Mozambique

Rwanda

Europe

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

French oil major TotalEnergies hired security guards from Isco Seguranca, a company linked to Rwanda's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front party, or RPF, to protect the site of its Mozambique LNG, the Financial Times reported on July 17.

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project 

Tanzania

Tanzania President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi pledged to bolster bilateral trade and energy cooperation, IPP Media reported July 2.

Tanzania, Mozambique: Countries Pledge To Bolster Bilateral Trade, Portending Sustained Counterterrorism Cooperation 

The European Union is considering doubling its funding to 40 million euros for the recently reinforced Rwandan troops who, with the help of Mozambiquan government forces, are fighting Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado, Club of Mozambique reported June 17.

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

United Arab Emirates

Portugal

In a May 22 statement, the United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, said it agreed to purchase Portuguese energy corporation Galp Energia's 10% stake in Mozambique's Area 4 offshore concession for $650 million.

Mozambique: ADNOC Acquires 10% Stake in Mozambique's Area 4 Block

Rwanda is expanding its troop deployment in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province as part of efforts to counter Islamic State Mozambique Province, Club of Mozambique reported on May 20.

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

The European Council extended the mandate of its military training mission in Mozambique until June 30, 2026, allocating over 14 million euros ($15.15 million) for this period, Club of Mozambique reported on May 14.

Mozambique: EU Training Mission Extension Clears Path for Transition to Military Assistance Mission

Democratic Republic of the Congo

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended the deployment of 1,495 members of the South African National Defense Force stationed in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province under the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, from April 16 to Dec. 31, Reuters reported on April 24. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

South Africa completed the withdrawal of its 1,500 troops deployed to Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado region as part of the Southern African Development Community's military mission in Mozambique, or SAMIM, Zitamar News reported on April 16. 

Mozambique: South Africa Completes Withdrawal From Cabo Delgado

Assessments

Opposition supporters gather to protest the results of the local elections in Maputo, Mozambique, on Oct. 17, 2023.

Politics

Despite recent opposition protests, the ruling party will likely maintain its dominance in the general elections and beyond, bolstered by an influx of revenue from the expected resumption of a major LNG project.

Mozambique's Disputed Local Elections Offer a Preview for the 2024 National Ballot

Angola

Republic of the Congo

Algeria

Egypt

Iraq

Lebanon

Libya

Tunisia

Turkey

Cyprus

Italy

Ukraine

Russia

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Burundi

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Ethiopia

Kenya

Mali

Nigeria

Sudan

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

On Security

Somalia

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Yemen

Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

Guidance

Australia

China

France

Iran

The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

Greece

Belgium

Poland

The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

COVID-19

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

The Jihadist Wars

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

Destroyed homes are seen in the village of Aldeia da Paz outside Macomia, Mozambique, after a militant attack on Aug. 24, 2019. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Militants in Mozambique will continue to gain ground near the liquified natural gas (LNG) park under construction in the country’s north until the government deems the economic and political threat large enough to warrant foreign support. 

In Mozambique, Militants Will Gain Ground Until They Threaten the Government

Argentina

Mexico

United States

Venezuela

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Germany

United Kingdom

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Afghanistan

India

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2020 Annual Forecast as 2021 Approaches

Army vehicles patrol the roads on the outskirts of a village in northern Mozambique on May 26, 2016. 

_Energy

The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.

To Protect Its Energy Projects, Total Joins Mozambique's Counterterrorism Fight 

Soldiers patrol the streets in Mocimboa da Praia, Mozambique, on March 7, 2018. 

Recent militant activity in northern Mozambique suggests a possible evolution of capabilities that could eventually grow to threaten LNG operations in Cabo Delgado.

An Insurgent Offensive Looms Large Over Mozambique's Energy Projects

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project

Tanzania, Mozambique: Countries Pledge To Bolster Bilateral Trade, Portending Sustained Counterterrorism Cooperation

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

Mozambique: ADNOC Acquires 10% Stake in Mozambique's Area 4 Block

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

Mozambique: EU Training Mission Extension Clears Path for Transition to Military Assistance Mission

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

Mozambique: South Africa Completes Withdrawal From Cabo Delgado

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support