United States

China

Economics

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods on top of existing tariffs, effective Nov. 1 or sooner, in response to new Chinese export licensing requirements announced the previous day, the president said in an Oct. 10 Truth Social post.

U.S., China: Trump Announces New 100% Tariff on China, Export Controls on Critical Software

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in an Oct. 10 Truth Social post to levy high tariffs or export curbs on China in response to Beijing's recent expansion of rare earth export curbs. 

U.S., China: Trump Threatens Retaliation for China's Expanded Rare Earth Curbs

Mexico

Mexican lawmakers will pause until late November discussions around President Claudia Sheinbaum's proposal to impose up to 50% tariffs on 1,400 imported goods from China and other Asian countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement, Bloomberg reported Oct. 9.  

Mexico: Congress Pauses Discussions on Tariffs Targeting Chinese Goods

Peru

Military & Security

Peru's Congress removed President Dina Boluarte from office and swore in the president of the Congress, Jose Jeri, as the country's new interim president, Reuters reported on Oct. 10.

Peru: Political Instability and Unrest Risks To Remain High Following President's Impeachment

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

The United States is considering issuing an "initial determination" that TP-Link Systems poses a national security threat, which could pave the way for a ban or restriction of the Shenzhen-based company's U.S. operations, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 9.

U.S., China: U.S. Considering Initial Determination That China's TP-Link Poses National Security Threat

Argentina

The United States agreed to provide a $20 billion currency swap line to Argentina, Reuters reported on Oct. 9.

U.S., Argentina: U.S. Support To Limit Financial Volatility Ahead of Election

Azerbaijan

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly apologized to Azerbaijan's leader for downing an Azerbaijani passenger plane in 2024, Reuters reported on Oct. 9.

Russia: Putin's Apology and Trade Plea Reveal Waning Clout

China's Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 9 released licensing requirements for exports by Chinese domestic entities of rare earth processing technologies and for overseas exports (including by foreign companies) for which Chinese rare earths comprise at least 0.1% of the value.

China: New Rare Earth Export Controls Seek To Regulate Foreign Production

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Media

Podcasts

Global Trade

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

What should companies be on the lookout for through the end of 2025 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: Trends From RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Assessments

Despite the proliferation of digital assets, privately issued cryptocurrencies are unlikely to replace central bank-issued money in stable economies because they fail to sufficiently fulfill the core functions of money.

Privately Issued Cryptocurrencies Will Not Replace Fiat Currency

Morocco

Demonstrators lift banners during a youth-led protest demanding reforms to public healthcare and education in Casablanca, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2025.

The government will likely make some, mostly symbolic, concessions to the youth-led protest movement, which already appears to be weakening, but ongoing grievances related to economic inequality will sustain the risk of future mass protests.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

Columns

On Geopolitics

Bangladesh

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Japan

South Korea

Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected LDP leader, on Oct. 4 in Tokyo.

Takaichi will lean into populism, spurring near-term growth but exacerbating long-term economic challenges, while her nationalism will bolster Japan's military and boost U.S. ties even as it strains those with Japan's neighbors.

Japan's Conservative Takaichi Set To Become Next Prime Minister

France

Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrives to deliver a statement at the Hotel Matignon in Paris after submitting his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Oct. 6, 2025. 

Lecornu's resignation leaves President Macron with few good options to ease the ongoing political gridlock over the budget, portending further market volatility, social unrest and, potentially, a fiscal crisis.

French Political Crisis Deepens as Another Prime Minister Resigns

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

The candidates running in the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- (from left to right) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi -- pose after delivering speeches at the kick-off of the campaign in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2025. 

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.

Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Iran

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Trump Announces New 100% Tariff on China, Export Controls on Critical Software

U.S., China: Trump Threatens Retaliation for China's Expanded Rare Earth Curbs

Mexico: Congress Pauses Discussions on Tariffs Targeting Chinese Goods

Peru: Political Instability and Unrest Risks To Remain High Following President's Impeachment

U.S., China: U.S. Considering Initial Determination That China's TP-Link Poses National Security Threat

U.S., Argentina: U.S. Support To Limit Financial Volatility Ahead of Election

Russia: Putin's Apology and Trade Plea Reveal Waning Clout

China: New Rare Earth Export Controls Seek To Regulate Foreign Production

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