South America: Split Decisions on Trade

While it may condemn Western efforts to financially alienate Russia, Brasilia is unlikely to help Moscow build an alternative global payments system.

With fiscal reforms unlikely ahead of next year’s election, South America's largest economy risks missing out on an expected post-pandemic surge of foreign investment.

Avoiding a full-fledged crisis will hinge on whether the Argentine government’s can produce a credible economic growth plan and reach a debt restructuring deal with bondholders.

While it has yet to fully abandon the South American trade bloc, Argentina's withdrawal from current negotiations will still cripple Mercosur's ability to ink future deals.

After four years under President Mauricio Macri’s conservative leadership, the new administration in Buenos Aires will pursue state intervention and protectionist policies in an attempt to resurrect the country’s moribund economy.

Both blocs will require unanimous consent for ratification. But securing yes votes from all member states will be a tall order.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's efforts to lift trade restrictions could fall short of what he originally envisioned.

Resistance among Brazilian business interests and lawmakers could short-circuit the president's moves to partner with Washington at China's expense.

Recent data show that a hoped-for economic recovery could be slow to manifest, a scenario that would decrease the president's re-election chances and possibly enable a populist government to return.

Anger at crime and corruption catapulted right-wing lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro to victory in October. As he prepares to take office on Jan. 1, 2019, here's a look back at Brazil's -- and Bolsonaro's -- past 12 months.