United States

China

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Chinese shipments of yttrium, one of the heavy rare earth elements subject to Chinese export licensing requirements, and scandium, another element typically classified as a rare earth element subject to such requirements, to U.S. companies have remained low, increasing shortages for some aerospace and semiconductor companies, Reuters reported on Feb. 25. 

China, U.S.: Chinese Export Controls Still Causing Yttrium, Scandium Shortages

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

Military & Security

China and Iran are close to reaching a deal for Iran to purchase Chinese-made CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles, Reuters reported on Feb. 24.

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

Taiwan

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt on Feb. 18 declined to comment on a reporter's question about U.S. President Donald Trump's claim on Feb. 16 that he had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan and that they would make a determination on the matter soon, the South China Morning Post reported on Feb. 19. 

U.S., Taiwan, China: Trump Considering Delaying Arms Sales to Taiwan

U.S. President Donald Trump is shelving numerous tech restrictions on China to facilitate his April summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing, according to Reuters sources on Feb. 12.

China, U.S.: Trump Curbing Tech Restrictions as Both Sides Seek Year-Long Deal

Taiwan's defense ministry said it will ask the United States to extend deadlines for signing several arms purchase agreements because parliament has still not approved the required funding, Reuters reports Feb. 6.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

Hong Kong SAR, China

During the Feb. 4 Critical Minerals Ministerial hosted by the U.S. State Department, U.S. Vice President JD Vance proposed creating a "preferential trade zone" for critical raw materials among allies to counter Chinese dominance, the Wall Street Journal reported.

U.S.: Vance Calls for Creation of Critical Minerals 'Trade Zone' With Allies

Panama

Panama's Supreme Court annulled the contracts held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison to operate two ports on both sides of the country's canal, El Pais reported on Jan. 30.

Panama, U.S., China: Panama's Supreme Court Nullifies CK Hutchinson Ports Contracts

The Chinese government granted Chinese tech giants ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent approvals to purchase a combined total of more than 400,000 Nvidia H200 chips, according to Reuters sources on Jan. 28.

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

Assessments

Germany

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

U.S.-Iran Relations

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Israel

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Tanzania

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

Brazil

Iraq

Syria

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

SITUATION REPORTS

China, U.S.: Chinese Export Controls Still Causing Yttrium, Scandium Shortages

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

U.S., Taiwan, China: Trump Considering Delaying Arms Sales to Taiwan

China, U.S.: Trump Curbing Tech Restrictions as Both Sides Seek Year-Long Deal

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

U.S.: Vance Calls for Creation of Critical Minerals 'Trade Zone' With Allies

Panama, U.S., China: Panama's Supreme Court Nullifies CK Hutchinson Ports Contracts

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support