United States

Taiwan

Economics

Global Trade

Military & Security

Taiwanese President William Lai published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov. 26 in which he proposed a $40-billion supplemental defense budget to support U.S. arms procurement and domestic arms production over eight years from 2026-2033, effectively doubling the military's procurement budget, which was $4.28 billion in 2025.

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

China

Europe

Netherlands

Cyber

The Dutch government has temporarily taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia, citing risks to national and European technological security, the Financial Times reported Oct. 12.

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker 

U.S.-China Relations

The European Commission will unveil a new steel sector package on Oct. 7 that introduces lower import quotas and higher tariffs, Reuters reported Oct. 1, citing a closed-door briefing by Industrial Strategy Commissioner Stephane Sejourne to steel associations and unions.

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Energy

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Commission unveiled its proposal for the EU's 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Sept. 19, Reuters reported the same day. The measures propose a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports (LNG) starting Jan. 1, 2027, a year earlier than previously planned.

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

China's Ministry of Commerce on Sept. 5 announced it was placing preliminary anti-dumping duties of 15.6-62.4% on pork imports suitable for human consumption from the European Union, effective Sept. 10, Bloomberg has reported.

China, EU: Beijing Places 16-62% Anti-Dumping Duties on European Pork

Japan

The White House released an executive order late on Sept. 4 with details on the U.S.-Japan trade deal, confirming a 15% tariff on most goods, including automobiles, as well as tariff exemptions for pharmaceuticals and certain natural resources, though the deal only vaguely outlines their investment agreement, with no timeline or clarification on the allocation of profits, Bloomberg has reported.

U.S., Japan: Details of Trade Deal Revealed, but Disputes Still Likely

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Commission on Sept. 5 issued a 2.95 billion euro ($3.5 billion) fine for Google over its advertising technology.

Europe, U.S.: European Commission Fines Google Over Ad-Tech 

United Kingdom

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is in London for his first bilateral meeting with his British counterpart Keir Starmer, The Guardian reported on Sept. 3.

U.K., Spain: Sanchez and Starmer to Sign Strategic Agreement in London

Assessments

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

South Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Malawi

Mozambique

Zambia

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

The recalibration of the European Union's sustainability framework will ease near-term compliance burdens and costs for businesses but preserve long-term uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies

Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.

The key political meeting will fill vacant Party seats and update economic and security goals, offering insights into China's policy priorities and the trajectory of Xi's political purges for the next five years. 

What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Media

Podcasts

Israel-Hamas Conflict

What should companies be on the lookout for through the end of 2025 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: Trends From RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

Global Trade

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Netherlands, China: Dutch Government Seizes Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker

Europe: EU to Cut Import Quotas and Raise Tariffs Under New Steel Package

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

China, EU: Beijing Places 16-62% Anti-Dumping Duties on European Pork

U.S., Japan: Details of Trade Deal Revealed, but Disputes Still Likely

Europe, U.S.: European Commission Fines Google Over Ad-Tech

U.K., Spain: Sanchez and Starmer to Sign Strategic Agreement in London

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