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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Economics

Military & Security

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GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

Rwanda

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

On Security

Somalia

Indonesia

Malaysia

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Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

Guidance

Australia

China

France

Iran

The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

Greece

Belgium

Poland

The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

COVID-19

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

Energy

The Jihadist Wars

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

Destroyed homes are seen in the village of Aldeia da Paz outside Macomia, Mozambique, after a militant attack on Aug. 24, 2019. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Militants in Mozambique will continue to gain ground near the liquified natural gas (LNG) park under construction in the country’s north until the government deems the economic and political threat large enough to warrant foreign support. 

In Mozambique, Militants Will Gain Ground Until They Threaten the Government

Argentina

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2020 Annual Forecast as 2021 Approaches

Army vehicles patrol the roads on the outskirts of a village in northern Mozambique on May 26, 2016. 

The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.

To Protect Its Energy Projects, Total Joins Mozambique's Counterterrorism Fight 

_Energy

Soldiers patrol the streets in Mocimboa da Praia, Mozambique, on March 7, 2018. 

Recent militant activity in northern Mozambique suggests a possible evolution of capabilities that could eventually grow to threaten LNG operations in Cabo Delgado.

An Insurgent Offensive Looms Large Over Mozambique's Energy Projects

A member of ISCAP is seen holding a so-called Prophet's Banner on March 24, 2020, in Quissanga, Mozambique.

The growing power of Islamic State militants combined with the Mozambican government's limitations and seeming denial of the threat do not portend well. 

Reevaluating the Jihadist Threat in Mozambique

French energy company TotalEnergies announced that an independent humanitarian report found improvements in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, where the company's stalled liquified natural gas (LNG) project is located, Bloomberg reported on May 23.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies May Resume LNG Project Following Publication of Humanitarian Report

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi said it is safe to restart the liquified natural gas (LNG) project in Cabo Delgado province that has been stalled since April 2021, Al Jazeera reported on April 26.

Mozambique: President Says Cabo Delgado Safe to Restart LNG Project 

The CEO of Italian oil and natural gas contractor Saipem, Alessandro Puliti, said his company expects to "gradually" restart activities on the stalled Mozambique liquified natural gas (LNG) project in July, Reuters reported Feb. 28.

Mozambique: Saipem Reaches Agreement to Resume Mozambique LNG Construction in July

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed on July 14 to extend its mission in Mozambique on an interim basis until the SADC heads of state reconvene in August, Reuters reported July 15.

Mozambique: SADC Extends Troop Deployment in Mozambique

One of TotalEnergies' subcontractors, South Africa-based construction company Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO), is reportedly returning to a liquified natural gas project in northern Mozambique's Afungi peninsula in Cabo Delgado province, Africa Intelligence reported June 7.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies' Subcontractor Reportedly Returning to Mozambique LNG Site

ExxonMobil told Mozambique officials that it would only resume the final investment decision process for the Rovuma LNG project after TotalEnergies lifts its force majeure on the construction of its Mozambique LNG project, Diario Economico reported April 20.

Mozambique: ExxonMobil to Resume FID Process on Rovuma LNG After TotalEnergies Lifts Force Majeure

The International Monetary Fund and Mozambique reached a staff-level agreement over a $470 million facility focused on economic growth, fiscal sustainability and governance reforms, Reuters reported March 28.

Mozambique: Government Reaches Staff-Level Deal With IMF

Mozambican officials announced that police killed Tanzanian jihadist leader Tuahil Muhidim and another suspected militant in a Jan. 29 raid on Muhidim's hideout, The Defense Post reported Jan. 31.

Mozambique: Death of Jihadist Leader Could Portend Improving Regional Security

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Armenia

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Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Mongolia

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

Female

Male

Lesotho

Namibia

Eswatini

Zambia

South African and African National Congress President Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC's 110th anniversary celebrations Jan. 8, 2022, at the Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane. Divisions within the ANC are likely to inhibit Ramaphosa's ability to pass structural economic reforms but in our baseline scenario, South Africa will avoid a major debt crisis before 2024.

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique: TotalEnergies May Resume LNG Project Following Publication of Humanitarian Report

Mozambique: President Says Cabo Delgado Safe to Restart LNG Project

Mozambique: Saipem Reaches Agreement to Resume Mozambique LNG Construction in July

Mozambique: SADC Extends Troop Deployment in Mozambique

Mozambique: TotalEnergies' Subcontractor Reportedly Returning to Mozambique LNG Site

Mozambique: ExxonMobil to Resume FID Process on Rovuma LNG After TotalEnergies Lifts Force Majeure

Mozambique: Government Reaches Staff-Level Deal With IMF

Mozambique: Death of Jihadist Leader Could Portend Improving Regional Security

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