Mozambique

Politics

Supporters of opposition party Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) protested across Mozambique on Oct. 27 against local elections held earlier in October, which opposition leaders claim were fraudulent, Reuters reported the same day.

Mozambique: Protests in Nampula and Maputo Portend More Unrest Ahead of 2024 Elections 

Mozambique's ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party claimed that it had won local elections in every municipality except Beira, which some Frelimo elites allegedly decided at an emergency meeting would be "given" to the opposition Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), Zitamar News reported Oct. 15.

Mozambique: Frelimo Claims Landslide Victory in Local Elections, Opposition Alleges Fraud 

Kenya

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Economics

Energy

Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo wrapped a weeklong Africa tour during which he signed vaccine export and energy deals with Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 24.

Indonesia: Jokowi Lands Deals With Several African Countries

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Military & Security

Leaders from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed to send troops to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and extend the SADC deployment in Mozambique by 12 months, The East African reported on Aug. 18.

Sub-Saharan Africa: SADC Leaders Agree to Congo Deployment, Mozambique Extension

U.S. oil and gas giant ExxonMobil is on track to make a final investment decision on the Rovuma liquified natural gas (LNG) export project in Mozambique in 2025, Bloomberg reported on July 11.

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Hopes to Make Rovuma LNG Decision in 2025

French energy company TotalEnergies announced that an independent humanitarian report found improvements in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, where the company's stalled liquified natural gas (LNG) project is located, Bloomberg reported on May 23.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies May Resume LNG Project Following Publication of Humanitarian Report

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi said it is safe to restart the liquified natural gas (LNG) project in Cabo Delgado province that has been stalled since April 2021, Al Jazeera reported on April 26.

Mozambique: President Says Cabo Delgado Safe to Restart LNG Project 

The CEO of Italian oil and natural gas contractor Saipem, Alessandro Puliti, said his company expects to "gradually" restart activities on the stalled Mozambique liquified natural gas (LNG) project in July, Reuters reported Feb. 28.

Mozambique: Saipem Reaches Agreement to Resume Mozambique LNG Construction in July

Assessments

Opposition supporters gather to protest the results of the local elections in Maputo, Mozambique, on Oct. 17, 2023.

Despite recent opposition protests, the ruling party will likely maintain its dominance in the general elections and beyond, bolstered by an influx of revenue from the expected resumption of a major LNG project.

Mozambique's Disputed Local Elections Offer a Preview for the 2024 National Ballot

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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

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A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

On Security

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Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

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The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

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The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

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The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

The Jihadist Wars

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

Destroyed homes are seen in the village of Aldeia da Paz outside Macomia, Mozambique, after a militant attack on Aug. 24, 2019. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Militants in Mozambique will continue to gain ground near the liquified natural gas (LNG) park under construction in the country’s north until the government deems the economic and political threat large enough to warrant foreign support. 

In Mozambique, Militants Will Gain Ground Until They Threaten the Government

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2020 Annual Forecast as 2021 Approaches

Army vehicles patrol the roads on the outskirts of a village in northern Mozambique on May 26, 2016. 

_Energy

The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.

To Protect Its Energy Projects, Total Joins Mozambique's Counterterrorism Fight 

Soldiers patrol the streets in Mocimboa da Praia, Mozambique, on March 7, 2018. 

Recent militant activity in northern Mozambique suggests a possible evolution of capabilities that could eventually grow to threaten LNG operations in Cabo Delgado.

An Insurgent Offensive Looms Large Over Mozambique's Energy Projects

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique: Protests in Nampula and Maputo Portend More Unrest Ahead of 2024 Elections

Mozambique: Frelimo Claims Landslide Victory in Local Elections, Opposition Alleges Fraud

Indonesia: Jokowi Lands Deals With Several African Countries

Sub-Saharan Africa: SADC Leaders Agree to Congo Deployment, Mozambique Extension

Mozambique: ExxonMobil Hopes to Make Rovuma LNG Decision in 2025

Mozambique: TotalEnergies May Resume LNG Project Following Publication of Humanitarian Report

Mozambique: President Says Cabo Delgado Safe to Restart LNG Project

Mozambique: Saipem Reaches Agreement to Resume Mozambique LNG Construction in July

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