Armenia

Azerbaijan

Politics

Military & Security

Instability in Central Asia

The first meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian commission on border delimitation and border security is scheduled to take place in Moscow on May 16-17, TASS reported May 12.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Bilateral Border Commission to Hold First Meeting in Moscow

Security

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev called for swift negotiations to take place on a peace treaty with Armenia, but he said Yerevan would have to renounce any territorial claims against Azerbaijan, Reuters reported April 22.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Azerbaijani President Makes Demands as Peace Talks Approach

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev agreed to instruct their foreign ministers to begin preparations for peace talks and to set up a bilateral border demarcation commission by the end of April, Reuters reported April 7.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Agree to Peace Talks, Establish Border Demarcation Commission

Russia

Azerbaijani forces crossed the line of contact with Armenia-backed authorities of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic, capturing the village of Parukh and forcing women and children from the nearby village of Khramort to evacuate for security reasons, The Jerusalem Post reported March 25.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Armenia Decries Azerbaijani 'Invasion' of Two Villages in Nagorno-Karabakh

Turkey

Armenian President Armen Sarkissian, the last high-ranking official not directly appointed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, unexpectedly tendered his resignation, Eurasianet reported Jan. 24.

Armenia: Presidential Resignation Fuels Speculation of Forthcoming Compromises

Russia's Internal Struggle

Armenia and Turkey’s special envoys met in Moscow to discuss normalizing relations after more than a decade since their last meeting in 2009, and both envoys said they will continue to discuss normalization without preconditions after the meeting, Eurasianet reported Jan. 14.

Armenia, Turkey: Countries Hold First Normalization Talks in Moscow 

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a one-on-one meeting during which they agreed to begin restoring bilateral communications infrastructure -- including a rail link with border and customs controls -- as a confidence-building measure, Bloomberg reported Dec. 15.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Agree to Restore Communications Infrastructure

United States

Economics

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkey and Armenia will mutually appoint special envoys to discuss steps to normalize ties, adding that the countries will also restart charter flights between the cities of Istanbul and Yerevan, Eurasianet reported Dec. 14.

Armenia, Turkey: Governments Pledge to Appoint Envoys to Normalize Relations

Turkey's Resurgence

Of all the conflicts left over from the Cold War, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may be the most enduring. Control of this territory, strategically located in the Caucasus, has changed hands throughout history, but it became a de facto independent republic in the 1990s, when Armenian forces defeated the Azerbaijani forces that until then had governed it. Azerbaijan wants it back. The Armenians want to keep the status quo. And Russia tries to arbitrate between the two. The web of political relationships and alliances in the Caucasus — relationships that involve not just Russia but also Turkey, Iran and the West — will prevent the conflict’s resolution.

Of all the conflicts left over from the Cold War, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may be the most enduring.

Iran

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Assessments

An Azeri soldier attaches Azerbaijan’s national flag to a tower near a town in Nagorno-Karabakh on Nov. 26, 2020. 

The latest cease-fire violations reflect Azerbaijan’s capacity to continue escalating the conflict with relative ease due to its superior negotiating leverage and military power.

In Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan's Seizure of Russia-Protected Territory Bodes Ill for Armenia

Guidance

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

North Korea

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

India

Zhang Xiaoming (C), Executive Deputy Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, at the end of a State Council press conference on Hong Kong electoral reform March 12, 2021, in Beijing.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Mainland Finalizes Hong Kong Reforms, Biden Reviews North Korea Policy

Snapshots

Sub-Saharan Africa

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addresses his supporters gathered on Republic Square in downtown Yerevan, Armenia, on Feb. 25, 2021. Pashinyan called on the army to fulfill its duty and obey the people after the military called for him to resign. 

Despite widespread outrage over the terms of last year’s peace deal with Azerbaijan, Armenia's intensifying political crisis is unlikely to spark a resumption of war.

In Armenia, Anger Over Nagorno-Karabakh Comes to a Head

An aerial view shows the ruins of a village on Jan. 5, 2021, in an area of Nagorno-Karabakh that was recaptured by Azerbaijan in October 2020.

With Armenia focused on domestic threats and Azerbaijan wary of Russian retaliation, keeping the peace in Nagorno-Karabakh is currently everyone’s interest.

Despite Violations, the Azeri-Armenian Cease-Fire Will Hold -- For Now

Armenians gather in Yerevan on Nov. 11, 2020, to protest against their country’s agreement to end fighting with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armenia’s intensifying political crisis and the still-volatile situation in Nagorno-Karabakh leave the door open for future rounds of violence. 

A Cease-Fire Will Only Freeze Azerbaijan and Armenia’s Fight

Armenian soldiers fire artillery shells toward Azeri forces in the town of Martakert, located in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, on April 3, 2016. 

While it could spur a new cycle of elevated conflict, the recent military escalation is unlikely to alter the established dynamics of Armenia and Azerbaijan's decades-old conflict. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan Intensify Their Border Battle

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has reiterated his desire to maintain close ties with Russia, but that has not stopped a rift from forming.

Moscow and Yerevan are age-old allies, but a recent frosty turn in their relationship could open the door for other powers to strengthen their ties with Armenia.

What the Chill in Russian-Armenian Relations Means

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is visiting the region with an eye to obtaining regional support for the United States' moves against Moscow and Tehran.

Azerbaijan, Armenia: Washington Turns Its Attention to the South Caucasus

Despite police action, the crackdown on protests in Armenia has been less harsh this time around.

Armenia will remain allies with Russia regardless of who is in power, but the demonstrations are still a cause for concern in Moscow.  

What Armenia's Protests Mean for Russia

Georgia

The Caucasus countries of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia serve as trade and transit corridors to and between neighboring Russia, Iran and Turkey and could eventually connect markets in Europe and China.

Energy

Social Issues

Crossing Borders

Suspicions and simmering conflicts complicate efforts to expand infrastructure and trade in the mountainous region between Asia and Europe.

In the Caucasus, Competition Will Limit Cooperation

The Politics of Pipelines

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

CSTO leaders

Until now, the military and economic blocs meant to bind former Soviet states to Moscow haven’t quite hit their stride. But the region is changing, perhaps to the Kremlin's advantage.

Russia Regains Its Momentum Across Eurasia

In the Caucasus, Moscow Manages a Simmering Dispute

Russia could allow the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh to escalate if it would serve its purposes.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Bilateral Border Commission to Hold First Meeting in Moscow

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Azerbaijani President Makes Demands as Peace Talks Approach

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Agree to Peace Talks, Establish Border Demarcation Commission

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Armenia Decries Azerbaijani 'Invasion' of Two Villages in Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia: Presidential Resignation Fuels Speculation of Forthcoming Compromises

Armenia, Turkey: Countries Hold First Normalization Talks in Moscow

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Agree to Restore Communications Infrastructure

Armenia, Turkey: Governments Pledge to Appoint Envoys to Normalize Relations

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