United States

Iraq

Energy

Military & Security

An explosive-laden drone struck the Kurdistan region of Iraq's Sarang gas field in Dahuk province, Reuters reported on July 15.

Iraq: Drone Strike Causes Explosion at KRG Gas Field Operated by U.S. Company

Turkey

Politics

Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, announced that the militant group's armed struggle against Turkey had ended and called for a transition to democratic politics in a video message, Reuters reported on July 9.

Turkey, Iraq: PKK Leader Announced End to Armed Struggle, Political Transition

Iran

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, is preparing for an ordered evacuation, and the U.S. military has authorized the "voluntary departure" of troops' dependents in the Middle East, AP reported on June 11.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Embassy in Baghdad Prepares for Ordered Evacuation

Angola

Algeria

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Kazakhstan

Russia

Economics

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the organization announced in a May 31 communique.

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Venezuela

Libya

OPEC+ announced on May 3 that it will raise its collective oil production cap by 411,000 barrels per day in June, an increase from the original production increase of roughly 138,000 barrels per day to which the bloc previously agreed.

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Israel

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa, are reportedly in advanced discussions to disarm, Reuters reported April 7, citing senior commanders and Iraqi officials. 

Iraq: Iranian-Backed Militias Reportedly Discussing Disarmament

The United States failed to renew a sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iraq, letting the waiver expire, Bloomberg reported on March 8.

Iraq: U.S. Ends Iraq's Waiver To Import Iranian Electricity

The eight OPEC+ countries participating in 2.2 million barrels per days of voluntary oil productions cuts -- Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- agreed to continue with their previously announced plans to begin unwinding their voluntary product cuts between April 1, 2025, and September 2026, OPEC said in a statement on March 3.

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

Snapshots

The sun sets behind electrical grids in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Jan. 3, 2021. 

Power outages will likely worsen this summer amid Iraq's inability to meet surging demand and reliance on unreliable Iranian gas supplies, raising the risk of larger and potentially more violent protests.

Iraq's Worsening Electricity Crisis Risks Fueling Bigger Protests

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Assessments

An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program as U.S.-Iran talks struggle to progress, potentially setting off a cycle of regional escalation that alters Iran's political landscape.

As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The OPEC logo is seen outside the bloc's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Oct. 4, 2022.

The production boost will further decrease oil prices, which will provide some financial relief for oil-consuming countries affected by U.S. tariffs, while further straining the budgets of poorer oil producers like Iraq. 

The Mixed Economic Impact of OPEC's Production Increase

Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Recent actions by Iran and its Iraqi proxies appear designed to appease the U.S. as the Trump administration weighs taking aggressive military action against them both.

To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy

Syrian Kurds wave independence-era flags in support of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Dec. 19, 2024, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.

A rapprochement would boost the odds of Turkish constitutional reform needed to give Erdogan another term, while its failure could presage regionwide violence.

Hints Emerge of a Turkish-Kurdish Thaw

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Brazil

Colombia

Cuba

Haiti

Nicaragua

Jordan

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China

Indonesia

Europe

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

Ukraine

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

India

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Tunisia

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

<p>Iraq rests at the heart of the Middle East, wedged between large and small powers alike. The country is divided into three topographic zones: the riverlands of Mesopotamia, the land between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the western and southern deserts, which reach into Saudi Arabia and Syria; and the highlands of Iraqi Kurdistan. The southern deserts shield Iraq from attack, while the northern highlands impede any attempt at conquest from Anatolia. But the open Syrian Desert provides a route into Iraq from Syria, especially along the Euphrates River, and the country&rsquo;s eastern frontier has few natural barriers to prevent invasion from Iran. The flat riverlands are similarly vulnerable to incursion from any power able to land an army from the Persian Gulf. Historically, foreign forces have used these routes as a means to penetrate Iraq&rsquo;s borders. In premodern times, Iraq&rsquo;s wealth came from its agricultural core, which forms the heart of the Fertile Crescent and stretches to the Persian Gulf. The country&rsquo;s 37 million people are still mostly concentrated in these farmlands today. But the discovery of oil in the north, east and south have shifted Iraq&rsquo;s economic core from the agricultural riverlands to the northern highlands and the Iranian border, bringing prosperity to cities such as Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk. For most of its history, Iraq has been dominated by its neighbors, which have left behind unique cultural, religious and ethnic legacies. The Sunni Ottoman Turks and the Shiite Safavid Persians helped produce the country&rsquo;s modern Sunni and Shiite communities, while the sparsely inhabited western desert continues to have tribal and sectarian links to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Some of these groups have kept their relationships with Iraq&rsquo;s neighbors, which leverage those ties for their own strategic purposes. Meanwhile, in Iraq&rsquo;s northern highlands, the indigenous Kurds have managed to maintain a cohesive identity throughout centuries of foreign domination. This isolation occasionally gives rise to Kurdish secessionism. As the northern highlands drift further from the central government&rsquo;s control, the Sunni, Shiite, Christian and other communities of the riverlands and deserts jockey with one another for dominance of the state. Iraq&rsquo;s geographic challenge is therefore to protect its vulnerable oil fields while managing a diverse population that is susceptible to external influence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Iraq: Drone Strike Causes Explosion at KRG Gas Field Operated by U.S. Company

Turkey, Iraq: PKK Leader Announced End to Armed Struggle, Political Transition

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Embassy in Baghdad Prepares for Ordered Evacuation

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Iraq: Iranian-Backed Militias Reportedly Discussing Disarmament

Iraq: U.S. Ends Iraq's Waiver To Import Iranian Electricity

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

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