Energy

While OPEC+ is scheduled to reconvene on April 6, the onus of curbing production will still likely fall on individual energy companies rather than national governments in the short term.

If oil stays below $40 throughout the year, Russia could slide back into recession and see its ongoing economic challenges worsen, sapping the government's popularity.

Riyadh has underestimated just how long Moscow can endure the pain of low oil prices, which could come to its own detriment and that of other oil producers amid growing coronavirus concerns.

With the epidemic's long-term effects on demand still uncertain, Saudi Arabia probably won't convince Russia to agree to alter its cautious approach to production cuts.

Disruptions to supply chains will remain the most obvious impact, but whether this spreads to new targets and geographically, including to the United States, will be important to monitor.

Russia will rein in Saudi desires for dramatic action to reduce production to counter the outbreak's effects on demand. But it will back short-term cuts of a limited duration.