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Military & Security

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, seized a military camp from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, located in the southeastern state of Sennar and launched attacks in neighboring White Nile state, Sudan Tribune reported on July 23.

Sudan: RSF Advances in White Nile and Sennar States

Lt. Gen. Yasser al-Atta of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, reiterated the SAF's opposition to peace negotiations with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Sudan Tribune reported on July 15.

Sudan: Army Rejects Negotiations With RSF Despite Ongoing U.N.-Mediated Talks

South Sudan

Politics

Riek Machar, South Sudan's vice president and leader of the armed opposition faction, rejected the Dec. 22 election date proposed by the National Election Commission, Reuters reported on July 8.

South Sudan: Vice President Rejects Election Date and Security Bill

United States

United Arab Emirates

Economics

The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, announced that it had blocked the assets of seven Emirati companies through its "blocked pending investigation" designation due to their potential violation of U.S. sanctions on Sudan, Sudan Tribune reported on June 6. 

Sudan: U.S. Treasury Blocks UAE Companies' Assets Over Sudan Conflict 

Lt. Gen. Yasser al-Atta of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, said the leader of the SAF-backed Transitional Military Council, Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, would sign an agreement granting Russia access to a naval supply point in Sudan in exchange for military support for the SAF, Radio Dabanga reported on May 29.

Sudan: SAF Confirms Upcoming Naval Base Deal With Russia, Pours Cold Water on Peace Talks

Comoros

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Arab leaders began to arrive in Manama, Bahrain, on May 15, for the 33rd Arab League summit that will focus on developing a consensus on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, The National reported the next day.

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Chad

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned of an impending "large-scale massacre" in El Fasher, the capital of Sudan's North Darfur region, Voice of America reported on April 29. 

Sudan: U.S. Warns of 'Large-Scale Massacre' Ahead of Expected RSF Offensive on El Fasher

Donors pledged over $2.13 billion in humanitarian assistance for Sudan and agreed to strengthen the coordination of regional peace initiatives at an international conference in Paris, France, on the first anniversary of the country's civil war, Reuters reported on April 15. 

Sudan: Donors Raise Over $2B in Humanitarian Aid for First Anniversary of Civil War

Snapshots

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

Assessments

The Mohajer 6 drone is displayed on Aug. 23, 2023, in Tehran, Iran. Through a sort of drone diplomacy, Tehran hopes to rekindle dormant ties with the Sudanese government to aid the latter in its ongoing civil war.

A stronger Sudanese government negotiating hand would result in a power-sharing structure reducing Rapid Support Forces, and by extension, UAE, influence.

Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in southern Khartoum amidst ongoing fighting on June 7, 2023. 

As the war enters its seventh month, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF shows no sign of abating, with greater civilian and humanitarian hardships on the horizon.

In Sudan, Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

Uganda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

An aerial view taken Oct. 29, 2022, of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

The Saudi-UAE Regional Rivalry Intensifies

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

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What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

Energy

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

How will the fighting in Sudan evolve over the coming weeks?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for the Conflict in Sudan

Black smoke covers the sky above Khartoum, Sudan, on April 19, 2023, amid ongoing clashes between rival armed forces in the capital city.

Intense combat in major cities will likely persist, although brief pauses in fighting in the coming days could allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals.

What to Watch for as Violence in Sudan Escalates

Heavy smoke billows above buildings near the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023, amid clashes between the army and paramilitary troops. 

Clashes between the military and Rapid Support Forces will likely persist despite international calls for peace, and could escalate into a sustained nationwide conflict.

Sudan Descends Into Conflict as Army, Paramilitary Face Off

Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: RSF Advances in White Nile and Sennar States

Sudan: Army Rejects Negotiations With RSF Despite Ongoing U.N.-Mediated Talks

South Sudan: Vice President Rejects Election Date and Security Bill

Sudan: U.S. Treasury Blocks UAE Companies' Assets Over Sudan Conflict

Sudan: SAF Confirms Upcoming Naval Base Deal With Russia, Pours Cold Water on Peace Talks

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

Sudan: U.S. Warns of 'Large-Scale Massacre' Ahead of Expected RSF Offensive on El Fasher

Sudan: Donors Raise Over $2B in Humanitarian Aid for First Anniversary of Civil War

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