Tensions Surge in Somalia as President Curtails Premier's Powers

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A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019, during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The War in Afghanistan

In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain.

Jihadist Terrorism After the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Mozambique

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Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

A member of parliament gestures in response to the president’s request to annul a law extending his term in Mogadishu, Somalia, on May 1, 2021. 

The president's no longer trying to extend his term, but his disputes with state leaders still threaten the country’s stability.

Reversing a Controversial Law Won’t End Somalia's Political Crisis

Old Leaders in a New Africa

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A worker hangs traditional red lanterns for the upcoming Spring Festival on Feb. 3, 2021, in Beijing.

Environment, Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Lunar New Year and an African Union Summit

COVID-19

A hotel in the Somalian city of Kismayo on July 13, 2019, a day after at least 26 people, including several foreigners, were killed and 56 people were injured in a suicide bomb and gun attack claimed by al Shabaab militants.

The move will undermine efforts to consolidate federal control of restive Somalian provinces, and compound security woes amid a U.S. drawdown.

What Cutting off Ties With Kenya Over Sovereignty Means for Somalia

Eritrea

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Members of the Amhara militia fighting alongside Ethiopian forces in Tigray ride on the back of a truck in Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8, 2020. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Addis Ababa’s military offensive in Tigray could trigger a wider conflict that further erodes the country’s attractiveness for foreign investment. 


What’s at Stake as Ethiopia Barrels Toward Civil War 

A checkpoint on Sept. 9, 2020, in Mekele, Ethiopia, the day Tigray held regional elections. A military operation against Tigray will not prove easy for the Ethiopian government.

In addition to the secession risk it poses throughout Ethiopia, the conflict could draw in other countries in the region.

Conflict in Tigray Has Major Implications for Ethiopia, and the Region

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

Somalia's lower house of parliament on March 8 approved a new anti-terrorism law to provide a legal framework for fighting terrorism, with 133 members voting in favor, three rejecting it and seven abstaining, Garowe Online reported March 9.

Somalia: Lower House Approves Anti-Terrorism Bill

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Somalia that will release $10 million in immediate relief, Reuters reported Oct. 17.

Somalia: Government Reaches Staff Agreement With IMF Ahead of Potential Debt Forgiveness in 2023

The Somali government claims to have forced al Shabaab militants out of 30 villages over the last month, many of which served as traditional strongholds for the militant group in Somalia’s central Hiran region, Voice of America reported Sept. 20.

Somalia: Military Continues Offensive Against Al Shabaab Alongside Allied Militias

Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre named Mukhtar Robow, a co-founder and former spokesperson for the al-Shabab extremist group, as the country's minister of religious affairs, Reuters reported Aug. 2.

Somalia: Al-Shabab Co-Founder Appointed Minister of Religious Affairs

The East African Community (EAC) agreed to fast-track the verification process aimed at determining Somalia's readiness to join the bloc, The East African reported July 23.

Somalia: EAC to Fast-Track Somalia's Membership Verification Process

The International Monetary Fund announced on May 19 that it will continue to support Somalia with its Extended Credit Facility through August, Reuters reported May 20.

Somalia: IMF to Give Budget Support Through August

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an order to redeploy just under 500 U.S. troops to Somalia to counter the Islamist militant group al-Shabab, AP reported May 16.

Somalia: U.S. Biden Administration Approves Redeployment of Troops

Former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (2012-2017) won the country's May 16 presidential election in a third-round runoff vote, the AP reported May 16.

Somalia: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Wins Presidential Election

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Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Lower House Approves Anti-Terrorism Bill

Somalia: Government Reaches Staff Agreement With IMF Ahead of Potential Debt Forgiveness in 2023

Somalia: Military Continues Offensive Against Al Shabaab Alongside Allied Militias

Somalia: Al-Shabab Co-Founder Appointed Minister of Religious Affairs

Somalia: EAC to Fast-Track Somalia's Membership Verification Process

Somalia: IMF to Give Budget Support Through August

Somalia: U.S. Biden Administration Approves Redeployment of Troops

Somalia: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Wins Presidential Election

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