South Sudan

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Uganda

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Ugandan military chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba said Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan's capital, Juba, since March 8, Reuters reported on March 11.

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms 

During a visit to Egypt, Sudan's Foreign Minister Ali Youssef said the country "will not accept" any recognition of a parallel government, referring to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' agreement with allied political and armed groups to form a rival "government of peace and unity," Voice of America reported on Feb. 24.

Sudan: Army Rejects RSF's Intention To Form Parallel Government With Allies

Russia

Russia and Sudan's Sudanese Armed Forces-led government finalized an agreement regarding the development of a Russian naval facility on the country's Red Sea coast, Sudan Tribune reported on Feb. 12. 

Sudan: Government Finalizes Agreement for Russian Naval Base  

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, plans to form a new government once it captures Sudan's entire capital city, BBC reported on Feb. 10.

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visited the Sudanese Armed Forces' headquarters in Khartoum for the first time since breaking a months-long siege by the rival Rapid Support Forces, Sudan Tribune reported on Jan. 26.

Sudan: Army Chief Visits Recaptured Headquarters, Vows To 'Eradicate' Rapid Support Forces

United States

United Arab Emirates

The United States will impose financial sanctions on the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Reuters reported on Jan. 16, citing three different sources with knowledge on the matter.

Sudan: U.S. To Sanction SAF Leader Following Reported Chemical Weapons Use 

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that members of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and allied militias had committed genocide in Sudan, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Sudan: U.S. Accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of Committing Genocide

Turkey

The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan welcomed Turkish proposals to mediate the dispute between Sudan's SAF-led government and the United Arab Emirates, which is widely seen as providing military support to the SAF's rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Le Monde reported on Jan. 6.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE  

Assessments

Chad

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

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The Geopolitics of Water

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Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

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Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

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Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

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Saudi Arabia

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

The Mohajer 6 drone is displayed on Aug. 23, 2023, in Tehran, Iran. Through a sort of drone diplomacy, Tehran hopes to rekindle dormant ties with the Sudanese government to aid the latter in its ongoing civil war.

A stronger Sudanese government negotiating hand would result in a power-sharing structure reducing Rapid Support Forces, and by extension, UAE, influence.

Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in southern Khartoum amidst ongoing fighting on June 7, 2023. 

As the war enters its seventh month, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF shows no sign of abating, with greater civilian and humanitarian hardships on the horizon.

In Sudan, Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

An aerial view taken Oct. 29, 2022, of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

The Saudi-UAE Regional Rivalry Intensifies

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

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What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

Energy

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

Sudan is a huge country between Northern and Central Africa which, prior to the independence of South Sudan, was the continent's largest country. Its position has long drawn the attention of outsiders, and once facilitated the birth of powerful empires and city-states.     Since declaring independence from the United Kingdom in 1955, Sudan has struggled to manage its expansive territories and ethno-regional divisions. Khartoum, the country's capital, can be viewed as a relatively isolated city-state that must command the vast spaces and people that surround it. Such a mentality helps explain Khartoum's disastrous management of the country's various rebellions and insurrections. Until recently, the country's leadership has preferred to adopt a belligerent approach to dealing with the country's many outstanding conflicts.     Because Sudan's borders do not fully align with its various ethnic groups, its internal ethnic conflicts have fueled regional conflict as well. Ethnic groups in the Darfur region of eastern Sudan spill over into neighboring Chad, driving the two countries to wage proxy warfare against each other for years by arming and financing rebels intent on revolution.     Sudan's proximity to the Middle East &mdash; as well as its cultural and religious makeup &mdash; has allowed it to build ties with powers there. Though this has benefitted Sudan by allowing it to attract investment from companies such as Saudi Arabia, it has also engendered greater scrutiny.

SITUATION REPORTS

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms

Sudan: Army Rejects RSF's Intention To Form Parallel Government With Allies

Sudan: Government Finalizes Agreement for Russian Naval Base

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Sudan: Army Chief Visits Recaptured Headquarters, Vows To 'Eradicate' Rapid Support Forces

Sudan: U.S. To Sanction SAF Leader Following Reported Chemical Weapons Use

Sudan: U.S. Accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of Committing Genocide

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE

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