The main factors that have traditionally kept Israel isolated in the Muslim world are changing, opening the door for states interested in enhanced trade and diplomatic ties to join the UAE and explore normalization.
By Ryan Bohl
As the pandemic continues to sap demand, upticks in OPEC+ supply will undermine efforts to rapidly balance the global market and drain excess inventories.
By Greg Priddy
By cutting its Citizens' Account Program welfare program, Riyadh risks undermining necessary economic reforms and creating even more subsidies to placate its populace.
Riyadh will try to stimulate its tourism industry to curb the blow of this year's likely canceled pilgrimages. But as the pandemic keeps Muslims home, a sustained recovery is unlikely.
By Ryan Bohl
In this Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks with Stratfor's Director, Global Energy and Middle East, Greg Priddy about the Saudi currency peg.
Facing severe budgetary strain due to COVID-19 and low oil prices, Riyadh will likely reduce its arms purchases, while avoiding spending cuts that could impede its internal security or the development of its defense sector.
By Ryan Bohl
Given the faster-than-expected recovery in oil prices, OPEC and its allies will reportedly consider a Saudi-Russian compromise to only briefly delay the tapering of current cuts.
The current peg of Saudi riyals to the U.S. dollar is not in immediate jeopardy, but a new normal of lower oil prices will likely force the kingdom to devalue its currency in the next five years.
By Greg Priddy
By slashing demand for foreign labor, the global economic fallout from COVID-19 will deprive Gulf countries of some of the highly skilled workers needed to grow and diversify their oil-dependent economies.
While nationalism, economic control and the security forces will work for the government for a while, the longer austerity persists, the less effective they will prove.
By Ryan Bohl
