Moscow and Tokyo have been locked in a territorial dispute for more than a century over the Kuril Islands, which extend in a chain between the two countries. The islands have changed hands repeatedly throughout history, though after World War II, the Soviets occupied the disputed islands and expelled their Japanese inhabitants. Because Japan sees Russia as an occupying force in the Kurils, Moscow and Tokyo have never signed a peace treaty to end hostilities from the war. Since that time, Russia has viewed Japan as part of the U.S. alliance structure. The two countries have had a relatively poor relationship and fairly low levels of trade.
But in recent years, both countries' circumstances have changed, leaving the two to explore a possible end to the dispute and a warming of relations. First, Japan's energy consumption patterns shifted after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011. The change occurred just over a year after Russia began exporting more oil eastward and made plans to begin constructing natural gas pipelines. Japan does not want to see relations between Moscow and Beijing grow into a force that could act as an axis against Washington and Tokyo. Russia, meanwhile, does not want to base its eastern strategy on China and would like to have multiple East Asian customers for its energy exports. So in 2013, the countries discussed two major investment deals: a Russo-Japanese investment bank that would help the Russian state privatize assets, and Japanese investment into Russia's energy sector. These opportunities led Moscow and Tokyo to explore a possible deal over the Kuril Islands in 2013.
But the thaw in their relations halted after the 2014 uprising that replaced the pro-Russia government in Ukraine with a Western-backed government. Western sanctions against Russia followed, and Russia grew more internationally isolated. Russia likely would have continued pursuing stronger ties with Japan had Tokyo not signed onto the sanctions against it. Since then, Russia has increased its military activities in the Pacific, conducting flights around Japan's northern islands and holding exercises on the disputed Kuril Islands.
However, this does not mean that Russia and Japan do not have high-level dialogue. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are preparing to meet in Yamaguchi Prefecture on Dec. 15, where they are likely to discuss the territorial dispute. And according to Japanese government sources, Tokyo might soon be willing to strike a deal without requiring Moscow's recognition of Japan's claims to the Kuril Islands. While Russian presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov has expressed skepticism that a peace deal might be possible, there are ways that Tokyo could again incentivize the Russians' cooperation with investment. Japan may indeed be getting closer to signing a peace treaty with Russia to mark the official end of their World War II hostilities.
