United States

China

Taiwan

Politics

The Taiwan People's Party on May 27 posted a notice on its website stating that TPP head Huang Kuo-chang had sent a letter to U.S. members of Congress calling for the U.S. Six Assurances to be codified into law, adding that "The U.S. commitment to Taiwan should be enduring and principled -- not an option to be bargained away through diplomatic horse-trading."

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

U.S.-China Relations

China is delaying approval for a summer visit to Beijing by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby until President Donald Trump makes a decision on a pending $14 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, according to sources cited in a May 20 Financial Times report.

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

Economics

Military & Security

Regarding a pending large U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "I haven't approved it yet…it depends on China. It's a very good negotiating chip for us," according to a Fox News interview aired on May 15.

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

China's Ministry of Commerce released a statement on May 16 confirming the terms of a new U.S.-China trade deal, including the formation of a Board of Trade and Board of Investments and an agreement to pursue reciprocal tariff reductions on goods of mutual concern.

U.S., China: Trade Deal Details Confirmed Following Xi-Trump Summit 

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted U.S. President Donald Trump at the Great Hall of the People for the first day of their two-day summit, where the two had a public banquet and a two-and-a-half-hour, closed-door meeting, according to state news outlet Xinhua on May 14.

China, U.S.: Trump and Xi Talk Trade and Managed Competition

As U.S. President Donald Trump landed in China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held roughly three hours of trade talks in South Korea aimed at preparing the summit agenda between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, with topics including tariffs, semiconductors, rare earths, agriculture, aerospace, energy and the Iran conflict, Reuters reported on May 13. 

China, U.S.: Summit Prep Points to Limited Trade Accommodations, Taiwan Friction

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S. and Chinese officials are considering launching talks on artificial intelligence, potentially at the May 14-15 summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, to implement guardrails on its use, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 7.

U.S., China: Countries Weigh Renewing AI Dialogue

Iran

China's Ministry of Commerce issued an injunction blocking domestic compliance with U.S. sanctions on five Chinese refiners accused by Washington of buying Iranian oil, state news agency Xinhua reported on May 2.

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

Assessments

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Kenya

Israel

Lebanon

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Americas

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

Germany

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

U.S.-China Relations

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

U.S., China: Trade Deal Details Confirmed Following Xi-Trump Summit

China, U.S.: Trump and Xi Talk Trade and Managed Competition

China, U.S.: Summit Prep Points to Limited Trade Accommodations, Taiwan Friction

U.S., China: Countries Weigh Renewing AI Dialogue

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support