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How will the fighting in Sudan evolve over the coming weeks?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for the Conflict in Sudan

Assessments

Black smoke covers the sky above Khartoum, Sudan, on April 19, 2023, amid ongoing clashes between rival armed forces in the capital city.

Intense combat in major cities will likely persist, although brief pauses in fighting in the coming days could allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals.

What to Watch for as Violence in Sudan Escalates

Snapshots

Heavy smoke billows above buildings near the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023, amid clashes between the army and paramilitary troops. 

Clashes between the military and Rapid Support Forces will likely persist despite international calls for peace, and could escalate into a sustained nationwide conflict.

Sudan Descends Into Conflict as Army, Paramilitary Face Off

Members of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group are seen in a desert area about 100 kilometers north of Khartoum on Sept. 25, 2019. 

Politics

The deployment of RSF fighters to Khartoum and the military's warnings indicate heightened tensions that could spur a greater conflict and derail Sudan's transition to civilian rule.

In Sudan, a Standoff Between the Army and Paramilitary Forces Risks Renewed Violence

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

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GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Demonstrators march in a protest in the area south of Sudan's capital Khartoum on Oct. 25, 2022, on the first anniversary of the military coup. 

Even if an agreement is reached, civilian resistance groups' refusal to make concessions to the military may continue to fuel violent unrest. 

A Year After the Military Coup, Is Sudan Any Closer to a Power-Sharing Deal?

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A general view shows the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, on Feb. 19, 2022. 

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The unilateral filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) risks setting a dangerous precedent for how the region's increasingly scarce water supplies will be governed.


The Long-Term Water Politics of Ethiopia's Nile River Mega-Dam

Sudanese Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivers a speech at a summit in Nairobi, Kenya, on July 5, 2022. 

The junta’s attempt to distance itself from government formation talks while still maintaining its grip on power risks sowing more distrust among civilian leaders and pro-democracy protesters.

The Military’s Empty Promise to Step Aside Sustains Sudan’s Post-Coup Crisis

Sudanese Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Dec. 8, 2021, in the Maaqil area of northern Nile River state. The Sudanese junta's efforts will likely meet strong resistance from pro-democracy groups and, if passed, accelerate Sudan's isolation from the West and further economic decline.

The junta's efforts will likely meet strong resistance from pro-democracy groups and, if passed, accelerate Sudan's isolation from the West and further economic decline.

Sudan's Junta Seeks to Consolidate Power Via a New Transitional Government

Egypt's Uphill Battle

Sudan’s military chief (left) and prime minister show documents during a deal-signing ceremony in Khartoum on Nov. 21, 2021. 

East African Integration

A key question in determining Sudan’s future stability is whether pro-democracy groups will be satisfied with anything other than full abnegation of military authority. 

The Return of Sudan’s Prime Minister Won’t Pacify Protests

Security

Is a return to civilian rule possible after the military coup?

Essential Geopolitics: What's Next for Sudan?

Sudanese anti-coup protesters gather in the streets of Omdurman on Oct. 30, 2021.  

Stalled talks with the country’s deposed civilian leaders, mass protests and unrelenting international pressure may force the military to reach a political compromise.

Sudan’s Coup Leaders Fight the Rising Tide of Resistance

United States

Residents of Sudan's capital Khartoum reported some artillery fire and warplanes flying above the city one day after the warring Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to a cease-fire, Reuters reported on May 23.

Sudan: Fighting Rages on Despite Truce, U.S. Sanctions Warning

Sudan's warring generals agreed to a new seven-day cease-fire beginning on May 22 to allow the distribution of humanitarian aid and the restoration of essential services, Bloomberg reported on May 20.

Sudan: Army, RSF Agree to New Seven-Day Cease-Fire

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to protect civilians and the movement of humanitarian aid after a week of talks in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, Reuters reported on May 12.

Sudan: Generals Agree to Protect Civilians, But Not to Cease-Fire

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order that paves the way for the government to sanction individuals involved in fighting in Sudan, AP reported on May 4.

Sudan: Biden Signs Executive Order Paving the Way for Sanctions

Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly agreed "in principle" to a seven-day truce, Bloomberg reported on May 3.

Sudan: Army, Paramilitary Group Agree to Seven-Day Cease-Fire, But Fighting Likely to Continue

The United Nations warned that the fighting in Sudan could force 800,000 people to flee, leading to an "unprecedented" regional humanitarian crisis, Reuters reported on May 1.

Sudan: U.N. Warns That War Could Force 800,000 to Flee

Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued on April 26 despite the start of a U.S.-brokered cease-fire at midnight on April 24, Africa News reported April 26.

Sudan: Fighting Resurges Despite Cease-Fire 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to a 72-hour cease-fire starting at midnight local time, CNN reported on April 24.

Sudan: Military, Paramilitary Group Agree to 72-Hour Cease-Fire

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Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

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Countries like the United States, China, Japan, Germany and France took advantage of a lull in fighting in Khartoum over the past two days to evacuate their citizens, Reuters reported on April 24.

Sudan: Countries Race to Evacuate Foreign Nationals

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: Fighting Rages on Despite Truce, U.S. Sanctions Warning

Sudan: Army, RSF Agree to New Seven-Day Cease-Fire

Sudan: Generals Agree to Protect Civilians, But Not to Cease-Fire

Sudan: Biden Signs Executive Order Paving the Way for Sanctions

Sudan: Army, Paramilitary Group Agree to Seven-Day Cease-Fire, But Fighting Likely to Continue

Sudan: U.N. Warns That War Could Force 800,000 to Flee

Sudan: Fighting Resurges Despite Cease-Fire

Sudan: Military, Paramilitary Group Agree to 72-Hour Cease-Fire

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