Iran

Turkey

China

Europe

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Economics

At the Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis announced that European and international financial institutions will commit 10 billion euros ($10.84 billion) toward sustainable transport connectivity in Central Asia, Interfax reported on Jan. 29.

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Politics

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev won the 2023 presidential election against virtually no opposition, enabling him to remain in power until at least 2030, The Moscow Times reported on July 10.

Uzbekistan: Mirziyoyev Wins Presidential Election, Extending His Rule to 2030

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced an early presidential election for July 9, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on May 8.

Uzbekistan: President Calls Snap Presidential Election for July 9

Lawmakers in Uzbekistan provisionally set an April 30 date for a long-delayed referendum on a new constitution, Eurasianet reported on March 10.

Uzbekistan: Constitutional Referendum Date Set for April 30

United States

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kazakhstan for his first official visit to the country, where on Feb. 28 he will meet with the Kazakh president and other senior officials, Kazinform reported Feb. 27.

U.S., Kazakhstan: Blinken in Central Asia for First Time for C5+1

Energy

Uzbekistan's energy minister responded to a Russian proposal for a "gas union" including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia by saying the government would not agree to any political conditions that would jeopardize its national interests, Reuters reported Dec. 8.

Uzbekistan, Russia: Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

Afghanistan

Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan agreed to operationalize a railway economic corridor between China and Afghanistan, Ariana News reported Sept. 11.

Afghanistan, China: Beijing to Transport Goods to Afghanistan Through Central Asia

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy agreed to settle Afghan electricity utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat's outstanding debt for electric power supplies, Eurasianet reported Aug. 3.

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

Assessments

A Kyrgyz serviceman at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border Sept. 20, 2022, in Min-Bulak, Kyrgyzstan. A border demarcation deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would reduce the risk of a larger conflict between the countries in the years to come, ultimately boosting regional economic prospects and transit connectivity, as well as the credibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Military & Security

Such a deal would reduce the risk of a conflict between the two, boosting regional economic prospects along with the credibility of the Russia-led CSTO.

How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia

Snapshots

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Columns

On Geopolitics

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

Social Issues

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

People attend a rally in support of Uzbekistan's constitutional referendum on March 28, 2023, in the city of Jizzakh, located roughly 250 kilometers (155 miles) south of the capital Tashkent.

Despite including provisions to strengthen civil liberties, the amendments are more aimed at securing President Mirziyoyev's grip on power by enabling him to run for two more terms.

In Uzbekistan, a Constitutional Referendum Is Unlikely to Portend Liberalization

Media

Cambodia

Podcasts

Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

Chinese President Xi Jinping gives a speech in Hong Kong on July 1, 2022. 

The Chinese president's first post-COVID trip abroad will showcase Beijing's desire to boost economic cooperation with developing states like Kazakhstan, as well as solidify its partnership with Russia amid mounting competition with the West. 

Xi's Central Asia Visit Offers a Fresh Start for Chinese Diplomacy

Pakistan

Taliban fighters in armored vehicles in a military parade on April 19, 2022, in Herat, Afghanistan. Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Jihadist Wars

Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Worsening Security in Afghanistan Threatens the Taliban at Home and Abroad

Guidance

Asia-Pacific

Myanmar

Saudi Arabia

Members of a local election commission prepare a polling station in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Oct. 21, 2021, ahead of the country’s presidential election. 

Security

Environmental Issues

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Uzbekistan, ASEAN Meets Without Myanmar

A U.S. military helicopter Aug. 15, 2021, above the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Taliban's move on Kabul may yield it the government, but this is only the first step in establishing control in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's move on Kabul may yield it the government, but this is only the first step in establishing control in Afghanistan. As it negotiates for the transfer of power, we will be watching several additional aspects in the coming days and weeks.

Where Are the Taliban and Afghanistan Headed After the Fall of Kabul?

The War in Afghanistan

Mexico

Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi holds a press conference June 21, 2021, in Tehran, Iran. Aside from foreign policy, Raisi's main short-term priorities will be improving the Iranian economy.

COVID-19

U.S.-Iran Relations

Instability in Central Asia

The Weekly Rundown: Inauguration Day in Iran, Military Drills in Central Asia

After years on the sidelines President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's predecessor, Uzbekistan is engaging more with its neighbors.

After a quarter-century of isolation, Uzbekistan is increasingly open for business. Balancing against the great powers, however, is set to prove a challenge.

Uzbekistan Comes in From the Cold

Videos

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Uzbekistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia. The most populous state in the region, it is the only country to border all other Central Asian states. Uzbekistan is a significant producer and exporter of oil and natural gas which, along with agriculture, dominate the country's economy. These resources, as well as the country's strategic location and the presence of militant groups, have brought the interest of foreign powers such as China, Russia and the United States. Because of this, Uzbekistan's primary geographic challenge is to maintain unity while also balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.     Historically, Uzbekistan was an important component of the Silk Road, and cities such as Samarkand, Bukhara and Khiva are still key political and population centers in the country. After Uzbekistan became overrun by the Mongols, it became the seat of an expansive Timurid dynasty. The territory of Uzbekistan was then divided between a series of Khanates before being absorbed into the Russian Empire in the 19th century. A former member of the Soviet Union, the landlocked country gained independence in 1991.     Modern day Uzbekistan is centered around its capital in Tashkent, though the country has substantial regional divisions. While the western half is largely sparsely populated desert, the majority of the population is concentrated in the demographic and agricultural heartland of Central Asia, the Fergana Valley.     The valley itself is divided by a series of complex and poorly defined borders established during the Soviet era to prevent the emergence of a unified Central Asian state. These borders have led to ethnic tensions, resource disputes, and the frequent border skirmishes between Uzbekistan and neighboring states such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Uzbekistan: Mirziyoyev Wins Presidential Election, Extending His Rule to 2030

Uzbekistan: President Calls Snap Presidential Election for July 9

Uzbekistan: Constitutional Referendum Date Set for April 30

U.S., Kazakhstan: Blinken in Central Asia for First Time for C5+1

Uzbekistan, Russia: Tashkent Skeptical of Russia's 'Tripartite Gas Union' Proposal

Afghanistan, China: Beijing to Transport Goods to Afghanistan Through Central Asia

Uzbekistan, Afghanistan: Taliban Settles Electricity Debts With Tashkent

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