Iran

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

Over the last two months, the United Arab Emirates has carried out multiple military strikes against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 11, citing people familiar with the matter. 

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

United States

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

On May 7, senior U.S. officials told a Fox News reporter that the United States had struck Iran's Qeshm island and Bandar Abbas, though they added that this was not a resumption of the war, and the strikes appear to be limited in scope.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. rights to use Prince Sultan Air Base and Saudi airspace to support President Donald Trump's short-lived Project Freedom guiding mission in the Strait of Hormuz, NBC News reported on May 6.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Sudan

Egypt

A spokesperson for the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, blamed Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates for drone attacks on Khartoum, noting that the drone had been identified as Emirati property and launched from Ethiopia's Bahir Dar airport, Sudan Tribune reported on May 5.

Sudan: SAF Accuses Ethiopia, UAE of Drone Strikes on Khartoum

Israel

The Emirati Ministry of Defense said in multiple May 4 statements that the United Arab Emirates' air defense systems were engaging with Iranian missiles and drones, which appear to have caused a fire at an oil facility in Fujairah.

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

The United States began a mission to "guide" stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, calling on them to transit in waters near Oman through an "enhanced security area" that could include guided-missile destroyers, aircraft and increased troop presence, though details are limited, AP reported on May 4.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Begins 'Guiding' Mission for Vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Launches Attacks

Algeria

Iraq

Kuwait

Kazakhstan

Russia

Energy

The seven OPEC+ members implementing voluntary production cuts agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in June, according to a statement released on May 3. 

Global: OPEC+ Agrees to Modest but Symbolic Production Hike in First Meeting Without the UAE

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Economics

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's General Inspectorate of Mines announced plans to create a paramilitary "mining guard" to protect mining sites and mineral shipments across the country with funding from the United States and the United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg reported on April 27.

Congo: Authorities To Establish Paramilitary Unit To Protect Mining Sites With U.S., UAE Funding

Snapshots

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Assessments

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Bahrain

Qatar

The city skyline in Dubai is seen at sunset.

Although Gulf capitals are increasingly investing in mid-tier autonomy and offensive capabilities, achieving total strategic independence remains constrained by their enduring need for high-end American systems.

The Future of GCC Defense and Security Strategies in a Changing Middle East

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Flatlining population growth will leave the Gulf Arab states reliant on specialized, high-tech militaries that are supplanted by foreign forces, exposing them to various long-term security vulnerabilities.

The Demographic Drag on Gulf States' Military Strength

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

China

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Yemen

Europe

India

A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Cargo ships and tankers are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, on Feb. 25, 2026. 

Although most of the Middle East's crucial oil and gas assets have so far been spared, a prolonged conflict would raise the risk of material supply disruptions and price shocks, particularly for LNG markets.

How Will the Iran War Impact the World's Oil and Gas Supplies?

The Crown Plaza on March 1 showing damage from an Iranian military strike in Manama, Bahrain. Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

Iran's attacks will push the Gulf Arab states more toward security alignment with the United States, and threaten their status as a secure investment destination.

The Implications of Iran's Attacks on the Gulf

Columns

On Geopolitics

Somalia

Lebanon

Libya

Syria

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

The United Arab Emirates is located on the southwestern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. To its west is Saudi Arabia and to its east is Oman. Iran is only a few miles north, across the Persian Gulf. With desert in its west and south, dry mountains in its east and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the north, the United Arab Emirates' climate is unable to support agriculture beyond small-scale oases and camel herds. The country is divided into three broad regions: the coastal harbors of the Gulf, bounded by the sandy desert of the Rub al-Khali, or Empty Quarter; the interior, where settlements cluster around oases; and the northeast, which is broken up by the Al Hajar Mountains.      There are no natural rivers and few timber supplies in the United Arab Emirates, and nearly all the country's drinkable water is trapped beneath oases. In the premodern era, citizens mainly survived off piracy, trade and pearling, and the most powerful settlement was the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah near the Al Hajar Mountains. After the discovery of oil in the 1962, power shifted permanently to the more southern Abu Dhabi, which holds 94 percent of the country's proven oil reserves. These coastal cities are the core of the country. Founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan established the United Arab Emirates &mdash; the Arab world's only successful federation &mdash; in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2004. At that time, his son and current president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan took over power.      The United Arab Emirates seeks to maximize its independence while warding off the influence and control of more powerful regional players Saudi Arabia and Iran. To do this, it has leveraged its energy supply and strategic location to secure alliances with extra-regional powers like the United States. Utilizing its oil receipts, the United Arab Emirates has imported foreign labor from South and East Asia, as well as the Arab world. Combining that labor with global technology, the country has rapidly transformed itself from a desert backwater to a key transport hub, tourist destination and regional military power.  

SITUATION REPORTS

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

Sudan: SAF Accuses Ethiopia, UAE of Drone Strikes on Khartoum

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

U.S., Iran: U.S. Begins 'Guiding' Mission for Vessels in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Launches Attacks

Global: OPEC+ Agrees to Modest but Symbolic Production Hike in First Meeting Without the UAE

Congo: Authorities To Establish Paramilitary Unit To Protect Mining Sites With U.S., UAE Funding

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