Sudan

United States

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

Politics

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that members of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and allied militias had committed genocide in Sudan, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Sudan: U.S. Accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of Committing Genocide

Turkey

The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan welcomed Turkish proposals to mediate the dispute between Sudan's SAF-led government and the United Arab Emirates, which is widely seen as providing military support to the SAF's rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Le Monde reported on Jan. 6.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE  

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Venezuela

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Economics

Energy

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Ethiopia

Egypt

In a Nov. 30 post on Truth Social, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to place 100% tariffs on members of the BRICS trade bloc if they backed a new BRICS currency to "replace" the U.S. dollar in international trade.

U.S., BRICS: Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on BRICS Countries Over Proposed Joint Currency

Israel

Security forces arrested three Uzbek nationals in the United Arab Emirates in connection with the alleged murder of Israeli-Moldovan citizen Rabbi Zvi Kogan, Reuters reported on Nov. 24.

UAE, Israel: Rabbi Allegedly Killed by Foreign Nationals in UAE

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

South Africa

Uganda

Bolivia

Brazil

Cuba

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

India

The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, adopted its summit declaration, which noted the creation of a BRICS "partner country" status, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

The annual BRICS summit under the motto "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security" commenced in Russia's city of Kazan and will issue its final declaration on Oct. 23, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 22.

Russia: BRICS Summit Commences in Kazan

Assessments

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Jordan

Qatar

Syria

Tunisia

Yemen

Taiwan

Ukraine

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

As Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 enters its final five years, the Saudi government is likely to deepen reforms designed to improve the country's economic attractiveness and performance. But as it struggles to compete with its neighbors' social reforms and absorb potential global geopolitical shocks, Riyadh could adopt more coercive policies at times.

Evaluating Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 as It Enters the Home Stretch

Bahrain

Oman

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Europe

Israeli soldiers guard a barrier, silhouetted against afternoon sun.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As Gaza moves closer to a post-war reality, political limitations in Israel and competing interests abroad muddy the waters of the region's future governance.

For Israel, the Challenge of Gaza's Future Governance Deepens

Snapshots

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

A graph of the ruble exchange rate against the background of the Russian flag and paper banknotes. 

A new U.S. sanctions package on Russia raises risks of secondary sanctions for financial institutions around the world, leading more companies to cut off ties to Russian entities.

With a New Sanctions Package, the U.S. Squeezes Russian Trade

The Mohajer 6 drone is displayed on Aug. 23, 2023, in Tehran, Iran. Through a sort of drone diplomacy, Tehran hopes to rekindle dormant ties with the Sudanese government to aid the latter in its ongoing civil war.

A stronger Sudanese government negotiating hand would result in a power-sharing structure reducing Rapid Support Forces, and by extension, UAE, influence.

Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces

The United Arab Emirates is located on the southwestern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. To its west is Saudi Arabia and to its east is Oman. Iran is only a few miles north, across the Persian Gulf. With desert in its west and south, dry mountains in its east and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the north, the United Arab Emirates' climate is unable to support agriculture beyond small-scale oases and camel herds. The country is divided into three broad regions: the coastal harbors of the Gulf, bounded by the sandy desert of the Rub al-Khali, or Empty Quarter; the interior, where settlements cluster around oases; and the northeast, which is broken up by the Al Hajar Mountains.      There are no natural rivers and few timber supplies in the United Arab Emirates, and nearly all the country's drinkable water is trapped beneath oases. In the premodern era, citizens mainly survived off piracy, trade and pearling, and the most powerful settlement was the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah near the Al Hajar Mountains. After the discovery of oil in the 1962, power shifted permanently to the more southern Abu Dhabi, which holds 94 percent of the country's proven oil reserves. These coastal cities are the core of the country. Founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan established the United Arab Emirates &mdash; the Arab world's only successful federation &mdash; in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2004. At that time, his son and current president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan took over power.      The United Arab Emirates seeks to maximize its independence while warding off the influence and control of more powerful regional players Saudi Arabia and Iran. To do this, it has leveraged its energy supply and strategic location to secure alliances with extra-regional powers like the United States. Utilizing its oil receipts, the United Arab Emirates has imported foreign labor from South and East Asia, as well as the Arab world. Combining that labor with global technology, the country has rapidly transformed itself from a desert backwater to a key transport hub, tourist destination and regional military power.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: U.S. Accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of Committing Genocide

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

U.S., BRICS: Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on BRICS Countries Over Proposed Joint Currency

UAE, Israel: Rabbi Allegedly Killed by Foreign Nationals in UAE

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Russia: BRICS Summit Commences in Kazan

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