Europe

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Politics

The European Commission is set to adopt the Industrial Accelerator Act on March 4, following weeks of internal debate and last-minute revisions, Politico reported March 3.

EU: Brussels To Present Industrial Accelerator Act With Revisions Expected To Blunt "Made in Europe" Rules

United States

The European Parliament suspended ratification of the EU-U.S. trade agreement, International Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange said Feb. 23.

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Freezes EU-U.S. Trade Deal Ratification Amid Renewed Tariff Uncertainty

Military & Security

The European Parliament's trade committee agreed on a common position on the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement, backing amendments ahead of a plenary vote, Politico reported Feb. 10. 

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Backs Safeguards in EU-U.S. Tariff Deal, Paving Way for Plenary Vote

Americas

Paraguay

France

Belgium

Poland

Austria

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

EU member states gave provisional approval for the European Commission to sign the long-delayed free trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc, Reuters reported Jan. 9.

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

China

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components on Dec. 22, deeming that they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security, Reuters reported Dec. 23.

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones 

Indonesia

Indonesian officials said Jakarta and Washington had resolved all substantive issues in bilateral tariff talks and planned to formally sign a trade agreement in late January during a visit by President Prabowo Subianto to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 23. 

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On Dec. 22, the European Council officially extended the European Union's sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026, the institution announced. 

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov. 26 in which he proposed a $40-billion supplemental defense budget to support U.S. arms procurement and domestic arms production over eight years from 2026-2033, effectively doubling the military's procurement budget, which was $4.28 billion in 2025.

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Snapshots

Iran

Nepal

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

U.S.-Iran Relations

Assessments

Bahrain

Israel

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Japan

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.

The Japanese prime minister may offer economic and security concessions during her upcoming summit with the U.S. president to avoid direct entanglement in the Iran conflict while preserving the relationship with Washington.

Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit

A woman holds a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranians protest against attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. 

Depending on the duration of maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the escalating conflict is set to subject European economies to significant energy market volatility.

European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Canada

Mexico

South Korea

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

India

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

Greenland

Germany

Finland

Denmark

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

Netherlands

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Pakistan

Cyber

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Global Trade

SITUATION REPORTS

EU: Brussels To Present Industrial Accelerator Act With Revisions Expected To Blunt "Made in Europe" Rules

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Freezes EU-U.S. Trade Deal Ratification Amid Renewed Tariff Uncertainty

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Backs Safeguards in EU-U.S. Tariff Deal, Paving Way for Plenary Vote

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones

Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing

EU: Brussels Extends Sanctions on Russia for Further 6 Months

Taiwan: Proposed $40 Billion Arms Budget Could Help Seal U.S. Trade Deal

Forecasts

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