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Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

U.S. and Chinese officials are considering launching talks on artificial intelligence, potentially at the May 14-15 summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, to implement guardrails on its use, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 7.

U.S., China: Countries Weigh Renewing AI Dialogue

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

Economics

China's Ministry of Commerce issued an injunction blocking domestic compliance with U.S. sanctions on five Chinese refiners accused by Washington of buying Iranian oil, state news agency Xinhua reported on May 2.

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

Energy

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned China's Hengli Petrochemical's Dalian refinery, accusing it of buying billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil and thereby helping fund Iran's military, and roughly 40 shipping companies and vessels, according to an April 24 Treasury press release.

China, U.S.: Washington Hits Major Chinese Refiner Over Iranian Oil

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of carrying out "industrial-scale" theft of U.S. artificial intelligence technology, saying China-based actors used proxy accounts and jailbreaking techniques to extract proprietary data from leading U.S. models, The Financial Times reported April 23.

U.S., China: White House Accuses China of 'Industrial-Scale' AI Theft Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China's commerce ministry on March 27 initiated two probes, one into U.S. actions affecting global trade and another into U.S. actions impacting trade in "green products," including curbs on imports and technology cooperation.

China, U.S.: Beijing Prepares Retaliation for U.S. Section 301 Investigations

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on March 25 that U.S. President Donald Trump's summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, originally scheduled for March 31 to April 2, had been rescheduled to May 14-15.

U.S., China: Trump-Xi Summit Rescheduled for May, Reciprocal U.S. Visit Pitched

Military & Security

Police in Wuhan arrested seven people and gave administrative penalties to four companies amid a crackdown on trafficking in nationally controlled fentanyl precursors, China's official outlet Xinhua reported on March 19.

China, U.S.: Fentanyl Arrests Will Help Beijing Avoid Higher U.S. Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump late on March 16 told reporters that the United States had requested that China delay a summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping by "a month or so," Bloomberg reported the same day.

U.S., China: Trump Delays Long-Sought Trip to Beijing Due to Iran War

Assessments

Kenya

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Lebanon

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Americas

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

Germany

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Venezuela

Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Denmark

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

U.S.-China Relations

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Countries Weigh Renewing AI Dialogue

China, U.S.: Beijing Prohibits Compliance With U.S. Sanctions Over Iran

China, U.S.: Washington Hits Major Chinese Refiner Over Iranian Oil

U.S., China: White House Accuses China of 'Industrial-Scale' AI Theft Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

China, U.S.: Beijing Prepares Retaliation for U.S. Section 301 Investigations

U.S., China: Trump-Xi Summit Rescheduled for May, Reciprocal U.S. Visit Pitched

China, U.S.: Fentanyl Arrests Will Help Beijing Avoid Higher U.S. Tariffs

U.S., China: Trump Delays Long-Sought Trip to Beijing Due to Iran War

Forecasts

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