2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Assessments

Djibouti

United States

China

Iran

Ships carrying Chinese military personnel depart Zhanjiang, in south China's Guangdong province, on July 11, 2017, bound for a support base in Djibouti. If tensions continue to escalate in the Persian Gulf, China may find it has no choice but to have a security presence in the Middle East.

Military & Security

To guard its energy and security interests in the contentious waters, Beijing may find it has no choice but to join a U.S.-led escort operation, or perhaps even to launch its own.

China May Set Its Navy on Course for the Persian Gulf

Modernizing China’s Military

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

France

Ethiopia is hoping to roll out a navy with France's support, yet it will face challenges -- not least of all because it lacks a coast.

East African Integration

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Nearly three decades after it lost its navy, East Africa's biggest heavyweight wants to reestablish an armed maritime fleet. In so doing, though, its lack of sea access will be only one of its problems.

Landlocked Ethiopia Charts a Course for a Navy

Snapshots

Kenya

With foreign companies salivating at business opportunities in Africa, and Ethiopia in particular, France's president is leading a trade delegation to Addis Ababa and neighboring capitals in the hopes of sealing some deals.

France: Macron Looks to Drum Up Business in the Horn of Africa

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

Profound changes are afoot in the Horn of Africa -- something that won't escape the attentions of great powers like the United States.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The United States wants to draw down its presence in Africa, but militancy -- as well as the interest of its greatest rivals -- will prevent it from abandoning the Horn of Africa.

Washington Wakes Up to East Africa's Importance

2019 Annual Forecast

2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2018 Second-Quarter Forecast

Economics

Djibouti’s finance minister says the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia has reduced Djiboutian trade by 80% and cost the country $1.7 billion, approximately half of its gross domestic product, BBC reported Nov. 18.

Djibouti: Ethiopian War Hurts Regional Economies 

Supply Chains

Security

Energy

Ethiopia's parliament approved a $4 billion natural gas pipeline agreement with the government of Djibouti, The Reporter reported on Dec. 28. 

Ethiopia: Parliament Approves Deal for Natural Gas Pipeline to Djibouti

Ethiopia is planning to establish its future navy in Djibouti, according to a Dec. 2 report by Capital Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa to Establish Navy in Djibouti, Report Says

The African Development Bank has approved a $98 million grant for the construction of the initial 60 kilometers of a road corridor between Ethiopia and Djibouti, Reuters reported Aug. 7.

Djibouti, Ethiopia: African Development Bank Approves $98 Million Grant for Transport Link

United Arab Emirates

The London Court of International Arbitration has ordered Djibouti to pay roughly $385 million in compensation to Dubai-based DP World following a breach of contract in which the East African country suddenly ended a concession to the company, France 24 reported April 4. 

Djibouti: International Arbitration Court Awards $385 Million in Compensation to Emirati Company

French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing for his March 11 trip to the Horn of Africa, where he will visit Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya, RFI reported March 6.

France: Macron Prepares for a Visit to the Horn of Africa

Globalization

China in Transition

Two U.S. senators have sent a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressing their concern about Chinese involvement in Djibouti, Reuters reported Nov. 13. 

U.S.: Senators Send Letter Expressing Concern Over Chinese Investment in Djibouti

The New Silk Road

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is meeting Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to follow up on tripartite talks from September, the Addis Standard reported Nov. 8.

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia: Leaders Meet Amid Ethnic Violence

Afghanistan

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Ukraine

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

India

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Germany

Iraq

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Brazil

Burundi

Finland

Israel

Nepal

Cameroon

Canada

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Libya

Russia

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

Japan

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Saudi Arabia

Grenada

Mongolia

Djibouti is an East African country located on the Horn of Africa. It is surrounded by Eritrea to the north, Somalia to the south, Ethiopia to the east and the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to the west.     Throughout its history, Djibouti's geographic position has profoundly shaped the country. The location of the Bab el-Mandeb strait enticed French colonization of the area in the 19th century as the rise of maritime trade and the completion of the Suez Canal drove European interest in the region. Because France was unable to link its port in Djibouti with its holdings in Central and West Africa, Djibouti remained limited in size under the European power. After it achieved independence from France in 1977, the country's leaders were forced to grapple with nation building. Managing the country's internal divides has made this difficult, however, and the country fought a civil war in the 1990s as the country's main ethnic groups battled for political supremacy. Managing these divisions and resisting interference from regional neighbors seeking to destabilize the country are key challenges for Djibouti.     Another crucial challenge is maximizing profits from the country's coveted geostrategic location. Djibouti hosts military bases from numerous foreign countries, including France, China, Japan and the United States. Because the country is relatively lacking in resources, generating revenue from its position will remain a key concern for Djibouti going forward. Relatedly, Djibouti wants to develop itself into the clear hub of logistics in East Africa. Already, the country benefits greatly from being nearly the sole conduit for Ethiopia's imports and exports. Consequently, Djibouti will need to continue proving its attractiveness to outside powers such as China and the United Arab Emirates as it seeks additional infrastructure developments to further its goals in the years ahead. 

Female

Male

SITUATION REPORTS

Djibouti: Ethiopian War Hurts Regional Economies

Ethiopia: Parliament Approves Deal for Natural Gas Pipeline to Djibouti

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa to Establish Navy in Djibouti, Report Says

Djibouti, Ethiopia: African Development Bank Approves $98 Million Grant for Transport Link

Djibouti: International Arbitration Court Awards $385 Million in Compensation to Emirati Company

France: Macron Prepares for a Visit to the Horn of Africa

U.S.: Senators Send Letter Expressing Concern Over Chinese Investment in Djibouti

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia: Leaders Meet Amid Ethnic Violence

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