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Military & Security

The U.S. and Israel-Iran war has entered its second phase as U.S. and Israeli strikes have increasingly targeted Iran's underground ballistic missile sites and as the pace of Iranian attacks has slowed over the past several days, Reuters reported on March 4. 

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

Jordan

Syria

Turkey

U.S. forces began to withdraw from Syria's Qasrak military base in the northeast, though the United States still maintains a military presence at the Rmelan base near the Syria-Iraq border, Reuters reported on Feb. 23.

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Qasrak, Islamic State Calls for 'New Phase' Against Syria

Economics

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to cut aid to Iraq if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki becomes prime minister again in a Truth Social post days after the Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, an umbrella organization of pro-Iranian Shiite political parties, nominated him, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

Iraq, U.S.: Trump Threatens To Cut Aid to Iraq if Al-Maliki Becomes Prime Minister

Iraq's Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, an umbrella organization of Iranian-aligned Shiite parties, nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to become the new prime minister following the November 2025 elections, Reuters reported on Jan. 25.

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

China

India

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Iraq's parliament convened for the first time since the Nov. 11 elections and elected the parliamentary speaker, Haibet Al-Halbousi, who is a member of the Takadum, or Progress, party, AP reported on Dec. 29.

Iraq: Parliament Elects Speaker in First Session After November Elections

The federal government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government and oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq agreed to extend their three-month deal on oil exports by another three months, Rudaw reported on Dec. 25, citing an official from Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization, which handles international sales of KRG oil exports.

Iraq: Kurdish Oil Export Deal Extended by Another Three Months

The Iraqi government has backtracked after the Justice Ministry's official gazette said Houthi and Hezbollah assets would be frozen; the groups will be removed in a revised version of the list, Reuters reported Dec. 4. 

U.S., Iraq: Iraq Amends Asset Freeze as U.S. Opens Arbil Consulate

Assessments

Members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) participate in a military drill in an outpost near Arbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, on Jan. 15, 2026.

Although arming Iranian Kurdish factions might increase pressure on Tehran, such an uprising alone would be unlikely to collapse the regime, while significantly raising the risk of drawing Turkey and Iraq into the conflict.

The Risks and Constraints of a U.S.-Backed Kurdish Uprising in Iran

People attend a gathering honoring Iran's former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on March 1, 2026, at Ashura Square in southern Beirut, Lebanon. 

The Iran war has thrown a wrench in Iraq's and Lebanon's political stalemates, likely further prolonging government formation and delaying elections.

Political Stalemates in Iraq and Lebanon Deepen Amid Regional Instability

Snapshots

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (center) delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Baghdad ahead of parliamentary elections on Nov. 7, 2025. 

If former Prime Minister al-Maliki overcomes challenges to form a new cabinet, it would likely deepen sectarian divisions, embolden Iran-backed militias and increase Iraq's exposure to U.S. financial and/or military pressure.

In Iraq, the Potential Return of a Divisive Leader Raises Alarm

Palestinian Territories

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Brazil

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

A girl walks past posters and banners depicting political candidates from rival blocs competing for a seat in the Iraqi Council of Representatives in old Mosul, northern Iraq, on Oct. 28, 2025, days before the Nov. 11, 2025, parliamentary elections.

Global Elections

Backed by a coalition that reaches across ethnic and sectarian divides, Iraq's current prime minister will likely maintain his position after the country's upcoming parliamentary elections, portending relative foreign policy continuity.

Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Qatar

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

A vehicle in a U.S. military convoy drives in Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The U.S. drawdown from Iraq will weaken Washington's direct influence while creating more space for Turkey to expand economically and Iran to gradually reassert itself through political and militia networks. 

Iraq's Shifting Power Dynamics After U.S. Withdrawal

<p>Iraq rests at the heart of the Middle East, wedged between large and small powers alike. The country is divided into three topographic zones: the riverlands of Mesopotamia, the land between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the western and southern deserts, which reach into Saudi Arabia and Syria; and the highlands of Iraqi Kurdistan. The southern deserts shield Iraq from attack, while the northern highlands impede any attempt at conquest from Anatolia. But the open Syrian Desert provides a route into Iraq from Syria, especially along the Euphrates River, and the country&rsquo;s eastern frontier has few natural barriers to prevent invasion from Iran. The flat riverlands are similarly vulnerable to incursion from any power able to land an army from the Persian Gulf. Historically, foreign forces have used these routes as a means to penetrate Iraq&rsquo;s borders. In premodern times, Iraq&rsquo;s wealth came from its agricultural core, which forms the heart of the Fertile Crescent and stretches to the Persian Gulf. The country&rsquo;s 37 million people are still mostly concentrated in these farmlands today. But the discovery of oil in the north, east and south have shifted Iraq&rsquo;s economic core from the agricultural riverlands to the northern highlands and the Iranian border, bringing prosperity to cities such as Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk. For most of its history, Iraq has been dominated by its neighbors, which have left behind unique cultural, religious and ethnic legacies. The Sunni Ottoman Turks and the Shiite Safavid Persians helped produce the country&rsquo;s modern Sunni and Shiite communities, while the sparsely inhabited western desert continues to have tribal and sectarian links to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Some of these groups have kept their relationships with Iraq&rsquo;s neighbors, which leverage those ties for their own strategic purposes. Meanwhile, in Iraq&rsquo;s northern highlands, the indigenous Kurds have managed to maintain a cohesive identity throughout centuries of foreign domination. This isolation occasionally gives rise to Kurdish secessionism. As the northern highlands drift further from the central government&rsquo;s control, the Sunni, Shiite, Christian and other communities of the riverlands and deserts jockey with one another for dominance of the state. Iraq&rsquo;s geographic challenge is therefore to protect its vulnerable oil fields while managing a diverse population that is susceptible to external influence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

MENA: Iran War Enters Second Phase

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Qasrak, Islamic State Calls for 'New Phase' Against Syria

Iraq, U.S.: Trump Threatens To Cut Aid to Iraq if Al-Maliki Becomes Prime Minister

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Iraq: Parliament Elects Speaker in First Session After November Elections

Iraq: Kurdish Oil Export Deal Extended by Another Three Months

U.S., Iraq: Iraq Amends Asset Freeze as U.S. Opens Arbil Consulate

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