Iraq

Politics

Iraqi Kurdistan held parliamentary elections for 100 lawmakers on Oct. 20, and Rudaw reported a 72% voter turnout rate the next day.

Iraq: KDP Wins Largest Bloc in Kurdistan Parliamentary Elections

United States

Iran

Military & Security

The United States announced the U.S.-led coalition's military mission in Iraq would conclude by the end of 2025 as the first part of a two-phase transition, though it was not called a "full withdrawal," AP reported on Sept. 27.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concluded his first trip abroad since taking office in July with a trip to Iraq, which took place from Sept. 11-13 and included visits to Baghdad, Iraqi Kurdistan and Basra, Rudaw reported Sept. 13.

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Equatorial Guinea

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Energy

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and other oil producers participating in OPEC+'s voluntary 2.2 million barrel per day production cut agreed to delay the cut's phase out from Oct. 1 to Dec. 1, OPEC+ said in a press release published on its website on Sept. 5.

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Brazil

OPEC+ may delay a planned 180,000 barrel per day increase in oil production in October, Reuters reported on Sept. 4, citing three OPEC+ sources.

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Turkey

The Iraqi military shot down a Turkish drone flying over the northern city of Kirkuk, Reuters reported on Aug. 29.

Iraq, Turkey: Iraq Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Kirkuk

Clashes between the Iraqi army and members of Jund al-Imam, a faction of the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, erupted in Karbala, Iraq, after four of the group's vehicles attempted to pass through an army pedestrian checkpoint during the Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, Al-Monitor reported on Aug. 22.

Iraq: Army Clashes With Popular Mobilization Forces Group

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Baghdad said the announcement of the timeline for the U.S.-led coalition's withdrawal from Iraq would be delayed following the Middle East's "latest developments," Reuters reported Aug. 15.

U.S., Iraq: Announcement of U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Iraq Delayed

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An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Assessments

Ethiopia

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The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

An Israeli air force Samson C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane flies over the Israeli coastal city of Netanya toward northern Israel on Aug. 25, 2024, after Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel's recent preemptive strike on Hezbollah reflects an increasing willingness to strike Iran's regional proxies -- and potentially even Iran itself -- to interdict their impending attacks, raising the risk of a larger regional war.

As It Awaits Iran's Retaliation, Israel Mulls More Preemptive Strikes

A media department run by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is seen inside a mountain north of Iraq's Dohuk province in June 2013.

The offensive will seek to eliminate the threat posed by Kurdish militants near the Gara region, but fears of international backlash will deter Turkey from expanding its efforts into other areas of Iraq or Syria.

What To Make of Turkey's Renewed Offensive in Northern Iraq

Media

Podcasts

What do organizations need to know as this relationship evolves? 

Essential Geopolitics: What to Know About the Future of Turkey-Iraq Relations

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Indonesia

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with its Crew Dragon capsule launches from Launch Complex 39A during Axiom's third private mission at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Jan. 18, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote in Indonesia, U.S.-Iraq Military Negotiations and a U.S. Moon Mission

A woman holding an Iranian flag poses in front of an anti-U.S. mural on a wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Nov. 4, 2023. 

While Iran appears to be pressing its regional proxies to suspend their attacks on U.S. troops, Tehran's continued support of such groups will still make it harder to find a path toward peace with Washington.

Iran-U.S. Tensions Will Remain High, Despite Both Sides' Desire To Avoid a War

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Chile

Japan

A man holds a handout in support of Chile’s proposed new constitution on Dec. 6, 2023, in Santiago.

The Weekly Rundown: A Japan-ASEAN Summit, Constitutional Referendums in Chile and Chad

<p>Iraq rests at the heart of the Middle East, wedged between large and small powers alike. The country is divided into three topographic zones: the riverlands of Mesopotamia, the land between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the western and southern deserts, which reach into Saudi Arabia and Syria; and the highlands of Iraqi Kurdistan. The southern deserts shield Iraq from attack, while the northern highlands impede any attempt at conquest from Anatolia. But the open Syrian Desert provides a route into Iraq from Syria, especially along the Euphrates River, and the country&rsquo;s eastern frontier has few natural barriers to prevent invasion from Iran. The flat riverlands are similarly vulnerable to incursion from any power able to land an army from the Persian Gulf. Historically, foreign forces have used these routes as a means to penetrate Iraq&rsquo;s borders. In premodern times, Iraq&rsquo;s wealth came from its agricultural core, which forms the heart of the Fertile Crescent and stretches to the Persian Gulf. The country&rsquo;s 37 million people are still mostly concentrated in these farmlands today. But the discovery of oil in the north, east and south have shifted Iraq&rsquo;s economic core from the agricultural riverlands to the northern highlands and the Iranian border, bringing prosperity to cities such as Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk. For most of its history, Iraq has been dominated by its neighbors, which have left behind unique cultural, religious and ethnic legacies. The Sunni Ottoman Turks and the Shiite Safavid Persians helped produce the country&rsquo;s modern Sunni and Shiite communities, while the sparsely inhabited western desert continues to have tribal and sectarian links to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Some of these groups have kept their relationships with Iraq&rsquo;s neighbors, which leverage those ties for their own strategic purposes. Meanwhile, in Iraq&rsquo;s northern highlands, the indigenous Kurds have managed to maintain a cohesive identity throughout centuries of foreign domination. This isolation occasionally gives rise to Kurdish secessionism. As the northern highlands drift further from the central government&rsquo;s control, the Sunni, Shiite, Christian and other communities of the riverlands and deserts jockey with one another for dominance of the state. Iraq&rsquo;s geographic challenge is therefore to protect its vulnerable oil fields while managing a diverse population that is susceptible to external influence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Iraq: KDP Wins Largest Bloc in Kurdistan Parliamentary Elections

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Global: OPEC+ Delays Voluntary Production Cut Phase Out by Two Months

Global: OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Production Increase

Iraq, Turkey: Iraq Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Kirkuk

Iraq: Army Clashes With Popular Mobilization Forces Group

U.S., Iraq: Announcement of U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Iraq Delayed

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