Recent U.S. actions against Iran are allowing Israel to ease off its own threats. But it's only a matter of time until a less hawkish U.S. strategy reinstates Israel’s place as the most likely actor to strike Tehran and potentially spur a regional conflict.
By Ryan Bohl
As the world enters a new year, the risk of renewed tensions between Tehran and its enemies won't be far away.
Stratfor Chief Security Officer Fred Burton and Middle East and North Africa analyst Ryan Bohl sit down in the latest edition of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast to look ahead at Israel's third election in under a year.
As the country prepares to hold its third election in under a year, Israeli leaders and voters will have another shot at forming a government. The question is who among them will finally break the impasse, and why.
Regardless of how many more rounds of elections and caretaker governments Israel might endure in 2020, its military will continue to take strident action against security threats posed by Iran and its nuclear program.
A White House policy decision puts Israel a step closer to annexing land and settlements to its east. Doing so, however, would risk setting back its recent regional outreach.
Hamas stayed on the sidelines of the recent violence between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the result of an apparent strategic shift for both the country and Gaza's rulers.
With no real land to give its neighbors in exchange for better relations, Israel is hoping a transactional approach to diplomacy will finally earn it the recognition it craves.
The current bout of fighting could spark the largest military exchange between Gaza and Israel since 2014.
Mounting nationalist sentiment will press Israeli leaders to extend more control over Palestinian territory, even if it means jeopardizing the diplomatic relationships critical to Israel's peace and prosperity.
