GRAPHICS

The Distribution of Libya's Major Tribes

Feb 28, 2011 | 20:17 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Managing Libya's tribal dynamics has been central to Moammar Gadhafi's ability to stay in power since 1969. Of the 140 tribes in the country, about 30 are believed to have any appreciable amount of influence, and Gadhafi has been successful at balancing them all with his own Gadhafi tribe for more than 40 years. This appears to have changed, however, in the past two weeks, with nearly every major tribe denouncing the longtime leader. The result has been an uprising that is not restricted to eastern Libya. Instead, forces loyal to Gadhafi have lost control of every region save the majority of Tripoli and the Gadhafi tribal stronghold surrounding Sirte. The majority of Libya's tribes is composed of people with mixed Arab-Berber blood and lives primarily within the vicinity of the coastal strip. Very few people live in Libya's desert interior, and the farther south they are located, like the Tuaregs and the Toubou, the less influential they are in the current conflict in the Libyan core. (The Tuaregs and Toubou do represent a threat to oil infrastructure in the desert, however.) The two largest tribes in the country are the Warfallah and Magariha, both located in the western half of Libya. Ghadafi's strategy has focused primarily on ensuring that these two remain in his camp, though it has not always been successful; for example, a failed 1993 coup attempt involved several military officers from the Warfallah. The Zuwaya tribe lives in potentially the most strategically important part of the country in terms of energy production. As Sidra, Ras Lanuf and Masra el Brega — and the oil fields that sit directly to the southeast of these crucial oil export facilities — all lie within Zuwaya-inhabited zones.