Libya

Libya's House of Representatives on Dec. 22 announced that presidential elections planned for Dec. 24 could not proceed as scheduled, Reuters reported. 

Libya: Electoral Commission Proposes One-Month Election Delay

The Libyan Civil War

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

The Pulse of Political Islam

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Ankara to mend relations between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, Daily Sabah reported Nov. 24.

UAE, Turkey: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Visits Turkish President in Ankara

The Syrian Civil War

Security

Turkey's Resurgence

Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, the son of overthrown Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, registered as a candidate for Libya’s Dec. 24 presidential election, Reuters reported Nov. 15.

Libya: Son of Deposed Ruler Registers for Presidential Election

During a recent speech, Libyan Prime Minister Albdulhamid Dbeibeh said foreign mercenaries tried to block a plane with a government delegation from landing in Sirte, a region controlled by Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army, the Libya Observer reported April 29. 

Libya: Mercenaries Tried to Block Government Delegation From Sirte

The U.N.-backed Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) has elected Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah, a businessman from Western Libya, to serve as prime minister of Libya’s new transitional government, AFP reported Feb. 5.

Libya: Country Forms Transitional Government Ahead of Planned Elections

U.N.-led peace talks between Libya’s rivals have yielded a preliminary agreement on a roadmap to hold “free, fair, inclusive and credible” presidential and parliamentary elections in the country within 18 months, Reuters reported Nov. 11. 

Libya: Rivals Agree to Hold Elections in 18 months

The United Nations said that a “permanent cease-fire in all areas of Libya” had been signed between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA).

 Libya: U.N. Negotiations Yield Peace Agreement

Russia

Libya’s U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has secured complete control of Tripoli after seizing the capital city’s international airport from Khalifa Hifter’s rebel Libyan National Army (LNA), Al Jazeera reported June 4.

Libya: Government Seizes Tripoli International Airport From Rebel Forces

The fall of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi shattered the country he left behind. No longer is there a central government but three competing ones, each with its own militia to support its claim to power. Caught in the crossfire of the conflict stands Libya’s oil industry, over which rival factions compete to secure the country’s largest source of revenue. There’s no question that the road to reconciliation will be long; the only question is how violent it will be.

The fall of Moammar Gadhafi shattered the Libya he left behind.

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Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

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A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

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Fathi Bashagha delivers a speech in Tripoli, Libya, after east-based lawmakers named him as the head of a new interim government on Feb. 10, 2022.

The approval of a new regime by east-based lawmakers could renew violence in Tripoli and disrupt the energy-rich nation’s crucial oil and gas exports. 


The Risks of Libya’s Return to Two Governments

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South Africa

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Iran

A Ukrainian soldier on the front line of the Donbas conflict on Dec. 12, 2021, in Zolote, Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine tensions will continue to climb next week as the Russian-occupied Donbas separatist republics evacuate their territory and repeat dubious claims that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Soar Even Higher, a Possible U.S.-Iran Nuclear Breakthrough

The Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

A group of activists protest against the postponement of Libya’s presidential election in Tripoli's Martyrs Square on Dec. 25, 2021.  

Postponing the presidential election will resolve neither the disputes over how to hold the ballot nor the controversy surrounding the top candidates, portending more violence and division.

A Delayed Vote Reflects the Scars of Libya’s Civil War

Libyan Prime Minister-designate Abdul Hamid Dbeibah addresses lawmakers during the first reunited parliamentarian session on March 9, 2021, in the coastal city of Sirte, east of the Libyan capital of Tripoli.

The Civil War in Libya

Unity will remain in name only as the House of Representatives, Libyan National Army, various militias and other institutions continue to wield significant power regionally.

Libya's New Government of National Unity Will Struggle to Unify the Country

Fayez al-Sarraj, the prime minister of Libya's U.N.-recognized GNA, attends a military parade marking the 69th anniversary of Libyan independence Dec. 24, 2020, in the capital of Tripoli. Those set to lose from a peace deal, including Khalifa Hifter and al-Sarraj, will not accept a deal that undermines their gains.

Those set to lose from a peace deal, including Khalifa Hifter and Fayez al-Sarraj, will not accept a deal that undermines their gains.

As Libya's Peace Process Reaches a Critical Stage, Spoilers Line up

Snapshots

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Qatar’s defense minister (center) waits for the arrival of his Turkish counterpart to meet with the prime minister of Libya’s U.N.-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli on Aug. 17, 2020. 

The easing of the Qatar blockade may help resolve the current GCC crisis, but it won't unite Arab Gulf states’ divergent regional policies.

A Potential Breakthrough in Qatar Paves the Way for GCC Reconciliation 

The Yemen Civil War

Iran's Arc of Influence

Yemen

An American-made F-35 jet takes part in an air defense exercise in Eilat, Israel, on Nov. 11, 2019. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

While it’s unlikely to upend the deal, the Biden administration may restrict the use of American weapons in Abu Dhabi’s controversial regional operations.

After Surviving a Senate Vote, the U.S.-UAE Arms Deal Faces a New White House 

Iraq

The OPEC logo is seen at the group’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on May 24, 2017.

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia's Internal Struggle

Internal disputes among the world’s oil producers next year could leave the global market oversupplied and prices relatively low.

OPEC+ Production Cuts Meet Another COVID-19 Reality Check 

COVID-19

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Representatives of Libya's rival administrations take part in a meeting in Temara, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2020. 

The fractured dynamics of the country’s ongoing civil war will remain significant obstacles to a comprehensive political settlement and lasting peace.

The Promise and Peril of Libya’s New Cease-Fire

Israel

For Israel, the benefits of a stronger regional alliance to counter Iran will likely outweigh the cons of granting the UAE previously denied access to advanced weaponry.

Despite a Rocky Start, UAE-Israeli Defense Ties Are Poised to Grow 

Israel's Survival Strategy

Fighters aligned with Libya's internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) patrol a village located halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi on July 20, 2020.

The deployment of Egyptian troops to eastern Libya would raise the risk of a confrontation with rival Turkish forces, thus drawing Cairo deeper into Libya's increasingly insoluble civil war. 

Egypt Readies to Intervene in Libya as Hifter Struggles 

United Kingdom

Potential changes to the way Libya's oil revenue and exports are shared could have significant ramifications for the country's sovereignty by establishing de facto splits in its financial system. 

The Libyan Civil War

SITUATION REPORTS

Libya: Electoral Commission Proposes One-Month Election Delay

UAE, Turkey: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Visits Turkish President in Ankara

Libya: Son of Deposed Ruler Registers for Presidential Election

Libya: Mercenaries Tried to Block Government Delegation From Sirte

Libya: Country Forms Transitional Government Ahead of Planned Elections

Libya: Rivals Agree to Hold Elections in 18 months

Libya: U.N. Negotiations Yield Peace Agreement

Libya: Government Seizes Tripoli International Airport From Rebel Forces

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