The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

With Armenia focused on domestic threats and Azerbaijan wary of Russian retaliation, keeping the peace in Nagorno-Karabakh is currently everyone’s interest.

Armenia’s intensifying political crisis and the still-volatile situation in Nagorno-Karabakh leave the door open for future rounds of violence.

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Rodger Baker, senior vice president of strategic analysis for Stratfor and RANE, looks deeper at the concept of "squeezed states" with Dr. Zurab Khonelidze, the rector of Sokhumi State University, located in the South Caucasus nation of Georgia.

While it could spur a new cycle of elevated conflict, the recent military escalation is unlikely to alter the established dynamics of Armenia and Azerbaijan's decades-old conflict.

Moscow and Yerevan are age-old allies, but a recent frosty turn in their relationship could open the door for other powers to strengthen their ties with Armenia.

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is visiting the region with an eye to obtaining regional support for the United States' moves against Moscow and Tehran.

Armenia will remain allies with Russia regardless of who is in power, but the demonstrations are still a cause for concern in Moscow.

Suspicions and simmering conflicts complicate efforts to expand infrastructure and trade in the mountainous region between Asia and Europe.

Until now, the military and economic blocs meant to bind former Soviet states to Moscow haven’t quite hit their stride. But the region is changing, perhaps to the Kremlin's advantage.

Russia could allow the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh to escalate if it would serve its purposes.