Assessments

Bangladesh

Maldives

Sri Lanka

International Monetary Fund representative Rahul Anand (center) speaks during a press conference in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Nov. 9, 2022. 

Economics

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives all face varying degrees of financial and economic risks in the years ahead unless they enact far-reaching (and politically unpopular) reforms.

Where Are South Asia's Most Vulnerable Economies Headed?

China

India

Police stand guard in Male, the Maldives, as protesters take part in an anti-India rally organized by the island nation's opposition coalition on March 25, 2022. 

Politics

The September ballot will decipher whether the island nation deepens its historically close ties with India, or drifts toward China and religious extremism.

What's at Stake in the Maldives' Presidential Election

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in Male during a visit to the island nation on June 8, 2019.

The rise of anti-India anger and protests could open the door for China to reassert its influence in the strategic island nation.

With an Ex-President at the Helm, the Maldives’ ‘India Out’ Campaign Gains Steam

Guidance

United States

United Kingdom

Ireland

Russia

Lebanon

Environment, Science & Technology

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Talks, the Lunar New Year Begins

COVID-19

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Bhutan

Nepal

India is beating a path to its neighbors in an effort to ensure China doesn't muscle in on New Delhi's backyard.

India's Own Worst Enemy

Shoring up New Delhi's influence around South Asia is top on Narendra Modi's to-do list. Achieving success, however, will depend on fending off China and its Belt and Road Initiative.

Wary of China, Modi Courts India's Neighbors

The New Silk Road

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

Pakistan

With China ready to open the purse strings, the days when India could dominate South Asia exclusively are long gone.

New Delhi is eager to maintain its dominance over the smaller states of the subcontinent, but it'll have a hard time competing with Chinese money.

Why the Belt and Road Fuels India's Fears of Encirclement

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

2019 Annual Forecast

India and the Maldives signed the largest-ever infrastructure deal for the construction of a roughly 7 km (or 4 mi)-long bridge and causeway linking two of the latter’s islands, The Hindu reported on Aug 26.

India, Maldives: Countries Sign Largest-Ever Infrastructure Deal

China in Transition

Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Maldivian Defense Minister Mariya Didi met with Sri Lankan Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne in Colombo to re-engage in a trilateral maritime cooperation agreement, The Wire India reported Nov. 29. 

India, Sri Lanka, Maldives: Countries Revive Trilateral Maritime and Security Agreement

Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited the Maldives for a two-day discussion on ways the two countries could further strengthen their relations, ThePrint reported Nov. 10.

India, Maldives: Top Officials Meet to Discuss Strengthening Ties

India has announced a $500 million package of “connectivity measures" for the Maldives -- specifically air, sea, intra-island and telecommunications -- to help mitigate the economic fallout from COVID-19, The Hindu reported Aug. 13. 

India, Maldives: New Delhi to Invest $500 Million in Infrastructure Measures

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the Maldives and Sri Lanka on his first trip abroad since securing re-election, signaling a clear focus by the Indian government on regional outreach against the backdrop of China's infrastructural push into South Asia.

India: Modi Trip Showcases New Delhi's Regional Push

Technical teams from India are currently visiting the Maldives to put multiple units of a coastal surveillance radar system into operation, The Economic Times reported April 23.

Maldives: Work Advances on Indian Coastal Surveillance Radar System

Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's Maldivian Democratic Party won 65 of the 87 seats in the country's parliament in April 6 elections, the Maldives Independent reported April 8.

Maldives: President's Party Wins Majority in Parliamentary Elections

The Maldives will hold parliamentary elections where President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is seeking to garner a majority for his Maldivian Democratic Party in the 87-seat parliament, Reuters reported April 4.

Maldives: President Seeks to Build Majority in Parliamentary Elections

Afghanistan

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South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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Malaysia

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Greece

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Eritrea

France

Grenada

Mongolia

The Maldives is an archipelago located 370 miles southwest of India astride key shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. It is the smallest and least populated country in South Asia, consisting of 1,192 coral islands grouped into 26 atolls with a total land area of 298 square kilometers (115 square miles). The Maldives has an average elevation of 7 feet and is the world's lowest-lying country. As a result, rising sea levels pose an existential threat to the Maldives and a key geographic challenge.    The capital and most important city in the Maldives is Male, where one-third of the country's 417,500 people live. Islam is the state religion, while Dhivehi is the language spoken by Maldivians, comprising the vast majority of the country's demographics. The first inhabitants of the Maldives arrived from Sri Lanka and India in the fifth century B.C. Subsequently, at various points in its history, the country was under Portuguese and Dutch influence before achieving independence from its status as a British protectorate in 1965. President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom ruled the Maldives for 30 years until 2008, when a new constitution transformed the country into a constitutional republic.    Aside from climate change, the Maldives' geographic challenge is to court foreign investment to build an indigenous economy in a country poorly connected by roads and bridges, and to do so as it strives to maintain sovereignty amid great power politics in the Indian Ocean region. A high-end tourism industry is a critical driver of growth in an economy traditionally dominated by fishing.

SITUATION REPORTS

India, Maldives: Countries Sign Largest-Ever Infrastructure Deal

India, Sri Lanka, Maldives: Countries Revive Trilateral Maritime and Security Agreement

India, Maldives: Top Officials Meet to Discuss Strengthening Ties

India, Maldives: New Delhi to Invest $500 Million in Infrastructure Measures

India: Modi Trip Showcases New Delhi's Regional Push

Maldives: Work Advances on Indian Coastal Surveillance Radar System

Maldives: President's Party Wins Majority in Parliamentary Elections

Maldives: President Seeks to Build Majority in Parliamentary Elections

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