The EU is just the latest in a long line of attempts to create a common European destiny. But if its core members cannot pull together, the Continent’s global position risks sliding even further.
By Rodger Baker
Brussels’ proposed new Pact on Migration and Asylum lacks a mechanism to distribute migrants across the bloc, meaning countries in the Mediterranean will continue to carry most of the burden.
As COVID-19 forces the EU to remain focused on recovering (and not enlarging) its economy, candidate countries such as Serbia risk veering away from the reforms they had been pursuing to earn their place in the bloc.
With COVID-19 cases again on the rise in Europe, the reintroduction of lockdown measures will force governments to also extend or expand deficit-deepening stimulus programs.
Recent disputes over fiscal policy and EU integration provide a preview for the country's 2021 general election, as well as German domestic and foreign politics for at least the next half-decade.
Ankara’s expanded activity in the Mediterranean is prompting Athens to cautiously exercise its international maritime rights to protect its own claims to offshore resources in the region.
Escalating debt and fiscal deficit levels in eurozone countries due to COVID-19 will raise the risk of financial and banking crises, as well as social unrest and higher taxes.
While private and public firms will face increased pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, the overall implementation of Brussels' new eco-friendly policies will be slow and uneven.
Recessions across the bloc could last well into 2021 as rising COVID-19 cases force governments to reintroduce economically disruptive lockdown measures.
The reintroduction of travel warnings and quarantine measures will slow Europe’s economic recovery, especially in tourism-dependent countries.
