Kazakhstan

Economics

Energy

Politics

Tengizchevroil declared force majeure on oil exports and cancelled five cargoes totaling up to 700,000 metric tons through February following a power plant fire that had halted production at Tengiz, the country's largest oil field, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Europe

The European Parliament voted on Jan. 21 to request a legal opinion from the EU Court of Justice on whether the EU-Mercosur trade agreement complies with EU treaties, a step that pauses the ratification process within the bloc, Politico reported the same day.

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

United States

Australia

China

U.S. uranium and rare earths company Energy Fuels agreed to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, or ASM, a rare earths mining and processing company, in a deal worth around $300 million paid entirely with Energy Fuels stock, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 21.

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

South Africa

Iran

Military & Security

Military officials did not inform the South African government of Iran's inclusion in the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval drills held on Jan. 9-16 before Iranian outlet Tehran Times broke the news in late December 2025, News24 reported on Jan. 21 based on South African government sources.

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Indonesia

The value of Indonesia's rupiah fell to its weakest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis after President Prabowo Subianto nominated his nephew, Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Djiwandono, as deputy governor of the country's central bank, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 20.

Indonesia: Central Bank Nomination Stokes Loss of Independence Concerns

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

India

Pakistan

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a brief meeting in New Delhi, where the two signed a 10-year liquefied natural gas energy supply agreement under which the United Arab Emirates will supply India with some $3 billion worth of LNG over 10 years, for a total of 0.5 million metric tons of LNG a year, AP reported on Jan. 19.

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

France

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Jan. 19 that he would invoke article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2026 state budget without a parliamentary vote, reversing an earlier pledge not to do so after negotiations with opposition parties in the National Assembly failed to produce a compromise, Reuters reported the same day. 

France: Government To Push Through 2026 Budget Without Vote

Canada

Following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Jan. 16 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Carney announced at a news conference that Canada had agreed to exchange the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for a scaling quota system, while China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 84% to 15%, AP reported the same day.

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Assessments

Vietnam

A man walks past a billboard for the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam outside the National Convention Center in Hanoi on Jan. 15, 2026. 

The five-yearly event will likely codify a more centralized, security-anchored governing model, while setting ambitious goals for economic growth and administrative reforms, though internal and external pressures will hinder implementation.

Previewing Vietnam's 14th National Party Congress

Greenland

Germany

Finland

Denmark

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

Netherlands

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Global Trade

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Israel

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Venezuela

Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

Tanzania

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Ukraine

Russia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-Iran Relations

Uganda

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Indonesia: Central Bank Nomination Stokes Loss of Independence Concerns

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

France: Government To Push Through 2026 Budget Without Vote

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

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