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Uganda

A Ugandan citizen watches a television broadcast of lawmakers holding a session on an anti-LGBTQ bill in the country's parliament on March 21, 2023. 

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The likely adoption of one of the world's harshest anti-LGBTQ laws could deprive Uganda of critical Western aid and investment by raising the reputational risks of engaging with the country.

Uganda's Anti-LGBTQ Bill Risks Deterring Foreign Aid and Business

Assessments

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U.S. and South Korean flags are waved March 10, 2015, in Seoul, South Korea.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Meets Biden, Lula Pushes Spain on EU Trade

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During the final day of the African tour that also included visits to Cameroon and Benin, French President Emmanuel Macron (left) waves to a crowd through the roof of a car in Bissau with Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. 

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The French president and Russian foreign minister’s separate trips to Central African countries highlight Paris and Moscow's growing interest in the region, with both leaders pledging increased security and investments.

Making Sense of France and Russia’s High-Level Visits to Africa

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Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Tanzania

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

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Uganda's recent suspected use of spyware to target U.S. diplomats highlights a recent trend of small and medium states expanding their SIGINT capabilities.

Essential Geopolitics: The SIGINT Threat and International Espionage

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A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

U.S.-China Relations

The Jihadist Wars

The Nov. 16 bombings mark a significant escalation in terrorist activity in Uganda.

Essential Geopolitics: Coordinated Suicide Attacks Hit Uganda

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A motorist passes a sign for the 8th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party on April 6, 2021, in Havana. The Party will convene April 16-19 against the backdrop of broader Cuban discontent over a deteriorating economic situation,

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Economic Data From China and More Indirect U.S.-Iran Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Germany

Members of the National Guard and the District of Columbia police keep a small group of protesters at bay after thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building following a 'Stop the Steal' rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. Large technology firms' recent content-moderation decisions will add to long-standing debates regarding their influence over online speech, possibly accelerating global regulatory action.

Environment, Science & Technology

Large technology firms' recent content-moderation decisions will add to long-standing debates regarding their influence over online speech, possibly accelerating global regulatory action.

Big Tech's Actions After the U.S. Capitol Siege Renew Debate Over Its Power

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The ruling party’s failure to address the grievances of young Ugandans has paved the way for a pop star’s presidential candidacy, as well as years of political unrest.

Is Uganda's 30-Year Run of Political Stability Nearing an End?

COVID-19

Old Leaders in a New Africa

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

Thailand

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Lebanon

Relatives of the five Israeli victims of a suicide blast that targeted a bus of tourists in Bulgaria mourn in Sofia on Aug. 28, 2012.

Stratfor Threat Lens

Recent history indicates that despite its global networks and ambitions, Iran is a far more formidable threat closer to home. 

Iran Will Find Retaliating Against the U.S. Easier in the Middle East

Iran's Arc of Influence

The Ugandan government locked down the eastern Mubende and Kassanda districts to contain the spread of the Ebola virus, AP reported Oct. 15.

Uganda: Government Imposes Ebola Lockdown

Uganda’s recent Ebola virus outbreak has led the United States to begin screening air passengers traveling from Uganda to the United States, The New York Times reported Oct. 6.

Uganda: Worst Ebola Outbreak in 20 Years Causes Travel Restrictions

Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo extended Operation Shujaa, the joint military offensive launched in late 2021 to combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Reuters reported June 1.

Congo, Uganda: Operation Shujaa Extended in Eastern Congo

Ugandan military authorities announced that Operation Shujaa, the Ugandan joint military operation in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo that targets the militant Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), will end on May 31 unless the two countries sign a new accord, Al Jazeera reported May 17.

Congo: Ugandan Forces to Withdraw Unless Governments Sign New Agreement

Ugandan Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba announced his retirement from the Uganda People's Defence Forces after 28 years of service, according to a March 8 tweet from his official Twitter account.

Uganda: Kainerugaba's Retirement From Military Service Presages Political Ascent

The International Court of Justice ruled that Uganda must pay $325 million in reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo for its role in conflicts in the country's Ituri province, Reuters reported Feb. 9.

Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda: Kampala to Pay Reparations for 1998 War

Rwanda announced that its main border with Uganda, which has remained closed since 2019, will reopen on Jan. 31, BBC reported Jan. 28.

Rwanda, Uganda: Border Reopening Signals Thawing Relations

Uganda reopened schools after nearly two years of shutdowns due to COVID-19, the longest COVID-19 related disruption to education in the world, The Monitor reported Jan. 10.

Uganda: Schools Reopen After Nearly Two Years of Closures 

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Landlocked Uganda is bordered by South Sudan to the north, Kenya to the east, Rwanda and Tanzania to the south, and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the west. The East African country has been recognized as one of the birthplaces of humanity, and its history stretches long into the past. In fact, its recent political trajectory was profoundly influenced by British exploration and colonization at the end of the 19th century. However, its geography and ethnic makeup have had a much deeper effect than British colonialism. For one, the country contains a significant portion of Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest lake and the world’s largest tropical lake. The lake has provided a transport artery for regional residents for hundreds &mdash; if not thousands &mdash; of years, helping facilitate trade and fasten more shared identities in this region as opposed perhaps to other African regions.    The lake's trade benefits do not make up for the country's lack of easy access to an ocean and the international markets beyond, a situation that increases the costs of imports and exports to provide one of Uganda's chief challenges. In order to help manage this issue, Uganda must maintain positive relations with at least one of its ocean-facing neighbors, Kenya and Tanzania. This helps to explain why the Ugandan government has been a firm believer in regional integration into the East African Community. The fostering of closer ties helps bind the countries closer together in terms of political and economic relations. Relatedly, the shared ties and foreign interest in resources and goods of the region have helped spur infrastructure development in recent years, from which Uganda has benefited.    In addition to external challenges, Uganda must manage its diverse internal ethnographic makeup. The country is home to many ethnic and linguistic groups, providing an additional difficulty in governance. The country’s leaders have not always managed this diversity well, with ethnic clashes and outright cleansing in the past. To overcome these issues, the country has more often than not turned to strongman rule to oversee the political system.

The Bwindi Impenetrable Forest National Park in southwestern Uganda, at the borders of Uganda, Congo and Rwanda. 

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SITUATION REPORTS

Uganda: Government Imposes Ebola Lockdown

Uganda: Worst Ebola Outbreak in 20 Years Causes Travel Restrictions

Congo, Uganda: Operation Shujaa Extended in Eastern Congo

Congo: Ugandan Forces to Withdraw Unless Governments Sign New Agreement

Uganda: Kainerugaba's Retirement From Military Service Presages Political Ascent

Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda: Kampala to Pay Reparations for 1998 War

Rwanda, Uganda: Border Reopening Signals Thawing Relations

Uganda: Schools Reopen After Nearly Two Years of Closures

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