Mexico

United States

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump said during an interview with Fox News on Jan. 8 that the United States would soon conduct operations targeting drug cartels on Mexican soil, The Hill reported the same day.

U.S., Mexico: Trump Says U.S. Will Conduct Operations Against Mexican Cartels

China

Taiwan

Taiwan's more pro-China Kuomintang, or KMT, and the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, are in the final stages of talks to revive the Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Culture Forum in order to facilitate economic and cultural exchanges, the South China Morning Post reported on Jan. 9.

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

South Africa

Iran

Russia

South Africa is scheduled to host the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval military exercises off the coast of Simons Town's naval base in the company of Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels on Jan. 9-16, The Independent Online reported on Jan. 9.

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

Americas

Paraguay

Europe

France

Belgium

Poland

Austria

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Global Trade

EU member states gave provisional approval for the European Commission to sign the long-delayed free trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc, Reuters reported Jan. 9.

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

Venezuela

Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington's oversight of Venezuela could last "much longer" than one year, The New York Times reported on Jan. 8.

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Could Oversee Venezuelan Oil for Years

Japan

Environment, Science & Technology

China's regulators have stopped reviewing applications for licenses to export heavy rare earths to Japanese companies in the days since China announced a ban on dual-use goods exports to Japanese military end users on Jan. 6, according to two Chinese exporters interviewed by The Wall Street Journal on Jan. 8.

China, Japan: Beijing Cuts Exports of Heavy Rare Earths to Japan

Uganda

The leader of Uganda's opposition National Unity Platform, or NUP, Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, better known as Bobi Wine, called for a freeze on aid and development financing to Uganda, arguing this aid was funding government repression against the opposition, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 8.

Uganda: Opposition Leader Calls for Aid Freeze Over Government Crackdown Ahead of General Election 

Ethiopia

Lesotho

Somalia

Tanzania

Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi began his annual start-of-the-year tour of Africa, during which he will visit Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Lesotho, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

China, Africa: Wang Yi Kicks Off Annual Africa Tour With Focus on East Africa

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Assessments

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Israel

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

U.S.-Iran Relations

Canada

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Ukraine

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

Syria

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Greenland

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Cyber

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Podcasts

How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Mexico: Trump Says U.S. Will Conduct Operations Against Mexican Cartels

Taiwan: Opposition Seeks To Revive Controversial Forum With China

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Could Oversee Venezuelan Oil for Years

China, Japan: Beijing Cuts Exports of Heavy Rare Earths to Japan

Uganda: Opposition Leader Calls for Aid Freeze Over Government Crackdown Ahead of General Election

China, Africa: Wang Yi Kicks Off Annual Africa Tour With Focus on East Africa

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

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