Global Trade

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Mexico

United States

China

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Politics

Trump's trade and tariff policies will create new challenges for manufacturers seeking to move their operations closer to the U.S., but broader global dynamics will likely prevent a reversal in nearshoring trends. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: Rising Threats to Nearshoring in the Americas

Portugal

Over the next several months, RANE will explore the shifting patterns of global trade, and how these impact -- and are impacted by -- the changing global order. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: Introduction

U.S.-China Relations

Europe

United Kingdom

The U.K. flag is flown near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., to honor the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, on Sept. 9, 2022.

While the U.K. will likely avoid major U.S. tariffs, concessions to Trump could undermine London's push to ''reset'' ties with the EU and expand economic engagement with China.

Trump's Tariff Threats Will Complicate the U.K.'s Trade Balancing Act

A truck crosses the Ambassador Bridge from Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, Michigan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

In addition to potentially triggering painful retaliatory tariffs from top U.S. trade partners, the tariffs could upend U.S. supply chains as domestic manufacturers struggle to boost production.

The Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

Snapshots

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

Shipping containers are seen at the Port of Montreal in Montreal, Canada, on Feb. 3, 2025. 

Sustained U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico would undermine North American economic growth and integration, and Trump's apparent willingness to accept these costs raises the risk of his other large tariff proposals being implemented.

The High Stakes of U.S. Tariffs on North American Trade

Colombia

Colombian Foreign Relations Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo (C) looks on with other Colombian officials during a Jan. 26 press conference on a diplomatic dispute with the United States at the San Carlos Palace in Bogota, Colombia. 

The U.S. threat of tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because of a dispute over migrants offers a precedent for future White House threats against countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

What Trump's Sanction and Tariff Threats Mean For Colombia 

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

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