Papua New Guinea

Economics

Politics

The Autonomous Region of Bougainville's government, which governs Papua New Guinea’s Bougainville Island, declared it will unilaterally proclaim independence by September 2027, BenarNews reported on March 20.

Papua New Guinea: Bougainville Region Says It Will Proclaim Independence by 2027

Brazil

Brazil's National Congress approved the 2025 budget after a three-month delay amid political tensions and a legal dispute over the executive's payment of budgetary grants to legislators, g1 reported on March 20. 

Brazil: Congress' Late Approval of 2025 Budget Suggests Marginal Improvement in Executive-Legislative Relations

Europe

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

EU leaders, with the exception of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, pledged to continue supporting Ukraine and expressed readiness to ramp up pressure on Russia with additional sanctions during a summit in Brussels, Belgium, Reuters reported on March 20.

EU, Ukraine: Most EU Leaders Stress Continued Support for Ukraine, Delay New Funding Increase

China

India

The Indian government decided not to extend its $23 billion production-linked initiative scheme aimed at incentivizing domestic manufacturing and luring companies away from China, limiting the program to its original 14 pilot sectors, Reuters reported on March 21. 

India: $23B Manufacturing Scheme To Lapse Following Shortcomings and Delays

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 20 invoking the Defense Production Act to spur financing for U.S. production of critical minerals.

U.S.: Executive Order Seeks To Accelerate Critical Mineral Production

Iran

Energy

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Luqing Petrochemical), a small Chinese "teapot" oil refinery in Shandong that operates independently of the Chinese state, and its CEO over buying and refining "hundreds of millions of dollars" worth of Iranian oil, OFAC said in a March 20 press release. 

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in the country's southern Rivers state and suspended Rivers Gov. Siminalayi Fubara and all lawmakers of the Rivers House of Assembly for an initial period of six months, The Punch reported on March 18.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Declares State of Emergency in Rivers, Suspends Fubara

Colombia

Colombian Finance Minister Diego Guevara resigned amid clashes over budget cuts with President Gustavo Petro, El Pais reported March 18.

Colombia: Finance Minister Resignation and Labor Reform Rejection Underscore Petro's Challenging Governability Conditions

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Assessments

Turkey

People wave Turkish national flags as they protest in Istanbul on March 20, 2025, following Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's detention over a corruption probe.

The charismatic Istanbul mayor's detention will likely trigger protests and further undermine his party's ability to challenge Erdogan and the AKP in the 2028 presidential election.

In Turkey, Imamoglu's Arrest Dims the Opposition's Presidential Prospects

Spain

Spanish soldiers sit at tables at a makeshift military base in Valencia, eastern Spain, on Nov. 12, 2024, following deadly floods in the region.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Domestic political constraints will impede Madrid's ability to expand its defense budget, which will expose it to U.S. retaliation and limit Spanish participation in any European deployment to Ukraine.

Despite Recent Pledges, Spain Will Struggle To Boost Military Spending

Media

Podcasts

How will these changes affect European countries?


Essential Geopolitics: The United States' Evolving Relationship With Russia

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa arrives at a briefing at his African National Congress (ANC) party's headquarters in Johannesburg on May 13, 2024.

South Africa will struggle to meet Trump's demands for major foreign and domestic policy changes, which will risk exposing the country to disruptive U.S. economic retaliation, including entity-based sanctions.

Trump Turns Up the Heat on South Africa

Snapshots

Germany

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on March 18, 2025, before a vote on changes to the country's constitutional debt limits.

The historic reform will allow for increased investment and higher defense spending, which will help raise medium-term economic growth in both Germany and the euro area. 

The Economic Impact of Germany's Debt Brake Reform

Lebanon

U.N. Satellite Center cultural heritage analyst Michelle de Gruchy gestures next to a map of Beirut, Lebanon, during a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on monitoring damage to cultural heritage in Lebanon and Gaza on Nov. 25, 2024.

While Lebanon's renewed negotiations with the IMF may yield a draft agreement, a fragmented parliament will likely prevent Lebanon from implementing key economic reforms and unlocking significant aid.

Despite New IMF Negotiations, Lebanon's Economic Crisis Rages On

Columns

On Geopolitics

Canada

Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

Global Trade

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

U.S.-China Relations

Argentina

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

A billboard showing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seen in Baghdad, Iraq, on Oct. 7, 2024.

New U.S.-Iran talks are unlikely to make headway, if they begin at all, due to distrust and a mutual unwillingness to compromise, which could see the U.S. or Israel resort to military strikes on Iran's nuclear program.

Despite Trump's Push for Talks, a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-Iran Relations

Venezuela

The Peace Monument sculpture is seen in front of the PDVSA headquarters in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 2, 2022. 

The return of stricter U.S. sanctions will harm Venezuela's oil and gas industry, undermine its economy and fuel migration, but is unlikely to weaken President Maduro's hold on power in the short to medium term.

What Trump's Policy Shifts Mean for Venezuela

Trump's trade and tariff policies will create new challenges for manufacturers seeking to move their operations closer to the U.S., but broader global dynamics will likely prevent a reversal in nearshoring trends. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: Rising Threats to Nearshoring in the Americas

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

Papua New Guinea: Bougainville Region Says It Will Proclaim Independence by 2027

Brazil: Congress' Late Approval of 2025 Budget Suggests Marginal Improvement in Executive-Legislative Relations

EU, Ukraine: Most EU Leaders Stress Continued Support for Ukraine, Delay New Funding Increase

India: $23B Manufacturing Scheme To Lapse Following Shortcomings and Delays

U.S.: Executive Order Seeks To Accelerate Critical Mineral Production

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Nigeria: President Tinubu Declares State of Emergency in Rivers, Suspends Fubara

Colombia: Finance Minister Resignation and Labor Reform Rejection Underscore Petro's Challenging Governability Conditions

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