Sudan

United States

Military & Security

Politics

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, seized the town of Babanusa in the central West Kordofan state from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, following a two-year siege, Sudan War Monitor reported on Dec. 1. 

Sudan: RSF Captures Babanusa Town in West Kordofan Despite Unilateral Truce 

Russia

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, offered Russia a 25-year deal to establish its first African naval facility at Port Sudan, which would be able to accommodate up to 300 personnel and four warships, The Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 1.

Sudan: SAF Offers Russia Naval Base as U.S. Increases Pressure Over Truce, Chemical Weapons Use

Chief of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Gen. Mohammed "Hemedti" Dagalo, announced that the RSF would unilaterally enter a three-month humanitarian truce with the rival Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Reuters reported Nov. 24.

Sudan: RSF Agrees To Enter Unilateral Truce as SAF Takes Jab at U.S.-led Quartet

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, said that it had accepted proposals by the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for a humanitarian truce and that it was looking to begin talks on a cessation of hostilities agreement, Sudan Tribune reported Oct. 6.

Sudan: RSF Accepts U.S. Proposals for Humanitarian Truce As Al-Burhan Doubles Down on Hostile Rhetoric 

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, announced it had captured El Fashir, the capital of North Darfur state and the location of the army's main headquarters, the last major military stronghold in the region, Reuters reported on Oct. 26. 

Sudan: RSF Claims Full Control of Strategic City of El Fashir

The United States is hosting indirect talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in Washington with the goal of establishing a humanitarian truce between the two sides and returning to the Jeddah peace negotiating framework, Sudan Tribune reported on Oct. 23 based on talks with several sources. 

Sudan: Several Outlets Report Start of Indirect SAF-RSF Talks, SAF Denies

South Sudan

Uganda

A faction within South Sudan's opposition Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In-Opposition party (SPLM-IO), which supports suspended First Vice President Riek Machar, called for armed mobilization to pursue "regime change," AFP reported on Sept.15.

South Sudan: Opposition Demands Regime Change After Treason Charges Filed Against First Vice President

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Sudan's Sovereignty Council, the governing body backed by the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, rejected a Sept. 12 proposal by the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for a three-month humanitarian truce with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, after the RSF launched drone strikes on critical infrastructure in White Nile state, Sudan Tribune reported on Sept. 14.

Sudan: SAF Rejects Truce Proposals From U.S.-Led Quartet

Assessments

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

Economics

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

Snapshots

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (right) waves as he arrives in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 9, 2024, for the launch of new peace talks with rebel groups.

Energy

Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

South Sudan Hurtles Toward Another Civil War

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

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Oman

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The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

The Mohajer 6 drone is displayed on Aug. 23, 2023, in Tehran, Iran. Through a sort of drone diplomacy, Tehran hopes to rekindle dormant ties with the Sudanese government to aid the latter in its ongoing civil war.

A stronger Sudanese government negotiating hand would result in a power-sharing structure reducing Rapid Support Forces, and by extension, UAE, influence.

Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in southern Khartoum amidst ongoing fighting on June 7, 2023. 

As the war enters its seventh month, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF shows no sign of abating, with greater civilian and humanitarian hardships on the horizon.

In Sudan, Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: RSF Captures Babanusa Town in West Kordofan Despite Unilateral Truce

Sudan: SAF Offers Russia Naval Base as U.S. Increases Pressure Over Truce, Chemical Weapons Use

Sudan: RSF Agrees To Enter Unilateral Truce as SAF Takes Jab at U.S.-led Quartet

Sudan: RSF Accepts U.S. Proposals for Humanitarian Truce As Al-Burhan Doubles Down on Hostile Rhetoric

Sudan: RSF Claims Full Control of Strategic City of El Fashir

Sudan: Several Outlets Report Start of Indirect SAF-RSF Talks, SAF Denies

South Sudan: Opposition Demands Regime Change After Treason Charges Filed Against First Vice President

Sudan: SAF Rejects Truce Proposals From U.S.-Led Quartet

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