Cuba

United States

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Anti-government protests opposing severe power outages across Cuba escalated, with protesters attacking a Communist Party office in the central city of Moron, 250 miles (402 kilometers) east of Havana, Reuters reported on March 14.

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

The Cuban government has engaged in talks with the United States, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirmed in a TV broadcast on March 13.

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump said a U.S. takeover of Cuba could be friendly or not, Reuters reported on March 9.

U.S., Cuba: Washington To Maintain Pressure on Havana To Obtain Economic and Political Concessions

Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel said the country should "immediately" focus on transforming its economic and social model, AP reported on March 2.

Cuba: Government To Focus on Economic and Social Transformation Amid Energy Crisis

The U.S. Treasury Department announced that it will allow the sale of oil and gas to Cuba's private sector and citizens, Reuters reported on Feb. 25.

U.S., Cuba: Oil Import Authorization To Only Marginally Alleviate Energy Crisis

The Cuban Embassy in the United States issued a statement on X stating that on Feb. 25, border guard troops of Cuba's Ministry of the Interior exchanged deadly fire with individuals on a speedboat registered as originating in Florida, United States, after individuals on the speedboat shot at Cuban personnel in Cuban territorial waters.

Cuba, U.S.: Cuban Government Announces Exchange of Fire With U.S.-Registered Speedboat

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is discussing a potential "agreement" with the Cuban government, also calling Cuba "a failed nation," DW reported on Feb. 16.

U.S., Cuba: Trump Administration Engaged in Talks With Cuban Government

Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order late on Jan. 29 declaring a national emergency in response to threats from Cuba and ordering the imposition of tariffs on countries that directly or indirectly sell or provide oil to Cuba.

U.S., Cuba: White House Threatens To Impose Tariffs on Countries That Provide Oil to Cuba

Assessments

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Nigeria

Colombia

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

Israel

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Belize

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

Bahamas

Trinidad and Tobago

Jamaica

A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. 

The Trump administration will likely expand its attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the region over the next year, potentially extending to land-based targets, which will create safety, operational and compliance challenges for organizations.

The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Costa Rica

Guyana

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Suriname

Uruguay

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Cambodia

Indonesia

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Snapshots

People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Media

Podcasts

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Are Russia's claims of increased cooperation with Latin America's authoritarian governments credible?

Essential Geopolitics: Russia Makes Moves in the U.S. Backyard

People walk past a mural of the Venezuelan and Russian flags that reads "Together we will defeat COVID-19" in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 4, 2021.

The Ukraine Conflict

Amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine, Moscow will use its ties with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to illustrate its geopolitical influence in the U.S.'s own backyard. 

Is Russia’s Renewed Outreach to Latin America All for Show?

A demonstrator holds up a sign in solidarity with protesters in Cuba outside the White House on July 18, 2021. 

Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Biden administration’s response to Havana's heavy-handed crackdown on recent protests could spook Western investors. 

U.S. Sanctions Dim Hopes for Cuba’s Economic Opening

An old American car passes by the capitol building in Havana, Cuba, on May 3, 2021. 

The move will help spur growth, but the continued state control of Cuba’s most lucrative sectors will impede investment. 

Cuba Legalizes Private Businesses, With Key Caveats

Guidance

Uganda

Japan

Philippines

South Korea

Turkey

A motorist passes a sign for the 8th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party on April 6, 2021, in Havana. The Party will convene April 16-19 against the backdrop of broader Cuban discontent over a deteriorating economic situation,

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Economic Data From China and More Indirect U.S.-Iran Talks

Cuba is the largest island in the Caribbean and separates the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea. Forming the choke point for shipping routes out of the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, Cuba is a strategically significant territory in the Western Hemisphere.    Cuba lies in a subtropical humid zone with mostly flat geography that is well suited for agriculture, such as sugar, coffee and tobacco.    Havana is the political and economic core of Cuba, with more than 2 million people, or about 20 percent of the island's population. Rugged terrain to the southeast is dominated by the Sierra Maestra Mountains, which have historically been used by individuals seeking refuge from government control. It was from this region that the Cuban revolution of 1959 was planned and executed.    Cuba's major geographic challenge is its proximity and importance to the United States. Its location has repeatedly made the island a battleground in global affairs.The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was the pinnacle of conflict over Cuba, and since that time, U.S. policy has revolved around denying foreign powers military access to the island. In the wake of the Cold War, Cuba's close relationship with Venezuela has provided an important source of petroleum for the politically and economically isolated island.    Cuba is emerging from its communist economic model, but with limited resources and an underdeveloped industrial sector, it will take time for the country's economic model to evolve.

Venezuela's Unraveling

Security Challenges in Latin America

North America Unrivaled

SITUATION REPORTS

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

U.S., Cuba: Washington To Maintain Pressure on Havana To Obtain Economic and Political Concessions

Cuba: Government To Focus on Economic and Social Transformation Amid Energy Crisis

U.S., Cuba: Oil Import Authorization To Only Marginally Alleviate Energy Crisis

Cuba, U.S.: Cuban Government Announces Exchange of Fire With U.S.-Registered Speedboat

U.S., Cuba: Trump Administration Engaged in Talks With Cuban Government

U.S., Cuba: White House Threatens To Impose Tariffs on Countries That Provide Oil to Cuba

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support