China

Maldives

India

Military & Security

The Indian navy officially commissioned its latest naval facility, "INS Jatayu," on Minicoy within the Lakshadweep islands, Hindustan Times reported on March 6.

India: Navy Commissions INS Jatayu Naval Facility in Lakshadweep Islands

The Maldivian Ministry of Defense announced that the Maldives had entered into a free "military assistance" agreement with China, Bloomberg reported on March 5. 

Maldives: China and Maldives Sign Defense Deal

Politics

The opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), the primary opposition party with a majority in the Maldivian parliament, intends to propose a motion for the impeachment of President Mohamed Muizzu, The Times of India reported on Jan. 29. 

Maldives: President Muizzu May Face Impeachment

The Maldivian foreign ministry issued a statement on Jan. 23 granting permission for the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 03 to dock in Male in February, although the ministry added that the vessel would not engage in any research activities in "Maldivian waters."

Maldives: Government Grants Permission for Chinese Research Vessel to Dock

During talks with Indian officials, the Maldives called for the withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

Maldives: Government Calls for Removal of Indian Troops by March 15

The Maldives' new president, Mohamed Muizzu, met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on Jan. 10, where they agreed to elevate their countries' ties to what Xi characterized as a ''comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership'' and signed ''20 key agreements'' related to climate, agriculture and infrastructure, Aljazeera reported Jan. 11.

Maldives: New President Meets With Xi, Agrees to Bolster Ties With China

Economics

India's Ministry of External Affairs summoned the high commissioner of the Maldives on Jan. 8, the day after the Maldivian government suspended three deputy ministers for posting online that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a "clown," "terrorist" and "puppet of Israel" on Jan. 6, The Times of India reported on Jan. 8. 

Maldives, India: Diplomatic Spat Over Maldivian Officials' Critique of Modi Continues

The Maldives' opposition presidential candidate Mohamed Muizzu beat incumbent candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a runoff election, Al Jazeera reported on Sept. 30.

Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu Wins Presidential Election

Snapshots

 A commuter in Male, the Maldives, takes pictures of a decorated wall along a street ahead of the country's presidential election on Sept. 6, 2023.

The Sept. 30 presidential race will decipher whether New Delhi or Beijing has more influence over the strategic island nation in the Indian Ocean.

An Election Runoff Could Alter the Maldives' Balance Between China and India

Assessments

United States

Japan

Marshall Islands

Solomon Islands

South Korea

Europe

EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis speaks March 16, 2023, in Brussels.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, China-Japan-South Korea Talks

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

International Monetary Fund representative Rahul Anand (center) speaks during a press conference in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Nov. 9, 2022. 

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives all face varying degrees of financial and economic risks in the years ahead unless they enact far-reaching (and politically unpopular) reforms.

Where Are South Asia's Most Vulnerable Economies Headed?

Police stand guard in Male, the Maldives, as protesters take part in an anti-India rally organized by the island nation's opposition coalition on March 25, 2022. 

The September ballot will decipher whether the island nation deepens its historically close ties with India, or drifts toward China and religious extremism.

What's at Stake in the Maldives' Presidential Election

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in Male during a visit to the island nation on June 8, 2019.

The rise of anti-India anger and protests could open the door for China to reassert its influence in the strategic island nation.

With an Ex-President at the Helm, the Maldives’ ‘India Out’ Campaign Gains Steam

Guidance

United Kingdom

Ireland

Russia

Lebanon

COVID-19

Environment, Science & Technology

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Talks, the Lunar New Year Begins

Bhutan

Nepal

India is beating a path to its neighbors in an effort to ensure China doesn't muscle in on New Delhi's backyard.

The New Silk Road

India's Own Worst Enemy

Shoring up New Delhi's influence around South Asia is top on Narendra Modi's to-do list. Achieving success, however, will depend on fending off China and its Belt and Road Initiative.

Wary of China, Modi Courts India's Neighbors

Pakistan

With China ready to open the purse strings, the days when India could dominate South Asia exclusively are long gone.

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

New Delhi is eager to maintain its dominance over the smaller states of the subcontinent, but it'll have a hard time competing with Chinese money.

Why the Belt and Road Fuels India's Fears of Encirclement

Mauritius

Seychelles

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, will be preoccupied with elections in 2019 and Chinese President Xi Jinping with the United States, but each will continue his country's competition for advantage across South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

China in Transition

Beijing's economic and military expansion into South Asia challenges New Delhi's ability to maintain its influence over its neighbors.

India Guards Against China's Encroaching Shadow

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih upset the sitting president to win the Maldives' recent elections. Beyond the Indian Ocean archipelago, the result could have profound effects on the rivalry between India and China.

Maldives: Surprise Election Result Could Upset Regional Balances

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Pakistan is trying to increase its influence in three South Asian states, as power in the region shifts away from India.

 Pakistan: Islamabad Takes Advantage of Resentment of India

China's increased military presence in the Indian Ocean gives the country more options to respond to the crisis in the Maldives, in addition to challenging New Delhi's influence in the region.

China, Maldives: Beijing's Boats Send a Message to India

The Maldives is an archipelago located 370 miles southwest of India astride key shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. It is the smallest and least populated country in South Asia, consisting of 1,192 coral islands grouped into 26 atolls with a total land area of 298 square kilometers (115 square miles). The Maldives has an average elevation of 7 feet and is the world's lowest-lying country. As a result, rising sea levels pose an existential threat to the Maldives and a key geographic challenge.    The capital and most important city in the Maldives is Male, where one-third of the country's 417,500 people live. Islam is the state religion, while Dhivehi is the language spoken by Maldivians, comprising the vast majority of the country's demographics. The first inhabitants of the Maldives arrived from Sri Lanka and India in the fifth century B.C. Subsequently, at various points in its history, the country was under Portuguese and Dutch influence before achieving independence from its status as a British protectorate in 1965. President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom ruled the Maldives for 30 years until 2008, when a new constitution transformed the country into a constitutional republic.    Aside from climate change, the Maldives' geographic challenge is to court foreign investment to build an indigenous economy in a country poorly connected by roads and bridges, and to do so as it strives to maintain sovereignty amid great power politics in the Indian Ocean region. A high-end tourism industry is a critical driver of growth in an economy traditionally dominated by fishing.

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Navy Commissions INS Jatayu Naval Facility in Lakshadweep Islands

Maldives: China and Maldives Sign Defense Deal

Maldives: President Muizzu May Face Impeachment

Maldives: Government Grants Permission for Chinese Research Vessel to Dock

Maldives: Government Calls for Removal of Indian Troops by March 15

Maldives: New President Meets With Xi, Agrees to Bolster Ties With China

Maldives, India: Diplomatic Spat Over Maldivian Officials' Critique of Modi Continues

Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu Wins Presidential Election

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