United States

China

Taiwan

Military & Security

Politics

China's Eastern Theater Command initiated large scale drills encircling Taiwan, including around areas closer to the main island than in previous exercises and deploying army, naval, air force and artillery units, Reuters reported Dec. 29.

China, Taiwan: Beijing Conducts Record Encirclement Drills Around Taiwan

U.S.-China Relations

Economics

China said it will take "corresponding measures" in response to U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports from June 23, 2027, following the conclusion of a yearlong Section 301 probe into Beijing's chip policies, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 24.

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

Environment, Science & Technology

The Office of the United States Trade Representative concluded a yearlong Section 301 investigation, finding China's semiconductor industrial policies "unreasonable," but said any new tariffs on Chinese legacy chips will be delayed until June 2027 with rates announced at least 30 days in advance, the Financial Times reported Dec. 23. 

China: Washington Delays New Chip Tariffs to 2027 Amid Fragile Trade Truce

A draft Pentagon report assesses that China has likely loaded over 100 solid-fueled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into three recently identified silo fields near the Mongolian border, Reuters reported Dec. 23. 

China, U.S.: Beijing Continues To Build Up Nuclear Arsenal, Reject Arms Control Talks

The United States initiated congressional notification procedures for a proposed $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the largest in history, covering high-mobility artillery rocket systems, howitzers, drones and anti-tank missiles, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

Taiwan, U.S.: Washington Announces Record-Breaking $11B Arms Sale

Chinese officials are discussing ways to limit domestic companies' access to U.S. manufacturer Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips, which are a generation behind Nvidia's Blackwell family of chips but still outstrip the most advanced Chinese-produced chips in memory bandwidth and processing performance, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 9.

China, U.S.: China Looks To Restrict H200 Chips After Trump Approves Their Export

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump paused plans to sanction China's Ministry of State Security over its role in the 2024 major hack on U.S. infrastructure called Salt Typhoon, according to Financial Times sources on Dec. 4.

U.S., China: Trump Pauses Sanctions, Constrains Export Curbs To Support China Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act after the bill passed the Senate and House, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 3. 

U.S. Taiwan: U.S. Bill To Facilitate Talks With Taiwan, Stir Chinese Retaliation

Assessments

Greenland

Europe

Denmark

Russia

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Energy

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-Iran Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Ukraine

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Brazil

Iraq

Syria

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Argentina

Japan

South Korea

Netherlands

Supporters of Argentine President Javier Milei's Liberty Advances (LLA) party wave flags during a campaign rally in Rosario, Argentina, on Oct. 23, 2025.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentina Holds Midterm Elections, Trump Travels to Asia

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

U.S.-China Relations

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Taiwan: Beijing Conducts Record Encirclement Drills Around Taiwan

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

China: Washington Delays New Chip Tariffs to 2027 Amid Fragile Trade Truce

China, U.S.: Beijing Continues To Build Up Nuclear Arsenal, Reject Arms Control Talks

Taiwan, U.S.: Washington Announces Record-Breaking $11B Arms Sale

China, U.S.: China Looks To Restrict H200 Chips After Trump Approves Their Export

U.S., China: Trump Pauses Sanctions, Constrains Export Curbs To Support China Deal

U.S. Taiwan: U.S. Bill To Facilitate Talks With Taiwan, Stir Chinese Retaliation

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

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