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People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

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Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

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An aerial view taken Oct. 29, 2022, of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

The Saudi-UAE Regional Rivalry Intensifies

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

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Russia

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

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What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

Energy

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

How will the fighting in Sudan evolve over the coming weeks?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for the Conflict in Sudan

Black smoke covers the sky above Khartoum, Sudan, on April 19, 2023, amid ongoing clashes between rival armed forces in the capital city.

Intense combat in major cities will likely persist, although brief pauses in fighting in the coming days could allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals.

What to Watch for as Violence in Sudan Escalates

Snapshots

Heavy smoke billows above buildings near the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023, amid clashes between the army and paramilitary troops. 

Clashes between the military and Rapid Support Forces will likely persist despite international calls for peace, and could escalate into a sustained nationwide conflict.

Sudan Descends Into Conflict as Army, Paramilitary Face Off

Members of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group are seen in a desert area about 100 kilometers north of Khartoum on Sept. 25, 2019. 

The deployment of RSF fighters to Khartoum and the military's warnings indicate heightened tensions that could spur a greater conflict and derail Sudan's transition to civilian rule.

In Sudan, a Standoff Between the Army and Paramilitary Forces Risks Renewed Violence

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Demonstrators march in a protest in the area south of Sudan's capital Khartoum on Oct. 25, 2022, on the first anniversary of the military coup. 

Even if an agreement is reached, civilian resistance groups' refusal to make concessions to the military may continue to fuel violent unrest. 

A Year After the Military Coup, Is Sudan Any Closer to a Power-Sharing Deal?

Egypt

A general view shows the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, on Feb. 19, 2022. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The unilateral filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) risks setting a dangerous precedent for how the region's increasingly scarce water supplies will be governed.


The Long-Term Water Politics of Ethiopia's Nile River Mega-Dam

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a major attack against the Sudanese Armed Forces' (SAF) headquarters in Khartoum on Sept. 16, Radio France Internationale reported on Sept. 19. 

Sudan: Fighting Intensifies in Khartoum as RSF Surrounds Military Headquarters

Ukraine's special services were "likely" behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation targeting Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are backed by Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, in Khartoum, CNN reported on Sept. 19, citing a Ukrainian military source.

Sudan, Ukraine: Kyiv 'Likely' Behind Drone Strikes on Russia-Backed Forces in Khartoum

The deputy chair of Sudan's Transitional Military Council, Malik Agar, said a new Cabinet will be announced in Port Sudan, the capital of Red Sea state, at the end of September, Radio Dabanga reported on Sept. 18.

Sudan: Caretaker Government to Be Announced by End of September

The leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threatened to set up "civilian rule" in the areas under the RSF's control with Khartoum as its "capital," Radio Dabanga reported on Sept. 15.

Sudan: RSF Floats Governing Authority in Khartoum

Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan concluded two days of negotiations on the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without significant progress, Addis Standard reported on Aug. 29.

Ethiopia: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Negotiations Conclude With No Progress

Niger

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, posted a video address on his Telegram channel on Aug. 21, his first since the short-lived Wagner mutiny in June, Reuters reported the next day.

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

The United States announced economic sanctions on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for "perpetuating violence" during the conflict that broke out April 15, Bloomberg reported on June 1.

Sudan: U.S. Sanctions Both Sides of Sudanese Conflict

Residents of Sudan's capital Khartoum reported some artillery fire and warplanes flying above the city one day after the warring Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to a cease-fire, Reuters reported on May 23.

Sudan: Fighting Rages on Despite Truce, U.S. Sanctions Warning

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: Fighting Intensifies in Khartoum as RSF Surrounds Military Headquarters

Sudan, Ukraine: Kyiv 'Likely' Behind Drone Strikes on Russia-Backed Forces in Khartoum

Sudan: Caretaker Government to Be Announced by End of September

Sudan: RSF Floats Governing Authority in Khartoum

Ethiopia: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Negotiations Conclude With No Progress

Russia, Africa: Prigozhin Posts First Video Since Mutiny, May Be in Africa

Sudan: U.S. Sanctions Both Sides of Sudanese Conflict

Sudan: Fighting Rages on Despite Truce, U.S. Sanctions Warning

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