The Saudi Survival Strategy

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne explains the evolving relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia and how Iran will play between both countries in 2020.

As the world enters a new year, the risk of renewed tensions between Tehran and its enemies won't be far away.

With Iran a bigger threat than the Houthis, Riyadh is shifting its Yemen strategy to calm the war to its south.

Driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's desire for a "big win," Saudi Arabia's push to sell off a tiny slice of its state-run oil company has been a frantic series of compromises.

The shadow of Jamal Khashoggi isn't hanging over the desert kingdom's investors like last year. Even so, the Iranian threat, muddled policies and more are scaring away many investors from Riyadh's Vision 2030 economic plan.

Major Lebanese patrons like Iran and its top rivals could be forced to update their positions if the country's escalating unrest succeeds in forcing real political change.

So long as Mohammed bin Salman calls the shots in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom will confront the specter of the murdered journalist everywhere it turns.

To deter future attacks on its vital oil sector, Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly weighing whether its next move should be a step closer, or further, from Iran.

Still smarting from Tehran's attacks on its oil facilities two weeks ago, Riyadh finds itself between a rock and a hard place in deciding how to respond.