Egypt

Economics

The International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt's expanded $8 billion Extended Fund Facility, or EFF, loan program set to end in December 2026 as well as the first review of its $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 26.

Egypt: Cairo Passes IMF Reviews, Unlocks $2.3B

Ethiopia

Somalia

United States

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Science & Technology

The Egyptian government is open to supporting Ethiopia's push to gain maritime access to the Red Sea if Addis Ababa shows "flexibility" regarding the Nile waters dispute, The National reported on Feb. 23, quoting Egyptian sources.

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Military & Security

The Egyptian Parliament approved a Cabinet reshuffle to appoint more than a dozen new ministers, including those overseeing housing, planning, investment, foreign trade and defense, though the minister for foreign affairs remained in his post, Reuters reported on Feb. 10.

Egypt: Cairo Reshuffles Cabinet in Bid To Address High Cost of Living

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia's and Somalia's defense ministers signed a new defense agreement on the sidelines of the World Defense Show in Riyadh on Feb. 9, the two governments said.

Saudi Arabia, Somalia: Defense Agreement Will Bolster Somalia's Capabilities

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on Feb. 4, The National reported the same day. 

Egypt, Turkey: Erdogan and al-Sisi Expand Military and Economic Cooperation in Cairo

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office announced Israel will reopen the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip -- likely within days -- after the Israel Defense Forces secured the body of the last remaining hostage taken by Hamas in 2023, Reuters reported on Jan. 26.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel To Reopen Rafah Crossing After Hostage Recovery Efforts End

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi met with U.S. President Donald Trump's son, Eric Trump, in the presence of Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

Sudan

Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sweilem said Ethiopia should pay Egypt compensation due to its management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, claiming that the dam had reduced Egypt's use of Nile waters from its allocated 55 billion cubic meters to 38 billion cubic meters, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 20. 

Egypt, Ethiopia: Cairo Demands Compensation Over GERD Following Trump Mediation Proposal

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A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

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Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

Assessments

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.

The ceasefire will allow Israel to redirect resources away from Gaza toward other regional threats, particularly Iran, while temporarily easing diplomatic tensions with Egypt and the UAE.

The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Egyptian army vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip on July 4, 2024, in the north Sinai Peninsula. 

Energy

While an all-out war remains improbable, Egypt's military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula will increase the risk of sporadic border incidents and could prompt Israel to suspend a major energy deal with Cairo.

Is an Israel-Egypt Conflict on the Horizon?

Jordan

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Located in the northeast corner of Africa, Egypt lies at the heart of the Arab World. Comprised of mostly uninhabitable desert, 99 percent of the country's 93 million people live along the banks of the Nile River. This region, from the Aswan High Dam to the Mediterranean shore is Egypt's core.    The Nile, while not commercially navigable, forms the basis of Egypt's irrigation-dependent agricultural sector. The long, narrow stretch of population requires expensive infrastructure development — especially related to transportation, straining the capital-poor government's resources.     The desert topography demands a great deal of investment on a national scale necessitating a strong central state, helping to explain Egypt's history of authoritarian regimes beginning with the pharaohs.     Egypt's main geographic challenge has been to develop beyond the narrow Nile corridor and project power eastward. The Saharan desert has largely insulated the Nile core from its western flank and contained Egypt's westward expansion.    Egypt has been able to translate its strong central government and border with Israel into developing a relationship with the United States, the key foreign backer protecting the Suez Canal and the northern coastline. This area contains the majority of Egypt's offshore hydrocarbon reserves.    The Sinai Desert has traditionally been the overland route of foreign invasion, but its more manageable geography also accommodates Egyptian attempts to interact with the Levant and Arabian Peninsula and competition with Saudi Arabia for the role of regional Arab hegemon.

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Egypt: Cairo Passes IMF Reviews, Unlocks $2.3B

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Egypt: Cairo Reshuffles Cabinet in Bid To Address High Cost of Living

Saudi Arabia, Somalia: Defense Agreement Will Bolster Somalia's Capabilities

Egypt, Turkey: Erdogan and al-Sisi Expand Military and Economic Cooperation in Cairo

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel To Reopen Rafah Crossing After Hostage Recovery Efforts End

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

Egypt, Ethiopia: Cairo Demands Compensation Over GERD Following Trump Mediation Proposal

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