Assessments

Burkina Faso

Chad

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

France

French soldiers patrol the streets of Gao, Mali, on Dec. 4, 2021. 

Military & Security

France’s updated military posture in the African region focuses on supporting national armies, especially Niger’s. But this is unlikely to offset the impact of Paris’ withdrawal from Mali. 

France’s New Approach to the Sahel: Preparing for Sustained Regional Instability

Columns

On Security

Somalia

United States

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019, during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The Jihadist Wars

The War in Afghanistan

In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain.

Jihadist Terrorism After the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The Fight Against the Islamic State

French soldiers monitor an area along Burkina Faso’s border with Mali and Niger on Nov. 10, 2019. 

Politics

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

France's failure to stabilize the region will make it difficult to reduce its counterterrorism operations without triggering more violence.

In the Sahel, a French Exit Will Be Easier Said Than Done

Security

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Snapshots

By complicating French-led military operations, the overthrow of Mali's president risks creating more space jihadist activity in the country and the wider Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. 

In Mali, a Coup at the Core of the Sahel's Counterterrorism Fight

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is a study in diversity. Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, the region is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources. It&rsquo;s no surprise that it captured the imagination of Europe&rsquo;s earliest explorers &mdash; and that it continues to capture the imagination of current world powers eager to exploit it. And yet despite the region&rsquo;s diversity, Sub-Saharan African countries have common challenges &mdash; transnational terrorism, rapid population growth, endemic poverty and corruption &mdash; that prevent them from capitalizing on their economic potential. The coming years will be critical for the region, especially as its political institutions mature in a rapidly globalizing world.</p>

Cameroon

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Kenya

Mozambique

Nigeria

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

United Kingdom

Austria

Russia

Algeria

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Egypt

Libya

Tunisia

Sri Lanka

U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie speaks as a picture of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen during a press briefing Oct. 30, 2019, at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia.

Stratfor Threat Lens

The Islamic State has lost its territory and leader, and the jihadist struggle has entered its post-"caliphate" phase.

The Global Jihadist Movement in 2020: The Threat Lens Forecast

2020 Annual Forecast

Central African Republic

Western efforts in the Sahel, like the U.N. mission in Mali, are unlikely to wane anytime soon, but neither are they likely to expand in the face of growing militancy. This will open opportunities for Russia to expand its footprint in the Sahel.

Echoes of the Cold War

Governments in the militant-plagued region will seek to maximize Moscow's support while maintaining ties with their Western allies.

Western Reluctance in the Sahel Opens Doors for Russia

Europe

French soldiers patrol the Tofa Gala forest in the Sahel region of Africa.

Escalating violence risks forcing France and its allies to rethink their counterterrorism efforts in the vast African warzone, as the question of whether foreign involvement can even improve the crumbling situation looms ever larger.

The West Offers Little Reprieve to the Sahel's Jihadist Battle

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Soldiers take snapshots of vehicles allegedly belonging to ISWAP in Baga, Nigeria, on Aug. 2, 2019. The army, faced with deteriorating morale, is pulling back to 'supercamps' and leaving civilians and aid organizations vulnerable.

The army, faced with deteriorating morale, is pulling back to 'supercamps' and leaving civilians and aid organizations vulnerable.

In Nigeria, the Islamic State West African Province Gains Steam

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

A desert scene in Niger.

The desert nation has established stronger security measures than neighboring Mali, Libya and Chad -- all of which are facing fast-expanding jihadist movements. But militants have already started to prioritize efforts in Niger.

As Growing Militancy in the Sahel Encroaches, Can Niger Hold Strong?

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged $150 million in humanitarian aid for the Sahel region and lauded Niger's "defense of democratic values" amid growing jihadist insurgencies during his visit to the Nigerien capital Niamey on March 16, Jeune Afrique reported the next day.

Niger: U.S. Grants Humanitarian Aid, Lauds 'Defense of Democratic Values'

The Malian junta announced that it is pulling out of the G5 Sahel force, which is made up of troops from Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mauritania, Reuters reported May 15.

Mali: Junta Pulls Out of G5 Sahel Force

Benin

Cote d'Ivoire

France’s intelligence chief, Bernard Emie, said he believes al Qaeda leaders in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Muslimeen (JNIM) and other affiliate groups met in central Mali to plan an expansion of their operations toward countries on the Gulf of Guinea, Le Figaro reported Feb. 1. 

West Africa: Al Qaeda Is Expanding Operations in Benin and Ivory Coast, Says French Intelligence Chief

Twin attacks in the western Nigerien villages of Tchombangou and Zaroumadareye killed approximately 100 people and injured about 75 more, marking some of the deadliest events in the country's postcolonial history, AFP reported Jan. 3.

Niger: Deadly Attacks Indicate Risk of Election-Related Violence

The United States rescued a kidnapped American citizen seized Oct. 26 in southern Niger and later held in northern Nigeria, ABC News reported Oct. 31.

Niger, Nigeria: U.S. Rescues U.S. Hostage

Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in the Sahel region of West Africa are coordinating operations and carving out respective areas of influence in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, The Washington Post reported Feb. 22.


West Africa: Cooperation Between Al Qaeda and Islamic State Groups Compounds Regional Threat in the Sahel

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The U.S. Defense Department is considering significantly reducing the number of U.S. forces in West Africa, including a possible total withdrawal, The New York Times reported Dec. 24, citing officials familiar with the deliberations.

U.S.: Pentagon Mulling West African Drawdown Amid Worsening Security Environment Across the Sahel

Militants have attacked an army base in western Niger, killing at least 71 soldiers and injuring dozens more, the BBC reported Dec. 12. 

Niger: Militant Attack on Army Base Kills at Least 71 Soldiers

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Barbados

Maldives

Malta

Ukraine

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

Iran

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Cambodia

Germany

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Brazil

Burundi

China

Finland

Israel

Nepal

Canada

Georgia

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Chile

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Costa Rica

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

Japan

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Qatar

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

Niger is a landlocked Sahelian state in West Africa that is surrounded by Algeria and Libya to the north, Chad to the east, Nigeria and Benin to the South and Burkina Faso and Mali to the west.     Niger's greatest geographic challenge is its landlocked status in the Sahel, the transition zone between the Sahara Desert and the savannahs of West Africa. Niger's lack of immediate coastal access and the global markets beyond increases the cost of imports and exports there. Moreover, it forces the country to rely on costly or lacking infrastructure and to manage relations with neighboring countries carefully to ensure its trade opportunities are not cut off.    The Sahel region has often been home to significant instability. Mali, Niger's neighbor to the west, remains the epicenter of regional militancy thanks to its weak government, internal tensions and a host of other issues. Niger, for its part, has also experienced cycles of rebellion but has largely maintained a somewhat stable, if weak and porous, security environment in recent years.     Niger's geographic position in the impoverished and unstable Sahel has done it no favors regarding infrastructure or economic development. In the years ahead, rapid population growth and strained resources will become even more pressing, causing Niger to struggle as it grapples with these problems for the foreseeable future. 

Female

Male

A Dec. 5, 2021, photo shows Timbuktu Airport, which jihadists attacked in 2013. In virtually all plausible scenarios, the security environment in the Western Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) will remain volatile with high levels of violence through the end of 2024.

SITUATION REPORTS

Niger: U.S. Grants Humanitarian Aid, Lauds 'Defense of Democratic Values'

Mali: Junta Pulls Out of G5 Sahel Force

West Africa: Al Qaeda Is Expanding Operations in Benin and Ivory Coast, Says French Intelligence Chief

Niger: Deadly Attacks Indicate Risk of Election-Related Violence

Niger, Nigeria: U.S. Rescues U.S. Hostage

West Africa: Cooperation Between Al Qaeda and Islamic State Groups Compounds Regional Threat in the Sahel

U.S.: Pentagon Mulling West African Drawdown Amid Worsening Security Environment Across the Sahel

Niger: Militant Attack on Army Base Kills at Least 71 Soldiers

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