Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Israel's security Cabinet voted to approve the three-phase ceasefire deal with Hamas, with the full Cabinet set to vote on Jan. 18, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 17. 

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

Israeli, Arab and U.S. officials said Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas had agreed in principle to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported on Jan 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Economics

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics said around 155,000 Palestinians, or about 6% of the total population, have been displaced or killed in the course of the Israel-Hamas war since October 2023, Reuters reported on Jan. 1. 

Gaza, Israel: New Data on Gaza's Sinking Population Likely To Fuel Genocide Claims

Yemen

The Israeli Air Force struck several Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen on Dec. 26, including the Sanaa airport, the al-Dailami Air Base and a power plant in Hodeidah, Al Jazeera reported the same day.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Lebanon

Israeli forces advanced further into southern Lebanon's Wadi al-Hujeir area on Dec. 26, conducting sweeping operations and deploying heavy machine gun fire before retreating later to Wadi al-Slouki, according to a same-day report by Anadolu Agency.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Hamas conceded to two major Israeli demands in ceasefire negotiations that would enable the Israeli military to remain in Gaza temporarily after the ceasefire takes effect, and Hamas also provided a list of hostages that it would release under the ceasefire, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 11. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Concedes to Two Major Israeli Demands in Latest Ceasefire Proposal

United States

Qatar

Steve Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy to the Middle East, held discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani separately in late November in a push for a Gaza ceasefire ahead of Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, Reuters reported Dec. 4.

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

The rival Palestinian groups Hamas and Fatah agreed to form a committee of 12-15 politically independent technocrats to govern the Gaza Strip once the Israel-Hamas war ends, The Guardian reported on Dec. 3 following talks between the two groups in Egypt. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree To Form Committee to Run Post-War Gaza

Media

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

Syria

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds a press conference in Doha on Jan. 15, 2025, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Despite Qatar's success in getting Hamas to accept a ceasefire with Israel, Trump will remain critical of Doha's support for Islamist movements in the region.

For Qatar, the Gaza Ceasefire Will Ease U.S. Pressure -- For Now

Indonesia

Germany

France

India

The West Front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 17 in Washington. Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. president on Jan. 20.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza Ceasefire, Trump's Inauguration

Egypt

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

While it may de-escalate the current war, the deal does not address all drivers of conflict between Hamas and Israel, nor does it outline a post-war strategy for Gaza, portending a gradual return to violence.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Cyber

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Iran

Iraq

Turkey

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks to journalists in Riyadh before the first meeting of Saudi Arabia's new global alliance to push for Palestinian statehood on Oct. 30, 2024. 

Protracted regional conflicts risk undermining the kingdom's efforts to diversify its oil-reliant economy, normalize ties with Israel, and balance between Iran and its opponents. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Gaza, Israel: New Data on Gaza's Sinking Population Likely To Fuel Genocide Claims

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Concedes to Two Major Israeli Demands in Latest Ceasefire Proposal

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree To Form Committee to Run Post-War Gaza

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