Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov denied a report by Russian state-owned daily Izvestia suggesting that if paused Russian-Ukrainian negotiations resumed, Russia would not discuss returning the Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Ukraine, RBC reported June 8.

Ukraine: Kremlin Leaves Possibility of Return of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya Regions Open

The Ukraine Conflict

Europe

France

Germany

Hungary

Energy

The European Union is drafting a ban on Russian oil imports that could be proposed after the April 24 second round of France's presidential election, The New York Times reported April 14, citing EU officials.

EU: Phased Russian Oil Ban Proposal Possible After French Presidential Election

The Politics of Pipelines

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Military & Security

Politics

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

The second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Belarus amid ongoing war and did not result in a cease-fire agreement, ABC reported March 3.

Russia, Ukraine: Second Round of Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks End Without Cease-fire

Security

Indonesia

India

Economics

Instability in Central Asia

India's Own Worst Enemy

India asked Indonesia to increase its palm oil exports to alleviate the country's cooking oil shortage, as the war in Ukraine has halted shipments of Ukrainian sunflower oil and a drought in South America has reduced the region's production of soy oil, Reuters reported March 2.

Indonesia: Cooking Oil Shortages Expose Region to Supply Chain Uncertainty

Supply Chains

Environment, Science & Technology

Russian internet and media watchdog Roskomnadzor blocked the websites of Russia's leading independent media outlets, Dozhd (Rain) TV and Echo of Moscow, Al Jazeera reported March 2.

Russia: War Censorship Grips Russia, Portending Social Media Restrictions

Russia paid a 6.5% coupon due on a ruble-denominated OFZ bond maturing in 2024, but the Central Bank of Russia's March 1 ban on coupon payments to foreign holders of OFZ government bonds appears to be blocking foreign investors from accessing their share of the payments, Bloomberg reported March 2.

Russia: Central Bank Bans Coupon Payments to Foreign Holders of OFZ Bonds

Banking

Belarus

The European Union approved a package of sanctions against Belarus for its supporting role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported March 2.

Belarus: EU Announces Sanctions Over Supporting Role in Ukraine Invasion

OPEC+ stuck with its planned 400,000-barrel per day production hike for the month of April, shrugging off concerns that Western sanctions may lead to a decline in Russian oil exports, and light sweet crude benchmark Brent subsequently hit an eight-year high of $113.94 per barrel, Reuters reported March 2.

Global: OPEC+ Shrugs off Russia Supply Shock, Approves Modest Production Hike

The Saudi Survival Strategy

For proof that the Cold War never fully died, look no further than Ukraine, the site of a much broader standoff between the West and Russia. After the Euromaidan uprising of 2014, protesters replaced a government allied with Moscow with one allied with the West — an act to which Russia responded by annexing Crimea and by supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. The West has since levied sanctions against Russia. The government in Kiev is still viable for now, but security, economic and political support from the West will ultimately determine whether Ukraine can stay intact.

For proof that the Cold War never fully died, look no further than Ukraine, the site of a much broader standoff between the West and Russia.

United States

Echoes of the Cold War

Russia's Internal Struggle

Columns

On Geopolitics

Poland

Hungarian President Katalin Novak (L) and Polish President Andrzej Duda on May 17, 2022, in Warsaw, Poland.

Just as the Ukraine war motivated Sweden and Finland to abandon their neutrality, it could reconcile the European Union with two of its most problematic member states.

Will the War in Ukraine End the Polish-Hungarian Alliance?

Assessments

Finland

Sweden

NATO headquarters on Feb. 11, 2020, in Brussels, Belgium. 

While Moscow will respond with disruptive measures, direct conflict between Russia and Sweden or Finland is unlikely at this time.

How Russia Would Respond to Finnish and Swedish NATO Membership

Guidance

Australia

Malaysia

Bulgaria

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

A natural gas-powered stove Nov. 03, 2021, in Berlin. France will host a meeting of EU energy ministers on May 2 to discuss how to deal with Russia's decision to halt natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: European Governments Discuss the Energy Crisis, Malaysia Increases Its Minimum Wage

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022. 

On top of destabilizing Moldova's pro-EU government, the attacks in Transdniestria could distract Kyiv from Moscow's eastern offensive by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine.

Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War

On Security

Police on April 8, 2022 guard the Russian Embassy in Helsinki, Finland.

The loss of more than 400 officers will undoubtedly complicate, and in some cases cripple, Russian espionage in Europe, but the impact will fade over time.

The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russian Espionage in Europe, Part I

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (R) and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on Feb. 20, 2022, in Jerusalem. Israel's attempts to remain neutral during the Ukraine war may not survive Russian escalation in Ukraine or a new Israeli prime minister in 2023.

Israel's attempts to remain neutral during the Ukraine war may not survive Russian escalation in Ukraine or a new Israeli prime minister in 2023.

Israel's Difficult Balancing Act Between Ukraine and Russia

Israel's Survival Strategy

Morocco

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The PCK oil refinery, which is majority-owned by Russian energy company Rosneft, on March 21, 2022, in Schwedt, Germany.

Significant volatility in supply and prices will lead to more social unrest and force governments to extend aid packages to households and companies.

How the Ukraine Invasion Will Affect Oil Markets

Romania

Refugees from Ukraine walk at the Ukrainian-Romanian border in Siret on March 2, 2022. Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

Romania's Security and Social Challenges, and Political Benefits, From the Ukraine War

Firemen work to clear the rubble after a Russian rocket exploded just outside the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on March 14, 2022. 

Moscow is unlikely to halt its attacks until Kyiv concedes to all of its security demands, including surrendering Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas region.

Despite Progress on 'Neutrality,' Larger Constraints to a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Remain

China

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks Feb. 28, 2022, during the opening of a session of the U.N. Human Rights Council after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

China in Transition

While China is likely to continue its tacit support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, Beijing will also seek to repair relations with the West to protect its economic growth.

The Strategic Imperatives Shaping China's Response to the Ukraine War

U.S.-China Relations

Colombia

A general view of a destroyed bridge on March 11, 2022 in Borshchiv, Ukraine. Russia continues its assault on Ukraine's major cities, including the capital Kyiv, after launching a large-scale invasion of the country on Feb. 24.

The Weekly Rundown: The Ukraine War Continues, France Drops Its COVID-19 Health Pass

COVID-19

South Korea

Campaign posters in April 2016 at Cheonggye stream in Seoul. South Korea chooses a new president on March 9, 2022.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: War and Talks in Ukraine, South Korea Chooses a New President

The Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine: Kremlin Leaves Possibility of Return of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya Regions Open

EU: Phased Russian Oil Ban Proposal Possible After French Presidential Election

Russia, Ukraine: Second Round of Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks End Without Cease-fire

Indonesia: Cooking Oil Shortages Expose Region to Supply Chain Uncertainty

Russia: War Censorship Grips Russia, Portending Social Media Restrictions

Russia: Central Bank Bans Coupon Payments to Foreign Holders of OFZ Bonds

Belarus: EU Announces Sanctions Over Supporting Role in Ukraine Invasion

Global: OPEC+ Shrugs off Russia Supply Shock, Approves Modest Production Hike

Forecasts

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