El Salvador

Military & Security

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly voted to extend the country's anti-gang emergency decree for another 30 days at the request of President Nayib Bukele, The Washington Post reported May 25.

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

Chile

Chilean forestry worker Segundo Catril Neculqueo was shot and killed during an armed attack on a van transporting workers to their worksite in the country's southern Bio Bio region, regional newspaper Bio Bio reported May 24.

Chile: Forestry Worker Killed in Attack

Colombia

Colombian presidential candidate Gustavo Petro canceled events on May 2 in the country's northwestern coffee-growing region after his security team became aware of a criminal gang's plan to assassinate him, Bloomberg reported May 5.

Colombia: Presidential Candidate Cancels Events Due to Assassination Plan

Colombian Peace Process

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly extended the country's state of emergency by an additional 30 days, Deutsche Welle reported April 24.

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

Panama

United States

Social Issues

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Crossing Borders

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas began a two-day trip to Panama City to discuss coordinated efforts to curb the flow of illegal migration with representatives from 20 regional countries, Deutsche Welle reported April 19.

U.S., Panama: Meeting Pushes for Coordinated Control of Illegal Migration

Politics

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly voted to quadruple the sentences for gang-related crimes, Reuters reported March 30.

El Salvador: Reform Drastically Increases Prison Time for Gang Members

Economics

Student groups led thousands of students and some other demonstrators in Chile's capital of Santiago to demand a higher food stipend, marking the first major protest under recently inaugurated leftist Chilean President Gabriel Boric, a former student leader himself, Bio Bio reported March 25.

Chile: Students Protesters Demand Increased Food Stipend

The Salvadoran government declared a state of emergency after a spike in gang violence on March 26 left at least 62 people dead, El Faro reported March 27.

El Salvador: Government Declares State Of Emergency After Sharp Rise in Homicides

Illicit drugs and mass migration — these are two of the most pressing security challenges for the United States when it comes to Latin America. Washington has struggled to stem the flow of both across U.S. borders for years, and it will continue to do so for years to come. Its efforts in that regard will, for better or worse, define its relationships with countries as close as Mexico and as far as Colombia — not to mention several in between, from which most U.S.-bound immigrants originate.

Illicit drugs and mass migration are two of the most pressing security challenges in Latin America.

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Venezuela

The Importance of Mexico

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Assessments

Guidance

Centrist candidate Federico Gutierrez (right) speaks next to left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro (left) in Bogota on May 23, 2022, during the last presidential debate before Colombians begin casting ballots to elect their next leader. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Whoever wins the upcoming vote will be tasked with mitigating widespread calls for systemic change, including transitioning to clean energy and enacting complex tax reforms. 

The Challenges Facing Colombia's Next President

Environmental Issues

Snapshots

Peru

Demonstrators block a section of the Pan-American highway during a partial strike of cargo and passenger carriers in Ica, southern Peru, on April 4, 2022.

Mounting anger over rising fuel and food prices will push the government to introduce subsidies, which it will likely seek to pay for by raising taxes on mining firms.

How Inflation-Induced Unrest Will Impact Peru's Political and Business Climate

Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

Nicaragua

China

Taiwan

A video grab shows Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Denis Moncada announcing the country’s diplomatic split from Taiwan on Dec. 9, 2021. 

The move shows how the U.S.’s sanctions-heavy, anti-corruption drive in Central America risks pushing countries into China’s open arms. 

What to Make of Nicaragua’s Diplomatic Break From Taiwan

The New Silk Road

U.S.-China Relations

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on July 1, 2021, at the National Palace in Mexico City during a commemoration of the third year of his victory in Mexico's 2018 presidential election. His unwillingness to adjust course will ensure that insecurity remains pervasive.

Stratfor Threat Lens

The Mexican president's unwillingness to adjust course will ensure that insecurity remains pervasive.

Three Years in, Lopez Obrador's Cartel Strategy Has Not Succeeded in Mexico

The scene of cartel killings on Jan. 11, 2019, in Bavispe, Sonora. Despite pandemic-related changes in the last 18 months, the strategic forces behind cartel violence in Mexico have changed very little since 2020.

Despite pandemic-related changes in the last 18 months, the strategic forces behind cartel violence in Mexico have changed very little since 2020.

Tracking Mexico's Cartels in 2021

Protesters gather in the streets of Bogota, Colombia, on July 20, 2021. 

By shifting the tax burden onto corporations, the updated draft will likely be far less controversial than its predecessor, giving the bill an easier path through Congress. 

Amid Protests, Colombia Proposes a More Palatable Tax Reform

Haiti

Haitian security forces look for evidence outside of President Jovenel Moise’s residence in Port-au-Prince following his assassination on July 7, 2021. 

The further deterioration of their country’s economy and security environment will push more Haitians to seek refuge in neighboring countries and France.

The Assassination of Haiti’s President Portends a Migrant Surge 

View of a cannabis plant planted by the Mexican Cannabis Movement on March 10, 2021, in front of the Mexican Senate in Mexico City. Legalization will not lessen crime, rampant corruption and cartel violence in Mexico, but could lead to looser marijuana laws in the United States.

Legalization will not lessen crime, rampant corruption and cartel violence in Mexico, but could lead to looser marijuana laws in the United States.

The Impact of Mexican Cannabis Legalization

Soldiers stand guard as an alleged Gulf Cartel leader is presented to the media May 25, 2014, at the hangar of the Attorney General's office at Benito Juarez International Airport in Mexico City. The arrest of Evaristo Cruz Sanchez, aka "El Vaquero," could increase violence in northeastern Mexico as other cartels capitalize on the opportunity to seize turf.

The arrest of Evaristo Cruz Sanchez, aka "El Vaquero," could increase violence in northeastern Mexico as other cartels capitalize on the opportunity to seize turf.

Mexican Authorities Arrest Alleged Leader of Gulf Cartel in Tamaulipas State

Columns

On Security

Signs mark the boundary between the United States and Mexico over the Rio Grande on Aug. 6, 2008, near Laredo, Texas.

U.S.-based individuals and companies should fear hostile cyberattacks from Mexican criminal groups more than violent attacks in U.S. streets.

Security Threats in the United States From Mexican Organized Crime

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a press conference at a hotel in San Salvador on Feb. 28, 2021. 

His party's new legislative majority will enable President Bukele to appoint Supreme Court justices and pass sweeping constitutional reforms.

Security Challenges in Latin America

SITUATION REPORTS

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

Chile: Forestry Worker Killed in Attack

Colombia: Presidential Candidate Cancels Events Due to Assassination Plan

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

U.S., Panama: Meeting Pushes for Coordinated Control of Illegal Migration

El Salvador: Reform Drastically Increases Prison Time for Gang Members

Chile: Students Protesters Demand Increased Food Stipend

El Salvador: Government Declares State Of Emergency After Sharp Rise in Homicides

Forecasts

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